Comments on: A Turning Point Near for Semiconductors? http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/09/20/a-turning-point-near-for-semiconductors/ Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it. Tue, 06 Jan 2009 01:35:52 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.1 By: Stock Market Beat » Blog Archive » Still Too Many Semiconductors Coming http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/09/20/a-turning-point-near-for-semiconductors/#comment-3901 Stock Market Beat » Blog Archive » Still Too Many Semiconductors Coming Tue, 03 Oct 2006 03:59:49 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/09/20/a-turning-point-near-for-semiconductors/#comment-3901 [...] The problem is, no one seems to have told the semiconductor manufacturers that growth has slowed down. In August they placed orders for nearly 70% more semiconductor manufacturing equipment than they ordered one year ago. By comparing the growth rates from the SIA reported chip sales to the equipment order data from Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) yields the following chart: [...] […] The problem is, no one seems to have told the semiconductor manufacturers that growth has slowed down. In August they placed orders for nearly 70% more semiconductor manufacturing equipment than they ordered one year ago. By comparing the growth rates from the SIA reported chip sales to the equipment order data from Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) yields the following chart: […]

]]> By: Trent http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/09/20/a-turning-point-near-for-semiconductors/#comment-3637 Trent Mon, 25 Sep 2006 11:43:35 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/09/20/a-turning-point-near-for-semiconductors/#comment-3637 We have found predictive value in the analysis, but the overlay is very sensitive to scaling and other factors. It is easy to make it appear as though there is a stronger or weaker connection than there actually is. It also seems as though the market is increasingly efficient, in the sense that the reaction to this occurs earlier and earlier in the cycle. As we say in the post, it would be fair for bulls to argue that the turn was anticipated in the recent rally. We have found predictive value in the analysis, but the overlay is very sensitive to scaling and other factors. It is easy to make it appear as though there is a stronger or weaker connection than there actually is.

It also seems as though the market is increasingly efficient, in the sense that the reaction to this occurs earlier and earlier in the cycle. As we say in the post, it would be fair for bulls to argue that the turn was anticipated in the recent rally.

]]> By: gsmkts http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/09/20/a-turning-point-near-for-semiconductors/#comment-3332 gsmkts Wed, 20 Sep 2006 21:52:48 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/09/20/a-turning-point-near-for-semiconductors/#comment-3332 A useful chart would be to overlay the SMH over the chart you have in your writeup - i.e. how quickly did the stocks react to this data? Is it possible to publish that chart and/or is it possible to get at the data used to get the supply/demand chart. A useful chart would be to overlay the SMH over the chart you have in your writeup - i.e. how quickly did the stocks react to this data? Is it possible to publish that chart and/or is it possible to get at the data used to get the supply/demand chart.

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