April 3rd, 2007

Semis: Does This Look Like a Bottom to You?

Having given you our take on the semiconductor sales data yesterday, We had to laugh when we saw this article from Tech Trader Daily – Semis: Feb Sales Data Look Weak; Are We Nearing A Bottom?

The Street this morning agrees on the obvious conclusion of the latest SIA data: it was weak. “Weak February results,” “shipments weaker than typical,” “weakness in both units and pricing,” “data appears generally weak,” “weaker than normal seasonality,” said analysts this morning at J.P. Morgan, Wedbush Morgan, Robert W. Baird, Lehman Brothers and UBS, respectively.But there is also a growing consensus that we are at or near a bottom in semi fundamentals, and that a recovery is just around the corner; it is a theory tied to the notion that the recent inventory correction in the sector is nearly completed.

Oh, really? Here’s a chart we’d like the analysts Eric quoted to look at, which is a total semiconductor sales on a trailing 12-month basis since 1995, based on data from the Semiconductor Industry Association:

semiconductorsales.jpg

So, Christopher Danely, analyst at J.P. Morgan, Craig Berger, of Wedbush Morgan, Lehman’s Tim Luke, and Uche Orji, of UBS: Can you tell me why this looks like a bottom to you?

Disclosure: William Trent has a long position in SMH.

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Topics: AGR, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Altera (ALTR), Analog Devices (ADI), Applied Materials (AMAT), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Cree (CREE), Freescale (FSL), Intel (INTC), Intersil (ISIL), KLA-Tencor (KLAC), LSI Corp. (LSI), Lam Research (LRCX), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Linear Technology (LLTC), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM), MicroSemi (MSCC), Micron Technology (MU), NVIDIA (NVDA), National Semiconductor (NSM), ON Semiconductor (ONNN), PowerWave Technologies (PWAV), STMicroelectronics (STM), Sandisk (SNDK), Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH), Semiconductors, Silicon Laboratories (SLAB), Standard Microsystems (SMSC), Stock Market, Supertex (SUPX), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Texas Instruments (TXN), United Microelectronics (UMC), Xilinx (XLNX) | RSS

One Comment on “Semis: Does This Look Like a Bottom to You?”

  1. Tim Arcuri Tells it Like it Is: Over-Capitalized Sector Should Buy Back More Stock - Stock Market Beat - Our beat is the stock market. Our job is to beat it.

    [...] Semis: Does This Look Like a Bottom to You? [...]

    April 3rd, 2007 at 9:30 am

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