Semiconductor Fundamentals Likely to Bottom Soon - We Hope
As we anticipated, the latest semiconductor sales report suggests that supply and demand imbalances will no longer worsen, as it now seems likely that within a month or two orders for new semiconductor equipment will cease growing faster than can be supported by end demand. A few months after that, the inventory problem should start to clear up.
That is, of course, assuming end demand stays strong. Semiconductor Industry Association President George Scalise issued some unusual cautionary words:
Scalise noted that as individual consumers drive an increasing proportion of worldwide semiconductor sales, the industry is more susceptible to fluctuations in overall economic conditions. “There are signs of slower overall economic growth and a slowing economy could impact sales of semiconductors in the coming months,” Scalise said.
Usually Scalise is (from our perspective) hopelessly upbeat. We have thrown water on his comments here, here and here. So we aren’t quite sure to make of his sudden case of the willies. It could be a contrary indicator and mean things are finally turning around. Or he could be as upbeat as normal, which would mean things are really bad.
Disclosure: William Trent has a long position in SMH.
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[…] We’ve been harping on this theme for months. The remaining question is how far ahead the market will look as the fundamentals (sales and margins) continue to deteriorate. The fact that mainstream media has taken notice may be another signal that it is (at least mostly) played out. The author may hold a position in the securities discussed. The author’s current holdings are as follows: Long: FedEx (FDX - Annual Report) put options; Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA - Annual Report; Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion’s Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Ceradyne (CRDN) put options; Lion’s Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Plantronics (PLT) put options; […]
[…] Last month we were surprised to hear some cautionary words out of Semiconductor Industry Association President and chief cheerleader George Scalise. At the time, we said it could either be a positive contrary indicator or a sign things were really bad. Whatever the case, it seems to have passed. According to the association’s latest press release: The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today reported that global sales of semiconductors reached $22.7 billion in November, an increase of 11.3 percent from the $20.4 billion in November 2005. Sales increased by 3.1 percent from the $22.0 billion reported in October. The November sales figure was the fifth-consecutive month of record sales. For the first 11 months of 2006, worldwide semiconductor sales totaled $225.1 billion, an increase of 9.4 percent from the like period of 2005 when sales were $205.7 billion.Consumer applications continued to drive demand of microchip sales in November. According to the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), unit sales of consumer electronic products such as flat-panel displays and digital cameras were ahead of forecasts in the holiday season and resulted in strong revenue growth despite some erosion in the average selling price for some products. The CEA reported that November unit sales of digital cameras in the U.S. market were up 30 percent over November 2005 and up over 40 percent for the first 11 months of 2006. Semiconductor product lines that showed strong sequential growth included DSPs (digital signal processors), up 12.3 percent; DRAMs (dynamic random-access memories) up 6.8 percent; NAND flash up 6.3 percent; and microprocessors, up 4.3 percent. […]