http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/10/02/still-too-many-semiconductors-coming/ Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it. Mon, 01 Dec 2008 22:54:07 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.1 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/10/02/still-too-many-semiconductors-coming/#comment-7507 National Semiconductor (NSM) Faces Inventory Glut? Who Would’ve Guessed? - Stock Market Beat - Our beat is the stock market. Our job is to beat it. Fri, 08 Dec 2006 02:24:01 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/10/02/still-too-many-semiconductors-coming/#comment-7507 [...] We have written once or twice… per week… about what we have seen as a rising risk of overcapacity at the semiconductor companies. Some people have written it off to preparations for holiday sales. “Inventories have risen both at semiconductor manufacturers and in the channel in recent months, but remain in line with requirements for the holiday build season,” [SIA President George] Scalise concluded. [...] […] We have written once or twice… per week… about what we have seen as a rising risk of overcapacity at the semiconductor companies. Some people have written it off to preparations for holiday sales. “Inventories have risen both at semiconductor manufacturers and in the channel in recent months, but remain in line with requirements for the holiday build season,” [SIA President George] Scalise concluded. […]

]]> http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/10/02/still-too-many-semiconductors-coming/#comment-4135 Stock Market Beat » Blog Archive » STMicro Has the Right Idea Tue, 10 Oct 2006 17:25:31 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/10/02/still-too-many-semiconductors-coming/#comment-4135 [...] ST Microelectronics (STM) lowered its chip sales forecast for 2006 and believes sales will grow 6-11% in 2007.  The 6-11% is higher than the average industry growth of the last 10 years, and we would expect growth nearer the bottom than the top end of that range, but we don’t think it is an outrageous forecast. What’s more, STM has been doing what we believe all semiconductor firms should be doing: namely reducing spending on new capacity. According to their most recent earnings release: Capital expenditures were $399 million in the 2006 second quarter and $696 million for the first half, compared to $363 million and $927 million in the 2005 similar periods, respectively. [...] […] ST Microelectronics (STM) lowered its chip sales forecast for 2006 and believes sales will grow 6-11% in 2007.  The 6-11% is higher than the average industry growth of the last 10 years, and we would expect growth nearer the bottom than the top end of that range, but we don’t think it is an outrageous forecast. What’s more, STM has been doing what we believe all semiconductor firms should be doing: namely reducing spending on new capacity. According to their most recent earnings release: Capital expenditures were $399 million in the 2006 second quarter and $696 million for the first half, compared to $363 million and $927 million in the 2005 similar periods, respectively. […]

]]> http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/10/02/still-too-many-semiconductors-coming/#comment-3988 Stock Market Beat » Blog Archive » Wishful Thinking From Semiconductor Manufacturers Thu, 05 Oct 2006 17:27:16 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/10/02/still-too-many-semiconductors-coming/#comment-3988 [...] If they are so convinced that demand will be up a steady 7% per year (they are probably a little optimistic) why are they ordering 70% more semiconductor manufacturing equipment than they did last year? As anyone in the chemical industry could easily tell them, cycles aren’t caused by swings in demand - they are caused by swings in supply. And supply is starting to swing toward the side of “too much.” [...] […] If they are so convinced that demand will be up a steady 7% per year (they are probably a little optimistic) why are they ordering 70% more semiconductor manufacturing equipment than they did last year? As anyone in the chemical industry could easily tell them, cycles aren’t caused by swings in demand - they are caused by swings in supply. And supply is starting to swing toward the side of “too much.” […]

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