Employment Situation Still Normal
When the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their Employment Situation report for July last month, I called it Employment Situation Normal: All Fouled Up, saying:
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up (92,000) in July, and the unemployment rate (4.6 percent) was essentially unchanged. Employment grew in several service-providing industries. Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent.
Their version of “trending up” clearly means that it continues to be positive. At least, as far as they can tell. The 92,000 increase in July is below the 136,000 average this year, which is below the 186,000 average last year. Some would call that trending down. On the other hand, the number of jobs assumed into existence by the birth/death model was just 26,000 compared to a 2007 average of 110,000 – so based solely on the numbers reported to the BLS this report was actually stronger than others we have seen. Whether the overall report is stronger depends on how accurately the BLS statistical estimates compensates for data they are unable to initially collect.
Given that the BLS calls “trending down” “trending up” their characterization of the current report should come as no surprise.
Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-4,000) in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.
An outright decline now equals “essentially unchanged,” despite expectations prior to the report called for a 100,000 job gain. Oh, and the birth/death model added 120,000 jobs, meaning that the actual data collected by the BLS showed a decline of 124,000 jobs. The only thing “essentially unchanged” about this report is the PR gamesmanship.
The image below shows the year/year change in employment, non-seasonally adjusted but inclusive of the birth/death model.
Stock Market Beat subscribers who want to see the actual spreadsheet behind this can download it here.
[pay] Employment data [/pay]
