Archive: Consumer Non-cyclical

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: According to the Stock Blog post, “Stocks That Gain on Hurricanes” which company had “just announced” a share buyback?

According to the Stock Blog post, “Stocks That Gain on Hurricanes” which company had “just announced” a share buyback?

Toro Company (TTC) -– “They have been hit because of the housing industry, but they have been growing huge overseas. They just announced a $4 million share buyback. They have gone up after every single hurricane. Besides, people need landscaping after a hurricane!”

Topics: Toro (TTC), CNBC Trivia, Campbell Soup (CPB), Food Processing, Consumer Non-cyclical | No Comments

CHD: Church & Dwight Pullback Could Be Buying Opportunity

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

Shares of Church & Dwight (CHD) fell sharply last week following a downgrade by BMO Capital Markets analyst Connie Maneaty. I think the lower price could be a buying opportunity in a name that may be a relatively safe haven in the current economic environment.

The company’s brands like Arm&Hammer could do particularly well in a recession, perhaps enticing more budget-conscious consumers. While shoppers may use less OxiClean laundry additive, I don’t see them cutting back on such necessities as Arid antiperspirant, Pepsodent toothpaste, Answer pregnancy tests or Trojan condoms.

Maneaty’s concern also did not appear to be so much about demand, as about costs. “If inflation increases 50% in 2009, we figure Church & Dwight will need offsetting price increases of close to 6 percent, twice the industry average, three times what it should realize this year, and more than it has realized in the past.”

I’m not exactly sure why, if inflation rises 50% in 2009, the industry wouldn’t just implement higher price increases. I mean, if I can get used to $4 gas, I can probably handle paying $0.95 for 16 ounces of baking soda rather than the current $0.89.

Over the last 12 months, Church & Dwight has generated free cash flow (cash flow from operations less capital expenditures) of $237 million — good for a 6.7% free cash flow yield on a current market capitalization of $3.55 billion. I think that yield is reasonable given the company’s expected growth.

If the company maintains a 6.7% free cash flow yield, and free cash flow increases in line with the most pessimistic earnings estimates, the shares could trade at $65 in the next year or so. That would be a 22% increase from the current level. Alternatively, $65 would also be 21 times the lowest estimate of 2009 earnings. Given that Church has traded at an average P/E of 21 times over the last five years, the target also looks reasonable from that perspective.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

Topics: Church & Dwight (CHD), Personal and Household Products, Consumer Non-cyclical | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: In the article “Top Global Agriculture Picks” which companies did Victor Badin recommend?

In the article “Top Global Agriculture Picks” which companies did Victor Badin recommend?

In a time of rising food prices, investors should have agricultural stocks in their portfolios, Victor Badin, fund manager at Global Cap, said.

And China Farm Equipment, Bunge and Myriya Agro Holdings are among the most attractive of the bunch, Badin said.

Bunge (BG) gets high marks for earnings momentum and price momentum in the models I follow. However, its free cash flow ranking is low.

Topics: Bunge (BG), CNBC Trivia, Food Processing | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: Mmm: Food stocks. When Alexia Howard spoke to CNBC on June 24, which one was “at the top of her list”?

Mmm: Food stocks. When Alexia Howard spoke to CNBC on June 24, which one was “at the top of her list”?

At the top of her list is Sara Lee (SLE - Annual Report).

“It’s a combination of very strong price increases that we’ve been seeing in the market data, plus strong productivity improvements,” she said.  “Sara Lee reduced its head count at the corporate center by 300 people at the end of the last quarter.”

Sara Lee gets low marks in the models I follow for both free cash flow and earnings quality.

Topics: Sara Lee (SLE), Food Processing | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: In Monday’s Stock Blog post “Four Stocks to Watch This Week,” which of the companies discussed posts earnings today?

In Monday’s Stock Blog post “Four Stocks to Watch This Week,” which of the companies discussed posts earnings today?

Constellation Brands (STZ): Hilsenrath says the alcoholic-beverage maker, which reports its earnings this week, is actually “interesting beyond earnings” — “particularly in light of Anheuser-Busch” and other consolidation stories in the industry.

Constellation gets high marks for earnings quality, but the information available from Zacks Research Wizard was insufficient to calculate several of the other models I like to follow.

Zacks Investment Research has provided Stock Market Beat with a complimentary trial subscription to Research Wizard.

Topics: Constellation Brands (STZ), CNBC Trivia | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: The slideshow, “Which Costs More?” (June 10) says Budweiser is pricier than crude oil. How much IS a barrel of beer?

The slideshow, “Which Costs More?” (June 10) says Budweiser is pricier than crude oil. How much IS a barrel of beer?

$447.25

As for me, I’m taking the money and running when it comes to Anheuser-Busch (BUD).

Topics: Beverages (Alcoholic), CNBC Trivia, Anheuser Busch (BUD), Consumer Non-cyclical | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: Warren Buffett Watch: According to Adolphus Busch IV, how big a stake does Berkshire Hathaway’s CEO hold in Anheuser?

Warren Buffett Watch: According to Adolphus Busch IV, how big a stake does Berkshire Hathaway’s CEO hold in Anheuser?

“Mr. Buffett, who holds a 5% stake in Anheuser-Busch has a notable reputation for assisting in matters where family ownership is at stake,” Adolphus Busch IV, August Busch IV’s uncle, said in a statement.

As for me, I’m taking the money and running when it comes to Anheuser-Busch (BUD).

Topics: Beverages (Alcoholic), Insurance (Property and Casualty), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), CNBC Trivia, Consumer Non-cyclical, Anheuser Busch (BUD), Financials | No Comments

BUD: Speaking of Taking the Money and Running…

I’d do the same with Anheuser-Busch (BUD). Due to the InBev offer BUD is up 14.3% since my January 10 article, compared to a 4.2% decline in the S&P 500.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

Topics: Beverages (Alcoholic), Anheuser Busch (BUD), Consumer Non-cyclical | 1 Comment

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: On May 22, 5-star manager Neil Hennessy gave CNBC.com his Web Exclusive stock picks. But which stock did he slam?

On May 22, 5-star manager Neil Hennessy gave CNBC.com his Web Exclusive stock picks. But which stock did he slam?

Hennessy offered CNBC.com exclusively a list of value stocks that are worth a look, as investors wait for oil to top out:

Tupperware (TUP), Costco (COST), Airgas (ARG), AK Steel (AKS) and Bunge (BG).

So it looks to me like none of the above.

As to Hennesy’s taste, I think it is pretty good. While there are some differences in particular names, he seems to be hitting on some themes that I like.

I wrote bullishly about Tupperware in February, and the stock is up 5.7% since then compared to a 3.6% rise in the S&P 500.

I didn’t like Costco as much as BJ’s (BJ) in April, and BJ’s has risen 10.3% since then, versus a 3.8% rise in the S&P 500.

Rather than Airgas, my specialty chemicals play was Celanese. Since my April 10 article that stock has risen 15.0%, compared to 1.8% for the S&P 500.

In steel I’m relying on Reliance, a pick that has paid off with a 14.5% return since late April, compared to 0.8% for the S&P 500.

That leaves Bunge. As I noted recently Bunge looks good on the basis of earnings momentum and price momentum, but poor on the basis of free cash flow.

 

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

Topics: Reliance Steel (RS), Bunge (BG), Tupperware (TUP), CNBC Trivia, Costco Wholesale (COST), BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Stock Market | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: On May 19, Jim Cramer called which agriculture stock a “great buy”?

On May 19, Jim Cramer called which agriculture stock a “great buy”?

Seems like a case of “all of the above.”

Regular viewers of Mad Money know Cramer’s been bullish on agriculture stocks. Syngenta (SYT) is one of the few among them not yet at its 52-week high. He called SYG a “great buy,” saying, “Anytime you get a discount…I’d pull the trigger.” That goes for Bunge (BG) and Monsanto (MON) too, he said.

Syngenta is another one of those stocks that just doesn’t make it into my models, so there isn’t much I can say about it. Bunge looks good on the basis of earnings momentum and price momentum, but poor on the basis of free cash flow. Monsanto looks good on earnings and price momentum but poor for both free cash flow and return potential.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

Topics: Monsanto (MON), Bunge (BG), Syngenta (SYT), CNBC Trivia | No Comments