YUM: Yum Looks Mighty Tasty Here
My latest column is up at RealMoney.
Jim Cramer says Yum! Brands (YUM) is the best way to play China’s growing appetite for protein. Yum! management has called China its number-one growth strategy, and expects to have 3,000 stores in the country by year-end.
To my mind, the fundamentals look tasty enough to take a bite of, regardless of whether it is the “best” play on China or simply a good one. The company has three other growth prongs as well: aggressive international expansion outside China; improving U.S. brand positions, consistency and returns; and driving industry-leading long-term shareholder and franchisee value.
Free cash flow, measured as cash flow from operations less capital expenditures, has exceeded $800 million over the last 12 months. The resulting 4.7% free-cash-flow yield offers more than a 100-basis-point risk premium over 5-year Treasuries, even before considering the company’s impressive growth.
As to the growth, analysts are expecting annual earnings growth of 12% over the next five years. That estimate seems reasonable to me, as it is below the 14% growth rate experienced over the last five years, and well below the company’s sustainable growth rate based on its return on equity. At 19 times this year’s earnings, Yum!’s valuation is right in line with its five-year average. With no change in valuation, the stock could reach $41 per share simply by meeting analysts’ estimates over the next year. Combined with the 2.1% dividend yield, that implies a total return of 15%.Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.
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