In the article “Top Global Agriculture Picks” which companies did Victor Badin recommend?

In a time of rising food prices, investors should have agricultural stocks in their portfolios, Victor Badin, fund manager at Global Cap, said.

And China Farm Equipment, Bunge and Myriya Agro Holdings are among the most attractive of the bunch, Badin said.

Bunge (BG) gets high marks for earnings momentum and price momentum in the models I follow. However, its free cash flow ranking is low.

In Monday’s Stock Blog post “Four Stocks to Watch This Week,” which of the companies discussed posts earnings today?

Constellation Brands (STZ): Hilsenrath says the alcoholic-beverage maker, which reports its earnings this week, is actually “interesting beyond earnings” — “particularly in light of Anheuser-Busch” and other consolidation stories in the industry.

Constellation gets high marks for earnings quality, but the information available from Zacks Research Wizard was insufficient to calculate several of the other models I like to follow.

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On May 22, 5-star manager Neil Hennessy gave CNBC.com his Web Exclusive stock picks. But which stock did he slam?

Hennessy offered CNBC.com exclusively a list of value stocks that are worth a look, as investors wait for oil to top out:

Tupperware (TUP), Costco (COST), Airgas (ARG), AK Steel (AKS) and Bunge (BG).

So it looks to me like none of the above.

As to Hennesy’s taste, I think it is pretty good. While there are some differences in particular names, he seems to be hitting on some themes that I like.

I wrote bullishly about Tupperware in February, and the stock is up 5.7% since then compared to a 3.6% rise in the S&P 500.

I didn’t like Costco as much as BJ’s (BJ) in April, and BJ’s has risen 10.3% since then, versus a 3.8% rise in the S&P 500.

Rather than Airgas, my specialty chemicals play was Celanese. Since my April 10 article that stock has risen 15.0%, compared to 1.8% for the S&P 500.

In steel I’m relying on Reliance, a pick that has paid off with a 14.5% return since late April, compared to 0.8% for the S&P 500.

That leaves Bunge. As I noted recently Bunge looks good on the basis of earnings momentum and price momentum, but poor on the basis of free cash flow.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

On May 19, Jim Cramer called which agriculture stock a “great buy”?

Seems like a case of “all of the above.”

Regular viewers of Mad Money know Cramer’s been bullish on agriculture stocks. Syngenta (SYT) is one of the few among them not yet at its 52-week high. He called SYG a “great buy,” saying, “Anytime you get a discount…I’d pull the trigger.” That goes for Bunge (BG) and Monsanto (MON) too, he said.

Syngenta is another one of those stocks that just doesn’t make it into my models, so there isn’t much I can say about it. Bunge looks good on the basis of earnings momentum and price momentum, but poor on the basis of free cash flow. Monsanto looks good on earnings and price momentum but poor for both free cash flow and return potential.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

On Monday, April 28, James Altucher of Formula Capital recommended which food-inflation trade to CNBC viewers?

Picks included Sysco (SYY) and Sadia (SDA) while pans included General Mills (GIS), McDonald’s (MCD - Annual Report) and Kellogg (K - Annual Report).

Originally published May 1, rebuilt here due to site issues.

Engineering simulation software provider Ansys (ANSS) reported revenue of $109.5 million in the first quarter of 2008 and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.40. This compared with a consensus estimate of $105 million and $0.33.

Ansys also issued new guidance for the full year. It now expects:

* GAAP revenue in the range of $448 – $452 million
* GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.19 – $1.25
* Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1. 54 – $1.57

The prior consensus estimate called for $453 million in revenue and $1.42 in earnings per share.

One of the reasons I own Ansys is that beating and raising is something of a habit for the company.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent owns shares of Ansys (ANSS).

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

In summary, I think Colgate (CL) looks good relative to its peers on the basis of cash flow, earnings quality and estimate revisions.

Downside from current stock levels seems fairly limited. Colgate’s earnings are expected to reach $3.81 this year and $4.27 next year, assuming that no further positive revisions are in the cards. The lowest trailing P/E ratio over the last five years has been 18 times, so even if valuations sink to those levels, the company could grow into its current share price.

Better yet, if the stock can maintain its current P/E ratio, it could reach $100 in the next 12 to 18 months, for a 28% gain from current levels.

It doesn’t quite amount to one of Cramer’s $80-to-$120 plays, but in today’s market environment, slow and steady may well win the race.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned.

Starbucks launches chocolate line:

Starbucks Coffee Co. (SBUX) has launched a line of chocolates laced with the flavors of its coffees and teas, such as Milk Chocolate Caramel Macchiato Truffles, and milk and dark chocolate infused with Tazo brand teas.The chocolates, which are made by The Hershey Company (HSY), were launched this month at grocers and other retailers nationwide. For now, however, the chocolates are not available at Starbucks coffee shops.

When I wrote about Hershey’s, I said “at this point, even if Hershey’s problems don’t go away, merely not getting worse should be enough to get the shares back on track.”

One of Hershey’s problems has been market share loss to premium chocolates. A difficulty in fighting this is that Hershey’s own brand will not attract premium customers. Enter Starbucks, who has exactly the right kind of brand for the task at hand.

I’ve also said that the problem for Starbucks is in the licensed stores, which are typically located inside other retailers such as Safewa. These stores dilute the brand by failing to provide the “Starbucks experience.” Licensed products, on the other hand, can fit into the premium brand (if done right.)

That said, it seems clear to me that this partnership offers more to Hershey’s, whose $5 billion in annual sales come from chocolate products sold primarily at grocers and other retailers, than to Starbucks, whose $10 billion in annual sales come primarily through coffee products sold in its own coffee shops.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent owns shares of Starbucks (SBUX)

Disclosure: Author is long Starbucks (SBUX) at time of publication.

When I said it was too early to buy NBTY (NTY), unfortunately I didn’t mean a day or two early. The stock was up nicely this morning after an analyst upgrade.

Analyst Upgrades NBTY, Stock Surges: Financial News – Yahoo! Finance

Shares of NBTY Inc. surged Wednesday as an analyst upgraded the nutritional supplement maker, citing its solid sales and an attractive stock price.Edward Aaron of RBC Capital Markets said he is more comfortable with his NBTY estimates now partly because the Bohemia, N.Y.-based company recently reported improved sales. Last month NBTY said its January sales rose 6 percent, as strong wholesale results offset a weak retail environment.

As I said in the original article, though NTY looks fairly cheap so do most retailers and consumer companies. Unless we can get through another quarter without a significant earnings miss or downward revision it just seems too early to call a bottom here.

I still think there is better opportunity in names like Tupperware (TUP) or Coach (COH).

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no position in the companies mentioned.

This article is a reprint of my March 4, 2008 RealMoney column

When I started looking at NBTY (NTY) when it showed up on one of my screens recently, I realized a good chunk of my typical Whole Foods (WFMI - Annual Report) bill was going to their products. NBTY makes vitamins, sport supplements and other products under the brand names Nature’s Bounty, Vitamin World, Puritan’s Pride, Holland & Barrett, Rexall, Osteo-Bi-Flex, Flex-a-min, Knox, Sundown, MET-Rx, WORLDWIDE Sport Nutrition, American Health, DeTuinen, Le Naturiste, SISU, Solgar, and Ester-C.

The health food shops where I pick up my supplements (which are served through NBTY’s wholesale segment) account for nearly half the company’s total sales. The North American Retail segment (457 Vitamin World and 80 Le Naturiste shops) provided 11% of 2007 sales, European Retail (626 stores under a variety of brand names) was 31% of company revenues and the Direct Response/e-commerce segment provided 10%.

These are clearly consumer products, clearly discretionary, and clearly at risk to a consumer slowdown. Given a price of just over ten times earnings and a 10% free cash flow yield, it is also clear investors are aware of this. However, there could still be some downside given that in 2000 valuations troughed at 8.8 times earnings and 0.6 times sales.

For NBTY, the slowdown hit hard in the December 2007 quarter with flat sales and falling margins. That said, the company appears well prepared to weather a slowdown, having cut its debt load from $500 million to $210 million over the last two years. Moody’s recently upgraded its outlook to positive, which is nice for a company with high yield debt in a time of extreme credit market jitters.

The wholesale division has been the company’s strong point, with improving gross margins over the last year. The other half of the business has been poor, requiring store closings in North America. Although European retail performed relatively well in 2007, it was primarily due to currency related issues. In the first quarter, European retail sales declined 4% in local currency.

NBTY is trying to right the retail ship through its store closings and other cost saving moves. The company ended 2007 with 35 fewer stores than it started with. 71 leases are due for renewal in 2008, and the company expects to close 23 more in 2008. NBTY also plans 10 to 12 new store openings this year. In the first quarter, five stores were closed and two opened. These efforts will only be made more difficult if a recession materializes.

I have a few concerns over earnings quality. For example, in each of the last two years the company has reserved less than the actual amount charged for sales returns, bad debt and promotional incentives (an under-reserving trifecta.) However, overall earnings quality measured using the accrual ratio appears strong.

Source: Zacks Research Wizard, compiled by William A. Trent

I’m also nervous about a stock that has had such a big run over the last few weeks. But then again, I had the same concerns about Tupperware (TUP) and it has continued to outperform after rebounding from the same January low. (As a side note, American Oriental Bioengineering (AOB) could represent a catch-up play here.)

The options aren’t generating a particularly good premium right now, so there doesn’t seem much point to a put-write strategy. On the other hand, buying the March $25 puts for $0.15 (as I am writing this) seems like fairly cheap insurance on a long position, given my concerns about the recent run-up.

All in all, though NTY looks fairly cheap so do most retailers and consumer companies. Unless we can get through another quarter without a significant earnings miss or downward revision it just seems too early to call a bottom here.

Disclosures: William Trent has no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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