Adobe Riding the New Product Wave
Investors Business Daily (via Yahoo! Finance) published an article on Adobe’s product cycle that we believe hits the main points spot on. We have written about this several times, and are happy to say that our thesis is playing out pretty much as expected. According to Investor’s Business Daily:
A big question hanging over Adobe is how much of a dip in revenue it can expect in its creative solutions unit ahead of the Creative Suite 3 launch. Some buyers looking to upgrade might decide to wait until CS3 comes out, says Ross MacMillan, a Jefferies & Co. analyst.”No one really knows quite how sharp the deceleration is going to be ahead of the (Creative Suite 3) product cycle, particularly in the January quarter,” MacMillan said. “Everybody knows it (CS3) is coming. So how do you stimulate purchases of the existing CS2 product and the other products that sit within it, like Photoshop?”
The funny thing about this is that a bigger dip could be the most bullish scenario, as it would indicate a higher level of demand building up in anticipation of the CS3 launch. Of course, that wouldn’t be the first time Adobe’s stock reacted in unexpected ways to news.
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Hey William,
Hey JLP,
Since you cover the financial world on your blog I thought you’d be interested in this story. Motley Fool is a client of my agency’s and they’re launching a program called CAPS that’s sort of a mash-up between stock picking and getting Netflix recommendations from your friends. In essence, when you pull up a stock’s information you’re also shown what the CAPS community of players thinks of that stock along with the usual information on stock performance and company news. This is very much a program that is designed to tap into the wisdom of crowds and expose people to stocks they may not have otherwise heard of, much like Netflix did for movies.
If you’ve got a Wall Street Journal login they did a story on it the other day. Here’s the link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115984282859680846.html
Here are some other links with commentary on the program for your reference
Motley Fool: http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06092624.htm
HackingNetflix: http://www.hackingnetflix.com/2006/09/fool_caps_recom.html
B2B blog: http://business2.blogs.com/business2blog/2006/09/the_wisdom_of_f.html
rC3.og: http://rc3.org/ofinterest/
Robleto: http://www.robleto.com/2006/09/introducing-caps.asp
Let me know if you have any questions on this.
–Chris
[…] On the other hand, back in October we said: The funny thing about this is that a bigger dip could be the most bullish scenario, as it would indicate a higher level of demand building up in anticipation of the CS3 launch. Of course, that wouldn’t be the first time Adobe’s stock reacted in unexpected ways to news. […]