Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD - Annual Report) announced second quarter earnings of $94 million, or $0.95 per diluted share, an increase of 7 percent when compared to $0.89 per diluted share in the second quarter of 2006 but below consensus estimates of $1.05. Diluted earnings per share decreased 6 percent from the first quarter of 2007, principally due to bond refinancing costs. Revenues increased to $911 million, 11 percent higher than the year-ago quarter and 5 percent higher than the first quarter of 2007, but below the consensus estimate of $948 million. Adjusting for the refinancing charge the earnings were $1.01, at the low end of the lowered guidance range the company provided in May. Guidance for the third quarter, however, was strong:

We expect market demand for flat-rolled steel to improve in the third quarter, following several months of inventory liquidation, which would provide the possibility of a higher third-quarter volume of shipments and
improved profit margins for sheet products. Combined with continued strong results for long products, we expect higher third-quarter earnings in the range of $1.10 to $1.15 per diluted share, subject to certain purchase accounting adjustments related to our acquisition of The Techs.

Consensus estimates for next quarter were $1.08, so the company now expects to make up for this quarter’s shortfall in the coming one. Given their forecasting success to date, we wouldn’t be surprised if investors say “show me the money.” Particularly since the company claims its customers have been liquidating inventory but the company itself has seen inventories balloon, which resulted in negative cash flow from operations for the quarter.

The Economic Calendar is quiet in the early part of this week but there are important reports at the end of the week. On Thursday is the Durable Goods report, for which the consensus estimates a 2.0% increase. On Friday is the Preliminary Estimate of 2Q GDP, which the consensus has pegged at 3.2%. That sounds a little high to me based on the economic data table I’ve been compiling.

EconomicData

The Earnings Calendar is as busy as it can get. Some of the names I’ll be watching:

Monday

• Altera (ALTR) – Xilinx (XLNX)  filed an awful report. Can Altera do any better? Consensus is $0.19 EPS on sales of $314 million.
• Hexcel (HXL) – This Small Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member was seeing rising estimates until last month, when they were cut from $0.20 to the current $0.17.
• Steel Dynamics (STLD - Annual Report) – The Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member is expected to earn $1.04 on sales of $948 million.
• Texas Instruments (TXN - Annual Report) – expected to earn $0.42 on $3.45 billion in sales.

Tuesday

• CH Robinson (CHRW - Annual Report) – estimates have been rising and now stand at $0.47, but Landstar (LSTR - Annual Report) disappointed.
• CDW Corporation (CDWC) – stellar monthly sales reports have kept estimates rising. They now stand at $0.97.
• EMC Corporation (EMC - Annual Report) – The big news is still the VMWare IPO, but it is also a decent look at enterprise tech spend.
• Laboratory Corporation of America (LH) – The Mid Cap and Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member has been seeing positive earnings revisions and is now expected to earn $1.09 on $1.03 billion in revenue.
• Lexmark (LXK) preannounced and will probably offer poor guidance.
• Linear Technology (LLTC) – expected to earn $0.35 on $267 million in sales.
• Norsk Hydro (NHY) – The Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member has no analyst coverage right now.
• Plantronics (PLT) – my covered call position is now being cashed out so I’ve no skin in this one. But it is often volatile.
• United Parcel Services (UPS) is a great read on the health of the economy. Expectations are $1.03 on $12.23 billion in revenue.

Wednesday

• Arkansas Best (ABFS) – after Landstar’s (LSTR - Annual Report) weak quarter I’m expecting a poor showing. Estimates have come down to $0.67, but may not have come down enough.
• Colgate Palmolive (CL) – Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member unlikely to surprise much. Consensus is $0.83 on $3.31 billion.
• Corning (GLW - Annual Report) – is LCD supply/demand back in balance?
• Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX - Annual Report) -Another Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member with dramatic positive earnings revisions, now standing at $2.71.
• Graco (GGG) is another Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member. Estimates have been coming down and are now at $0.61.
• MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) – Is polysilicon supply catching up to demand for this Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member?
• Xerox (XRX) – can they make the numbers without asking investors to ignore a bunch of stuff? I don’t doubt they will earn $0.27 as expected but wonder how they’ll get there.

Thursday

• Federated Investors (FII) is on the Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) and expected to earn $0.54.
• Ingram Micro (IM) is on the Small Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) and expected to earn $0.36.
• KLA-Tencor (KLAC) – I know the semiconductor equipment fundamentals stink. I want to know how much and whether it is priced in.
• NII Holdings (NIHD) is on the Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) and expected to earn $0.49.
• Western Digital (WDC) is on the Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) and expected to earn $0.36.

Disclosure: William Trent has a long position in SMH.

Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD - Annual Report) announced that its Board of Directors approved an increase of 5 million shares to its existing share repurchase program.

During June, the company purchased the last of its previously authorized share repurchase program which was last increased in November 2006. Since September 2004, the Company has repurchased 30 million shares of its common stock.

I’m always skeptical of buyback announcements, given that so many companies just use them to soak up the shares they have given to managers as stock options. So I took a look at STLD’s 10K to make sure if there was really share reductions. In 2004 the company had 113 million shares at year-end, and they averaged 106 million in 2006. Adding the 5.6 million shares they have repurchased since, there has been a net reduction of 13 million shares.

Any reduction in share count helps, but there is still a significant difference between the 30 million shares they claim to have bought back and the 13 million actual net reduction in shares. Looking at the Statement of Shareholder Equity, it looks like much of the difference is due to convertible notes being converted into shares. Given that between acquisitions and growth opportunities revenues have increased 50% during the 2-year period, I’m willing to accept that.

Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) and Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD - Annual Report) reiterated its guidance for second quarter earnings in the range of $0.95 to $1.00 per diluted share.

“Shipping volume and pricing of flat-rolled steels thus far in the second quarter have been somewhat weaker than initially expected. Therefore, earnings could end up at the low end of the range due to continued softness in the flat-rolled steel marketplace,” said Keith Busse, Chairman and CEO of Steel Dynamics. “However, while weakness in the flat-rolled steel market has been prolonged due to a slower reduction in steel service center inventories than originally expected, we currently are seeing a slight strengthening and stabilization in pricing. We expect this pricing trend to continue and to improve into the third quarter.”

The earnings figure includes charges related to a debt restructuring, which will reduce EPS by $0.08.  Given the pricing power in overall steel products the issues around flat-rolled steel are disappointing. On the other hand, though, the support from the PPI statistics makes me much more willing to believe management’s third-quarter recovery forecast.

Producer prices rose 0.7 percent in April – Yahoo! News

Elevated energy costs pushed producer prices up a slightly more-than-expected 0.7 percent in April, but excluding volatile food and energy costs, prices paid at the factory gate were unchanged, a Labor Department report released on Friday showed.

As the headline (and core) numbers get widely reported, I like to dig a little deeper into the PPI report to find industries that appear to have more (or less) pricing power than normal. If the pricing power has not yet been recognized widely it can occasionally lead to some good stock picks. (All pricing power charts are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.)
The pricing power in fruit and vegetable canning appears to be helping Del Monte gain some momentum.

Refinery margins hurt Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member Frontier’s (FTO) earnings. Is a turnaround in sight?

One place the pricing power theory definitely didn’t work is in industrial gas. The stocks never weakened, and now pricing power seems to be making a comeback.

Consolidation and pricing power? What’s not to like about Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) and Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member Steel Dynamics’ (STLD - Annual Report) prospects?

Pricing power for industrial valves helped me call the recent earnings pop for Curtiss Wright (CW - Annual Report).

Would you looky what’s happening to semiconductor pricing? Who would have expected that?

Well, that seems like enough for now. Back again next month.

Disclosure: William Trent has a long position in SMH.

Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) and Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member Steel Dynamics (STLD - Annual Report) Reported Strong Sales and Earnings for First Quarter:

Steel Dynamics, Inc. today announced first quarter earnings of $102 million, or $1.01 per diluted share, an increase of 34 percent when compared to $76 million in the first quarter of 2006. Net income per share was relatively unchanged from the fourth quarter. Revenues increased 30 percent to $866 million from $666 million in the first quarter of 2006, largely due to the acquired Roanoke facilities not being included in first quarter 2006 results.

Those results handily beat the consensus estimate of $0.95, which in turn was at the low end of management’s guided range of $0.94-$0.98. For next quarter, the consensus estimate of $1.01 will also be beat on an operating basis:

“Our outlook for the second quarter remains positive,” Busse said. “Our current expectation is for earnings to be in the range of $0.95 to $1.00 per diluted share, after taking into consideration an estimated reduction of $0.08 per diluted share due to the redemption of our $300 million 9 1/2% Senior Unsecured Notes.

We had written about the debt redemption earlier, saying “So let’s see: It now has $500 million of debt-financed capital for which it must pay $33.75 million in annual interest expense, compared to the $300 million it used to have, on which it spent $28.5 million.” We didn’t factor the current charge into the equation, but it does little to change the long-term economics of the deal.

In keeping with its larger stature following the Roanoke acquisition, Steel Dynamics also annouced some management promotions.

The stock traded down a bit after the announcement, but we think investors will ultimately find this report to be highly positive.

Steel Dynamics (STLD - Annual Report), which is a member of our Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) and Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy), is one of the top producers of carbon steel products in the U.S. via its mini-mills. Like many others, Steel Dynamics decided to take advantage of the fairly low interest rates currently available to refinance some of its debt:

Steel Dynamics, Inc. announced today that it has consummated an unsecured note offering of $500 million of 6¾% Senior Notes due 2015 (the “Notes”). The net proceeds from the Notes will be used to redeem the company’s existing $300 million 9½% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2009, to repay amounts outstanding under its senior secured revolving credit facility, to finance certain capital expenditures and for general corporate purposes.

So let’s see: It now has $500 million of debt-financed capital for which it must pay $33.75 million in annual interest expense, compared to the $300 million it used to have, on which it spent $28.5 million. The effective interest rate on the incremental $200 million is a mere 2.6%. Sounds like a good deal to us.

Furthermore, the company is not letting the money sit around. It immediately issued a second announcement:

Steel Dynamics, Inc. today announced it has reached an agreement to purchase two privately owned metals recycling facilities in eastern Tennessee. The facilities are Elizabethton Iron & Metal in Elizabethton, Tennessee, and Johnson City Iron & Metal, in Johnson City, Tennessee. Together, the two scrap yards typically process in excess of 225,000 tons of ferrous scrap per year.

The 225,000 tons adds nearly 5% to Steel Dynamics’ current capacity of 4.7 million tons.

With the end of the first quarter approaching, it is time to adjust the names in our Watch Lists. We will price all the new lists as of the close on Friday, March 30. Today we present our planned updates to the Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy).

Though less than the Small Cap Watch List and Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy), there was still relatively high turnover in this list. 14 of the original 33 names made the cut for the new list (which was trimmed to just 26 names.) Part of the reason for the turnover was to reduce overlap between the lists. One third of the Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) names appear on each of the Small Cap and Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy)s, but there is no longer any overlap between small and large.
So without further ado, the names on the chopping block from the previous list are:

3M (MMM); Continental (CTTAY.PK); Mitsui (MITSY); Anheuser-Busch (BUD); ConocoPhillips (COP); Helix Energy (HELX); IndyMac Bancorp (NDE - Annual Report); Barr Pharmaceutical (BRL - Annual Report); Quest Diagnostics (DGX); Public Storage (PSA); ITT Educational Services (ESI); Equifax (EFX); Rent-a-Center (RCII); Kroger (KR); Ricoh (RICOY); First Data Corp. (FDC); Expeditors International (EXPD); and Keyspan (KSE).

The new list is:

With the end of the first quarter approaching, it is time to adjust the names in our Watch Lists. We will price all the new lists as of the close on Friday, March 30. Today we present our planned updates to the Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy).

As with the Small Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy), we were surprised at the amount of turnover in our screens. Only 7 of the original 29 names made the cut for the new list (which comes in at only 24 names.) Part of the reason for the turnover was to reduce the overlap between the Small Cap and Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy)s. Now there is only one-third overlapping names rather than two thirds. Furthermore, given the level of outperformance we saw in the first quarter (actually just two months) and the fact that much of those gains were achieved early, perhaps the turnover is warranted.

So without further ado, the names on the chopping block from the previous list are:

Silgan Holdings (SLGN - Annual Report); Middleby (MIDD); Olin (OLN); Vector Group (VGR); Sanderson Farms (SAFM); Tesoro (TSO); Downey Financial (DSL); Waddell & Reed (WDR); Gamco (GBL); Apria Healthcare (AHG); Quest Diagnostics (DGX); ITT Educational Services (ESI); Equifax (EFX); Delhaize Group (DEG); Papa John’s (PZZA); Rent-a-Center (RCII); Cato Corp (CTR); Dassault Systemes (DASTY); Ingram Micro (IM); Energy East (EAS); South Jersey Industries (SJI - Annual Report); and American States Water (AWR).

The new list is:

With the end of the first quarter approaching, it is time to adjust the names in our Watch Lists. We will price all the new lists as of the close on Friday, March 30. Today we present our planned updates to the Small Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy).

Frankly, we were surprised at the amount of turnover in our screens. Only 9 of the original 29 names made the cut for the new list (which comes in at only 24 names.) Still, given the level of outperformance we saw in the first quarter (actually just two months) and the fact that much of those gains were achieved early, perhaps the turnover is warranted.

So without further ado, the names on the chopping block from the previous list are:

Silgan Holdings (SLGN - Annual Report); Steel Dynamics (STLD - Annual Report); NVR (NVR - Annual report); Middleby (MIDD); Vector Group (VCG); Sanderson Farms (SAFM); Downey Financial (DSL); Waddell & Reed (WDR); Wilshire Bancorp (WIBC); Harrington West (HWFG); Gamco Investors (GBL); Apria Healthcare (AHG); Papa John’s (PZZA); Cato Corporation (CTR); Meredith Corporation (MDP); CSG Systems (CSGS); Energy East (EAS); Dynamics Research (DRCO); Ingram Micro (IM); and Dade Behring (DADE).

The new watch list will be: