Comments on: Bureau of Labor Statistics Pretty Sure People Got Jobs Last Month

By: Durable Goods: Pockets of Strength - Stock Market Beat - Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it.

Thu, 24 May 2007 16:14:36 +0000

[...] I frequently criticize the way economic data are reported (seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change) and the way they are often interpreted. In this case, it seems that both are painting a picture that is consistent with my own read – weakening but not too weak. Here is the chart of overall durables measured as the unadjusted year/year change as illustration: [...]

By: Jobs Growth Still Looks Like its Weakening - Stock Market Beat - Our beat is the stock market. Our job is to beat it.

Mon, 11 Dec 2006 00:02:49 +0000

[...] The thing is, 132,000 is still well within the margin of error. The charts below give a good idea of the overall trend. [...]

By: Stock Market Beat » Blog Archive » Talk About a Misleading Headline (Durable Goods Orders)

Thu, 24 Aug 2006 15:02:23 +0000

[...] Durable goods orders fell 2.4 percent in July New orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell a much greater-than-expected 2.4 percent in July as civilian aircraft and car orders tumbled, a government report showed on Thursday. If any report could serve to remind us why we prefer to look at the year/year change in non-seasonally adjusted data, this one was it. The seasonal adjustments, normal volatility and uncertainty as to whether these advance reports will be adjusted dramatically, combine to make the month/month headline data next to worthless. [...]