http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2007/04/15/the-week-ahead-15-april-2007/ Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it. Sun, 07 Sep 2008 16:05:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.1 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2007/04/15/the-week-ahead-15-april-2007/#comment-25852 SAP: Strong Sales and Earnings Despite Currency Headwind - Stock Market Beat - Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it. Fri, 20 Apr 2007 22:37:30 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2007/04/15/the-week-ahead-15-april-2007/#comment-25852 [...] When we previewed the report, we said “consensus expects $0.36 on $2.93 billion this quarter and $0.44 on $3.17 billion next. Both seem on the high side.” According to Yahoo’s currency converter, they did $2.99 billion in revenue and $0.35 in EPS. SAP continued to gain share for the first quarter of 2007. Based on software and software related service revenues on a rolling four quarter basis, SAP’s worldwide share of Core Enterprise Applications vendors(3), which account for approximately $34.8 billion in software and software related service revenues as defined by the Company based on industry analyst research, increased to 25.1% for the four quarter period ended March 31, 2007 compared to 24.5% for the four quarter period ended December 31, 2006. Compared to the four quarter period ended March 31, 2006, the year-over-year share gain was 2.4 percentage points. We believe it. Sales growth at other major vendors of software and services has not been nearly so strong. IBM (IBM - Annual Report), for example, grew 4% constant-currency and 7% as reported. Acquisitions make it difficult to ascertain Oracle’s (ORCL - Annual Report) underlying growth. Guidance was also strong: The Company expects full-year 2007 software and software related service revenues to increase in a range of 12% - 14% at constant currencies compared to 2006 growth of 12% at constant currencies. [...] […] When we previewed the report, we said “consensus expects $0.36 on $2.93 billion this quarter and $0.44 on $3.17 billion next. Both seem on the high side.” According to Yahoo’s currency converter, they did $2.99 billion in revenue and $0.35 in EPS. SAP continued to gain share for the first quarter of 2007. Based on software and software related service revenues on a rolling four quarter basis, SAP’s worldwide share of Core Enterprise Applications vendors(3), which account for approximately $34.8 billion in software and software related service revenues as defined by the Company based on industry analyst research, increased to 25.1% for the four quarter period ended March 31, 2007 compared to 24.5% for the four quarter period ended December 31, 2006. Compared to the four quarter period ended March 31, 2006, the year-over-year share gain was 2.4 percentage points. We believe it. Sales growth at other major vendors of software and services has not been nearly so strong. IBM (IBM - Annual Report), for example, grew 4% constant-currency and 7% as reported. Acquisitions make it difficult to ascertain Oracle’s (ORCL - Annual Report) underlying growth. Guidance was also strong: The Company expects full-year 2007 software and software related service revenues to increase in a range of 12% - 14% at constant currencies compared to 2006 growth of 12% at constant currencies. […]

]]> http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2007/04/15/the-week-ahead-15-april-2007/#comment-25845 XRX: Xerox Managing Expectations Better Than Operations - Stock Market Beat - Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it. Fri, 20 Apr 2007 22:35:18 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2007/04/15/the-week-ahead-15-april-2007/#comment-25845 [...] When we issued our earnings preview, we said: Xerox (XRX) - Consensus expects $0.20 on $3.82 billion this quarter and $0.27 on $4.09 next. The estimates have come down but are at the high end of revised guidance. [...] […] When we issued our earnings preview, we said: Xerox (XRX) - Consensus expects $0.20 on $3.82 billion this quarter and $0.27 on $4.09 next. The estimates have come down but are at the high end of revised guidance. […]

]]> http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2007/04/15/the-week-ahead-15-april-2007/#comment-25702 GOOG: Google Solves Mystery Over Whereabouts Of Yahoo’s Revenues - Stock Market Beat - Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it. Fri, 20 Apr 2007 02:25:31 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2007/04/15/the-week-ahead-15-april-2007/#comment-25702 [...] So that’s where Yahoo’s revenue’s went. As we noted in our earnings preview, consensus expected $3.30 (non-GAAP) on $2.5 billion in revenue (net of TAC) this quarter and $3.41 on $2.63 billion next. Despite being twice Yahoo’s size, Google grew its revenues nine times as fast. The financial statements yielded virtually nothing worth criticizing, so we’re stuck with Google’s practice of not issuing guidance. For more information, see all articles on: Stock Market, GOOG, YHOO [...] […] So that’s where Yahoo’s revenue’s went. As we noted in our earnings preview, consensus expected $3.30 (non-GAAP) on $2.5 billion in revenue (net of TAC) this quarter and $3.41 on $2.63 billion next. Despite being twice Yahoo’s size, Google grew its revenues nine times as fast. The financial statements yielded virtually nothing worth criticizing, so we’re stuck with Google’s practice of not issuing guidance. For more information, see all articles on: Stock Market, GOOG, YHOO […]

]]> http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2007/04/15/the-week-ahead-15-april-2007/#comment-25464 YHOO: Hey Yahoo! Where’re the Revenues? - Stock Market Beat - Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it. Wed, 18 Apr 2007 16:53:17 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2007/04/15/the-week-ahead-15-april-2007/#comment-25464 [...] Consensus estimates were for $1.21 billion in sales - nearly 25% higher than Yahoo! reported.  There is no way 7% year/year growth can support a 62x trailing P/E multiple. When the stock rallied in October on the imminent release of the new “Panama” search marketing system, we said: Ultimately it will hinge on whether Panama is truly a better mousetrap. If it is (we’ll know in a couple of quarters) then yes, the worst is probably over. If Panama falls flat, however, things could get much uglier. Given that the Panama system only really launched on March 30 it is a bit premature to say it has fallen flat. However, comments on the conference call that “we expect that this year our growth will be broadly consistent with the U.S. display market” (i.e. not the search market) suggest it isn’t particularly fizzy either. For more information, see all articles on: Stock Market, YHOO [...] […] Consensus estimates were for $1.21 billion in sales - nearly 25% higher than Yahoo! reported.  There is no way 7% year/year growth can support a 62x trailing P/E multiple. When the stock rallied in October on the imminent release of the new “Panama” search marketing system, we said: Ultimately it will hinge on whether Panama is truly a better mousetrap. If it is (we’ll know in a couple of quarters) then yes, the worst is probably over. If Panama falls flat, however, things could get much uglier. Given that the Panama system only really launched on March 30 it is a bit premature to say it has fallen flat. However, comments on the conference call that “we expect that this year our growth will be broadly consistent with the U.S. display market” (i.e. not the search market) suggest it isn’t particularly fizzy either. For more information, see all articles on: Stock Market, YHOO […]

]]> http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2007/04/15/the-week-ahead-15-april-2007/#comment-25463 IBM: IBM Earnings Nothing to Write Home About - Stock Market Beat - Our beat: The stock market. Our job: Beat it. Wed, 18 Apr 2007 16:52:34 +0000 http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2007/04/15/the-week-ahead-15-april-2007/#comment-25463 [...] We don’t know how much the estimates incorporated currency issues, but the $22 billion was slightly ahead of consensus estimates for sales.  However, 4% growth on a constant currency basis (or even 7% growth as reported) is hardly anything to write home about. The stock traded down after market hours. Our assessment that “it would be a near-disaster if they miss” appears to have been narrowly averted. Although sales in the Global Services division  (IBM’s largest) were up 8% year/year, contract signings were 2% lower than last year. This will make it difficult to maintain the current growth rate, particularly since businesses already appear to be pulling back. In response to a conference call question about the fairly weak growth during the quarter in the U.S. management replied: And the U.S. had actually a pretty good January and a pretty good February. The falloff was really in the last month of the quarter. And as I said earlier Toni, that was predominantly in our enterprise customer set. [...] […] We don’t know how much the estimates incorporated currency issues, but the $22 billion was slightly ahead of consensus estimates for sales.  However, 4% growth on a constant currency basis (or even 7% growth as reported) is hardly anything to write home about. The stock traded down after market hours. Our assessment that “it would be a near-disaster if they miss” appears to have been narrowly averted. Although sales in the Global Services division  (IBM’s largest) were up 8% year/year, contract signings were 2% lower than last year. This will make it difficult to maintain the current growth rate, particularly since businesses already appear to be pulling back. In response to a conference call question about the fairly weak growth during the quarter in the U.S. management replied: And the U.S. had actually a pretty good January and a pretty good February. The falloff was really in the last month of the quarter. And as I said earlier Toni, that was predominantly in our enterprise customer set. […]

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