Solar Power Article Raises More Questions Than Answers
We recently started exploring the solar power industry, noting first that Plantronics (PLT) had installed a new solar power system and later that MEMC was holding up better than other semiconductor equipment suppliers due to its exposure to solar cell manufacturers, who also use silicon wafers. We admit to being new to the industry, so we aren’t up to speed on the intricacies. Therefore, this article raised more questions than answers for us.
Nanosolar Inc., a privately held solar energy company, said on Wednesday it plans to build what it called the world’s largest factory to produce solar cells, in the San Francisco Bay Area. The plant would manufacture about 200 million solar cells a year with a total energy capacity of 430 megawatts, or enough to power more than 300,000 homes, Nanosolar said in a release.
The company… also plans to build a solar panel fabrication plant in Berlin, Germany. The company said it arranged a $100 million financing package for the projects, including $75 million of preferred stock.
Nanosolar and other private solar companies such as Miasole and Heliovolt use a thin-film technology that requires only a fraction of the amount of silicon needed in conventional solar cells.
California is pushing a $2.9 billion program to make the state one of the world’s largest producers of solar power. The “California Solar Initiative” aims to add 3,000 megawatts of solar energy over 11 years through the installation of 1 million solar energy systems at homes, businesses, farms, schools and public buildings. The state currently generates about 100 megawatts of solar electricity, enough to power about 80,000 homes.
Now our questions:
- Does Nanosolar’s technology still use wafers?
- How does the answer to question 1 affect MEMC?
- How costly is Nanosolar’s technology relative to both traditional energy sources and current solar technology?
- How expensive would oil have to be for Nanosolar’s technology to be cost competitive without subsidies?
- How much sun is required to make solar effective?
We believe solar tech will ultimately create an investment boom that puts the telecom/Internet bubble to shame. However, we think there is a load of time to figure out the answers to these and many other questions before committing to one of the few investable plays currently available.
If you have the low-down, or can point us to good articles, please share it in the comments below.
Disclosure: William Trent has a long position in SMH.
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I would like to know, if you have or are going to have any stock for The Nanosolar Inc. I am interested in buying some of it.
Thank You
Karen Wallace
karenbrustin@hotmail.com
Nanosolar’s technology is speculative presently. Printing on rolls of metal isn’t easy. The metal surface varies. Even with expensive electropolishing the surface often has imperfections that are much higher, or deeper, than the total solar cell thickness. And as many have found out; one imperfection can degrade the surrounding cell material for a radius of several cm. Metal rollers will be used and they have bearings which are oil lubricated. The lubricant can creep onto the rollers and contaminate the printed semiconductor. And the total world supply of indium and gallium is not large. The flat panel display market uses most of the indium. If anyone does start making CIGS cells in volume the price of indium will increase markedly. I haven’t seen any technical breakthroughs that would give me any certainty that this would ever work. The key tipoff is to watch the announced schedule for slippage. If the slippage (delay) is over a year or two it probably won’t succeed.