http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/05/19/its-all-about-supply-and-demand-for-chip-stocks/ Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it. Sun, 12 Oct 2008 15:12:14 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.1 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/05/19/its-all-about-supply-and-demand-for-chip-stocks/#comment-53087 Semiconductor Pricing Near a Bottom? | Stock Market Beat Sun, 19 Aug 2007 11:01:06 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/05/19/its-all-about-supply-and-demand-for-chip-stocks/#comment-53087 [...] warned most of last year that building oversupply would harm pricing for semiconductors, and the latest PPI data bear that [...] […] warned most of last year that building oversupply would harm pricing for semiconductors, and the latest PPI data bear that […]

]]> http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/05/19/its-all-about-supply-and-demand-for-chip-stocks/#comment-37563 Semi Industry Association Cuts Sales Forecast - Stock Market Beat - Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it. Wed, 13 Jun 2007 15:06:04 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/05/19/its-all-about-supply-and-demand-for-chip-stocks/#comment-37563 [...] The fact that end market demand is “in line with previous forecasts” but sales are weaker means there is exactly the type of overcapacity-related price cuts that I have been forecasting for some time. Back when the rest of the world didn’t seem to be on board that argument it made me bearish about the prospects for semiconductor stocks. Now that everyone understands what is going on, the prospects that the predicted outcome will disappoint investors has been reduced, and I am no longer bearish. [...] […] The fact that end market demand is “in line with previous forecasts” but sales are weaker means there is exactly the type of overcapacity-related price cuts that I have been forecasting for some time. Back when the rest of the world didn’t seem to be on board that argument it made me bearish about the prospects for semiconductor stocks. Now that everyone understands what is going on, the prospects that the predicted outcome will disappoint investors has been reduced, and I am no longer bearish. […]

]]> http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/05/19/its-all-about-supply-and-demand-for-chip-stocks/#comment-35845 SMH: Money Where My Mouth Is - Stock Market Beat - Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it. Thu, 07 Jun 2007 16:02:55 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/05/19/its-all-about-supply-and-demand-for-chip-stocks/#comment-35845 [...] SMH: Money Where My Mouth Is After long having a bearish outlook toward semiconductor stocks, I recently started noting more favorable indicators. While I am not quite turning bullish, I am becoming not-bearish. And now I am putting my money squarely in the not-bearish camp by selling naked put options on the SMH at $35. [...] […] SMH: Money Where My Mouth Is After long having a bearish outlook toward semiconductor stocks, I recently started noting more favorable indicators. While I am not quite turning bullish, I am becoming not-bearish. And now I am putting my money squarely in the not-bearish camp by selling naked put options on the SMH at $35. […]

]]> http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/05/19/its-all-about-supply-and-demand-for-chip-stocks/#comment-35113 Semiconductor Inventory Levels - Stock Market Beat - Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it. Mon, 04 Jun 2007 17:14:01 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/05/19/its-all-about-supply-and-demand-for-chip-stocks/#comment-35113 [...] In the interest of digging deeper into the semiconductor oversupply issues, this post will begin a series of data gathering on important ratios for companies in the industry. Hopefully the process will provide insight toward the companies better (or worse) positioned to take advantage of the next upturn or weather the downturn. Today I used Zacks Research Wizard to get the recent Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) and Inventory levels for semiconductor industry participants over the last several quarters. I made some modest limitations on the share volume and market cap, but still ended up with more than 50 names. I used trailing twelve month COGS and the average of the last five quarters (for a beginning, ending and average) of inventory to calculate Days Sales in Inventory. [...] […] In the interest of digging deeper into the semiconductor oversupply issues, this post will begin a series of data gathering on important ratios for companies in the industry. Hopefully the process will provide insight toward the companies better (or worse) positioned to take advantage of the next upturn or weather the downturn. Today I used Zacks Research Wizard to get the recent Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) and Inventory levels for semiconductor industry participants over the last several quarters. I made some modest limitations on the share volume and market cap, but still ended up with more than 50 names. I used trailing twelve month COGS and the average of the last five quarters (for a beginning, ending and average) of inventory to calculate Days Sales in Inventory. […]

]]> http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/05/19/its-all-about-supply-and-demand-for-chip-stocks/#comment-7268 More Support for Our Semiconductor Thesis - Stock Market Beat - Our beat is the stock market. Our job is to beat it. Mon, 04 Dec 2006 20:30:05 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/05/19/its-all-about-supply-and-demand-for-chip-stocks/#comment-7268 [...] We have been pointing to the overcapacity threat for many months. As all of the equipment ordered recently comes on line, inventory will pile up and the manufacturers will stop ordering equipment until the inventories start working down. The author may hold a position in the securities discussed. The author's current holdings are as follows: Long: Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA); Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion's Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Ceradyne (CRDN) put options; Lion's Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Plantronics (PLT) put options; [...] […] We have been pointing to the overcapacity threat for many months. As all of the equipment ordered recently comes on line, inventory will pile up and the manufacturers will stop ordering equipment until the inventories start working down. The author may hold a position in the securities discussed. The author’s current holdings are as follows: Long: Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA - Annual Report; Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion’s Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Ceradyne (CRDN) put options; Lion’s Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Plantronics (PLT) put options; […]

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