Job Growth Slowing Down Fast
The U.S. economy added a modest 97,000 jobs in February, the smallest gain in two years, but job growth in prior months was stronger than first thought and the unemployment rate dropped, the government said on Friday, easing fears over economic weakness.
Adding to a picture of economic resilience, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly more than expected in January to $59.1 billion as U.S. exports hit a record high, a separate report showed.
Addressing the second issue first, the other way to look at the trade deficit improving is that U.S. consumers are buying less. We also, thanks to a weakening dollar, had higher exports - all of which is part of the natural corrective system for economic imbalances such as our trade deficit. But the lower imports certainly jibes with the weak consumer confidence report last week. For some time we have been hearing that the housing woes wouldn’t spread and/or worsen as long as employment remained strong.
So on to the first issue. Is employment strong?
Total employment is still growing, but the rate of growth has slowed to less than 1.5%. What had looked like a possible acceleration in late 2006 now appears to have been a mirage.
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Exactly what Bureau of Labor Statistics report is this article and graphic based on? I could not independently verify it.
I compare total employment in a given month (non-seasonally adjusted) to the same number in the same month the prior year. By subtracting last year from this year I get the change, and the percent change is based on the prior year number.
The data are revised over time, and I use the latest available revision for all months.
[…] This is something of a confirmation of what we saw in the employment report last week. Things are slowing down, despite the arguments that the housing malaise wouldn’t spread. As we noted earlier today we were surprised Texas Instruments was able to tighten their guidance rather than lower it outright. A new cel phone probably isn’t a necessity for most consumers, and is an easy way to avoid some spending. What will the market reaction be if they do miss? […]