Bird Flu
MIT’s Technology Review tells us that the H5N1 bird flu strain may be less likely to mutate into a human-transmissible form than previously thought.
There has been a fair amount of hand-wringing over this recently, particularly by bearish economists who worry that a deadly flu outbreak would keep people indoors and thus have a chilling effect on the economy.
But the math just doesn’t suggest it will be that bad. If everyone stayed home for two weeks (4% of the year) and there was simply no economic activity, it would take a year’s worth of normal growth off of GDP. And there is a fair amount of economic activity that would simply be on auto-pilot during that time. Mortgage payments would be made. Many paychecks would continue to be paid. So even the 4% seems a stretch. Add in the fact that in a typical year only 10-20% of people get the flu and we are now talking about a small fraction of a percent if just those people stay home.
For flus that are not treated by the flu shot, such as this strain, one of the best ways to prevent an outbreak is for sick people to stay home. If you are concerned about the bird flu and your boss is the type who insists on sick people coming to work, your best bet may simply be to change jobs. Wouldn’t you rather work with people interested in your well-being anyway?
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