September 5th, 2006
Employment Clearly Slowing
We think the seasonally-adjusted employment numbers are essentially bunk. We think whether or not the seasonally-adjusted estimate (it will be revised at least three times) from the labor department is approximately equal to what the economists were expecting it to be is irrelevant.
We do think that the unadjusted year/year change, in terms of growth in the labor force, gives us important information about the state of the economy and consumers’ ability to spend.
Right now, it is telling us things are slowing down.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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