Archive: Metals and Mining

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: According to the CNBC Stock Blog “Powering Your Portfolio: Uranium” what is uranium miner Cameco’s other business?

According to the CNBC Stock Blog “Powering Your Portfolio: Uranium” what is uranium miner Cameco’s other business?

Looking to miners, Canada’s Cameco (CCJ) has a market capitalization of more than $13 billion and is the world’s largest uranium producer. It also mines gold.

Cameco scores average for each of the models I follow with the exception of return potential. It gets a low score there.

Disclosure: Author is long STREETTRACKS GOLD (GLD) at time of publication.

Topics: Cameco (CCJ) | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: In “Eaton’s On Fire” which steel stock did Jim Cramer suggest buying on a pullback?

In “Eaton’s On Fire” which steel stock did Jim Cramer suggest buying on a pullback?

Elsewhere in metals, demand for iron makes Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) an attractive buy, but Cramer recommended waiting for the stock to pull back first.

Cleveland-Cliffs doesn’t show up in my models, so I have little to add.

Topics: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) | No Comments

26 More Stock Tips from the U.S. Government

My latest post is up at RealMoney.

In it, I extend yesterday’s observations about the hidden strength in durable goods orders to specific industries that might benefit. Among those industries were primary metals, computers and electronic products, and motor vehicles and parts.

These industries may prove to be a good starting point for further research.

Topics: Alcoa (AA), Apple (AAPL), ArcelorMittal (MT), Autos, Brocade (BRCD), Computer Hardware, Dell (DELL), EMC Corp. (EMC), Ford Motor (F), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), General Motors (GM), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Honda Motor (HMC), Hutchinson (HTCH), Iomega (IOM), Iron and Steel, Johnson Control (JCI), Metals and Mining, Nucor (NUE), Oshkosh (OSK), Paccar (PCAR), Quantum (QTM), Reliance Steel (RS), SPX (SPW), Sandisk (SNDK), Seagate (STX), Tenneco (TEN), Toyota Motor (TM), US Steel (X), WDC | No Comments

The Week Ahead – 21 July 2007

The Economic Calendar is quiet in the early part of this week but there are important reports at the end of the week. On Thursday is the Durable Goods report, for which the consensus estimates a 2.0% increase. On Friday is the Preliminary Estimate of 2Q GDP, which the consensus has pegged at 3.2%. That sounds a little high to me based on the economic data table I’ve been compiling.

EconomicData

Bad and Deteriorating Bad but Improving Good but Deteriorating Good and Improving
Existing Homes (June) Chicago Fed NAI (May) Consumer Confidence (June) Real Disposable Income
Employment (June) Durable Goods (June) Personal Spending (June) ISM Manufacturing (July)
New Home Sales (June) Construction Spending Retail sales (August 2007) ISM Services (June)
ATA Truck Tonnage (June) CPI (July 07) Leading Indicators (June)  
GDP (Q2 Advance) Trade deficit (July 07)    
PPI (July 07) Durable Goods (July)    
Industrial Production (July 07)      
Housing Starts (July 07)      
       
       

The Earnings Calendar is as busy as it can get. Some of the names I’ll be watching:

Monday

Tuesday

  • CH Robinson (CHRW - Annual Report) – estimates have been rising and now stand at $0.47, but Landstar (LSTR - Annual Report) disappointed.
  • CDW Corporation (CDWC) – stellar monthly sales reports have kept estimates rising. They now stand at $0.97.
  • EMC Corporation (EMC - Annual Report) – The big news is still the VMWare IPO, but it is also a decent look at enterprise tech spend.
  • Laboratory Corporation of America (LH) – The Mid Cap and Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member has been seeing positive earnings revisions and is now expected to earn $1.09 on $1.03 billion in revenue.
  • Lexmark (LXK) preannounced and will probably offer poor guidance.
  • Linear Technology (LLTC) – expected to earn $0.35 on $267 million in sales.
  • Norsk Hydro (NHY) – The Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member has no analyst coverage right now.
  • Plantronics (PLT) – my covered call position is now being cashed out so I’ve no skin in this one. But it is often volatile.
  • United Parcel Services (UPS) is a great read on the health of the economy. Expectations are $1.03 on $12.23 billion in revenue.

Wednesday

Thursday

Disclosure: William Trent has a long position in SMH.

Topics: Air Courier, Altera (ALTR), Basic Materials, CDW Corp (CDWC), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Colgate Palmolive (CL), Communications Equipment, Computer Hardware, Computer Peripherals, Computer Storage Devices, Conglomerates, Consumer Non-cyclical, Corning (GLW), Durable Goods, EMC Corp. (EMC), Economy, Electronic Instruments and Controls, Federated Investors (FII), Financials, Freeport McMoRan (FCX), GDP, Graco (GGG), Healthcare, Healthcare Facilities, Hexcel (HXL), Ingram Micro (IM), Investment Services, Iron and Steel, Laboratory Corp. of America (LH), Large Cap Watch List, Lexmark (LXK), Linear Technology (LLTC), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), Metals and Mining, Mid Cap Watch List, Miscellaneous Capital Goods, Miscellaneous Transportation, Norsk Hydro (NHY), Personal and Household Products, Plantronics (PLT), Retail (Catalog and Mail Order), Semiconductors, Services, Small Cap Watch List, Steel Dynamics (STLD), Stock Market, Technology, Texas Instruments (TXN), Transportation, United Parcel Service (UPS), Watch List, Xerox (XRX), Xilinx (XLNX) | 3 Comments

Large Cap Watch List Changes

With the end of the first quarter approaching, it is time to adjust the names in our Watch Lists. We will price all the new lists as of the close on Friday, March 30. Today we present our planned updates to the Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy).

Though less than the Small Cap Watch List and Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy), there was still relatively high turnover in this list. 14 of the original 33 names made the cut for the new list (which was trimmed to just 26 names.) Part of the reason for the turnover was to reduce overlap between the lists. One third of the Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) names appear on each of the Small Cap and Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy)s, but there is no longer any overlap between small and large.
So without further ado, the names on the chopping block from the previous list are:

3M (MMM); Continental (CTTAY.PK); Mitsui (MITSY); Anheuser-Busch (BUD); ConocoPhillips (COP); Helix Energy (HELX); IndyMac Bancorp (NDE - Annual Report); Barr Pharmaceutical (BRL - Annual Report); Quest Diagnostics (DGX); Public Storage (PSA); ITT Educational Services (ESI); Equifax (EFX); Rent-a-Center (RCII); Kroger (KR); Ricoh (RICOY); First Data Corp. (FDC); Expeditors International (EXPD); and Keyspan (KSE).

The new list is:

largecap4.jpg

Topics: 3M (MMM), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Accenture (ACN), Anheuser Busch (BUD), Apollo Group (APOL), AutoZone (AZO), Barr Pharmaceuticals (BRL), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Coach (COH), Colgate Palmolive (CL), Conoco Phillips (COP), Continental Tire (CTTAY), Davita (DVA), Equifax (EFX), Expeditors International (EXPD), First Data (FDC), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Frontier Oil (FTO), Helix Energy Solutions (HLX), IMS Health (RX), ITT Educational Services (ESI), IndyMac Bancorp (IMB), KeySpan (KSE), Kroger (KR), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), Mitsui (MITSY), Moody's (MCO), NII Holdings (NIHD), NVR (NVR), Oracle (ORCL), PG&E (PCG), Public Storage (PSA), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), RWE AG (RWEOY), Rent-A-Center (RCII), Ricoh (RICOY), S&P 500 (SPY), SEI Investments (SEIC), SIE, SallieMae (SLM), Statoil (STO), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Stock Market, Superior Energy Services (SPN), TJX Companies (TJX), UST, Watch List | 5 Comments

PPI: Stock Pick Ideas From the Economic Report

The headline PPI number, which is reported on a month/month seasonally adjusted change, is nearly meaningless to us. Instead, we like to look at the report to see if there are any industries that have unexpected or unrecognized gains or declines in pricing power.

Does it work? Well, anecdotes and evidence are two different things – but anecdotally last month’s post got off to a good start. We showed the (then-current) chart on fruit and vegetable canning inflation (the now current is below) and asked if it might signal that it is finally time to buy Del Monte (DLM - Annual Report).

PPI for Fruit and Vegetable Canning

As it turns out, it might have been a good time after all. Here is what happened to Del Monte since:

Del Monte DLM stock chart

The pricing power is still creeping up.

We also asked, “With aluminum prices rising, will Alcoa (AA) shares follow?” They did.

ppi for aluminum.gif

Alcoa price chart AA

The last two months we noted that Air Products (APD) and Praxair (PX) appeared to be defying gravity, as their share prices were rising while their pricing power was falling. The stocks are still high, but pricing power is returning so we’ll scratch that concept for now.

industrialgas.gif

apdpx.gif

We had found the strength in paint and coating prices mysterious given the slowdown in housing and autos, two big users of paint and coatings. As time passes, the pricing power seems to be evaporating.

PPI for paint and coating industry

With the pricing power in industrial valves, we’re thinking Curtiss Wright’s guidance is too conservative. The shares fell on the news.

ppi for industrial valves.gif

And last but not least, things look about as good as they can get for computer makers.

ppi computers.gif

Topics: Air Products (APD), Alcoa (AA), Curtiss Wright (CW), Del Monte Foods (DLM), Praxair (PX), Stock Market | 2 Comments

Large Cap Watch List

We asked, but no one answered. So we are taking our own counsel and breaking our Watch List into three portfolios: Small Cap, Mid Cap and Large Cap. Each will be tracked against the relevant S&P index going forward from their collective inception date of January 31 (priced at the close of market trading that day.)

For your viewing pleasure, the Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) (to be measured against the S&P 500) follows.

WatchList.jpg

Astute observers will notice less overlap between this watch list and the names in the Small Cap Watch List and Mid Cap Watch List. This was not for lack of overlap, as the smallest S&P 500 name has a market capitalization of $600 million, which would allow for complete overlap with the Mid Caps if we chose. Instead we selected an arbitrary low of $2 billion for large-cap names, which cuts off five names that are actually in the S&P 500.
In addition, we will provide a “quick and dirty” analysis of each name, with a goal of one such analysis per day. As the name implies, the quick and dirty analysis will be incomplete. We are hoping you will join in the debate and fill the gaps in our analysis.

Topics: 3M (MMM), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Accenture (ACN), Anheuser Busch (BUD), AutoZone (AZO), Barr Pharmaceuticals (BRL), Colgate Palmolive (CL), Conoco Phillips (COP), Continental Tire (CTTAY), Equifax (EFX), Expeditors International (EXPD), First Data (FDC), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Frontier Oil (FTO), Helix Energy Solutions (HLX), ITT Educational Services (ESI), IndyMac Bancorp (IMB), KeySpan (KSE), Kroger (KR), Mitsui (MITSY), NVR (NVR), Oracle (ORCL), PG&E (PCG), Public Storage (PSA), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Rent-A-Center (RCII), Ricoh (RICOY), SEI Investments (SEIC), SallieMae (SLM), Statoil (STO), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Stock Market, TJX Companies (TJX), UST | 3 Comments

PPI: Behind the Headlines

The stock market is purportedly worried by today’s higher than expected producer price inflation headline number, as investors become concerned that Goldilox will burn her lips on some hot porridge. We, on the other hand, take our usual look behind the headline numbers to see which industries are potential winners and losers in the current inflation environment.

Does rising inflation for fruit and vegetable canning suggest it is finally time to buy Del Monte (DLM - Annual Report)?

fruitvegcanning.gif

dlm.gif

Price increases in corregated boxes had previously been at odds with bad news from trucking companies. Now it looks like box prices may be rolling over.

corrugatedboxes.gif

Industrial gas prices continue to plummet. Are Air Products (APD) and Praxair (PX) defying gravity?
industrialgases.gif

apdpx.gif

With aluminum prices rising, will Alcoa (AA) shares follow?

aluminum.gif

aa.gif

The way industrial valve prices are rising, it is no surprise Curtiss Wright (CW - Annual Report) stock is as well.

industrialvalve.gif

cw.gif

Railroads may be running out of steam.

railroad.gif

unp.gif

Last but not least, telecom pricing is going through the roof.

telecom.gif

Which leads us to ask: why, again, is Verizon getting rid of its lines?

Topics: AT&T (T), Air Products (APD), Alcan (AL), Alcoa (AA), Campbell Soup (CPB), Curtiss Wright (CW), Economy, Food Processing, Praxair (PX), Stock Market, Union Pacific (UNP), Verizon (VZ) | 4 Comments

The Hunter (Phelps Dodge) Becomes the Hunted

As Bill Cara predicted several months ago, Phelps Dodge’s (PD) bid for Inco and Falconbridge has been thwarted, and has now become dinner rather than diner. Smaller Rival in Agreement to Acquire Copper Giant – New York Times:

Phelps Dodge, the world’s second-largest copper producer, will be acquired by Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold, a smaller rival that has been embroiled in environmental and human rights controversies, in a cash and stock deal worth $25.9 billion, the companies said yesterday.

The boards of both companies have approved the transaction. Under its terms, stockholders in Phelps Dodge will receive $88 a share in cash plus 0.67 of a Freeport-McMoRan share. Based on Friday’s closing, the deal is offering Phelps Dodge shareholders a 33 percent premium.

Freeport-McMoRan, which has a market capitalization of $11.3 billion compared with Phelps Dodge’s value of $19.4 billion, will finance the transactions by borrowing about $17.5 billion. Freeport said it expected the deal would be accretive to the combined company’s earnings per share and cash flow immediately.

There are several theories as to the meaning of the wave of mergers in basic materials, particularly metals. Some believe the deals are a signal of a market top, while we believe they signal a belief on the part of management teams that metals prices will remain high. For our part, we think the top will be signaled when the buyers are financial buyers rather than industry buyers.

Topics: Basic Materials, Freeport McMoRan (FCX), PD, Stock Market | No Comments

Copper Buggin

Bloomberg reports that Chinese demand for copper is cooling:

Copper demand growth in China, the world’s biggest consumer of the metal, may slow to 5.6 percent this year, as record prices prompt makers of cables, wires and air conditioners to switch to cheaper substitutes.

Consumption may be 3.8 million metric tons, Yang Changhua, senior analyst at Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., which advises the government on industry policies, said today at a conference in Nanjing in eastern China. The estimate is lower than his March prediction of consumption of 3.86 million tons and last year’s growth of 9 percent.

China’s imports of copper, which rose to a record price of $8,800 a ton in May, fell 24 percent from January to August from a year ago, the customs office said Sept. 12. Imports have been dropping year-on-year since October 2005.

This has many claiming the current copper run-up represents a bubble. Daily Dose of Optimism helps set the record straight with the history of copper supply, demand and prices. Most relevant today are these two charts:

Hmm… less supply and higher prices. Who woulda thunk it?

Topics: Basic Materials, Freeport McMoRan (FCX), PD, Stock Market | No Comments