According to the Stock Blog post, “Stocks That Gain on Hurricanes” which company had “just announced” a share buyback?

Toro Company (TTC) -– “They have been hit because of the housing industry, but they have been growing huge overseas. They just announced a $4 million share buyback. They have gone up after every single hurricane. Besides, people need landscaping after a hurricane!”

In the article “Top Global Agriculture Picks” which companies did Victor Badin recommend?

In a time of rising food prices, investors should have agricultural stocks in their portfolios, Victor Badin, fund manager at Global Cap, said.

And China Farm Equipment, Bunge and Myriya Agro Holdings are among the most attractive of the bunch, Badin said.

Bunge (BG) gets high marks for earnings momentum and price momentum in the models I follow. However, its free cash flow ranking is low.

Mmm: Food stocks. When Alexia Howard spoke to CNBC on June 24, which one was “at the top of her list”?

At the top of her list is Sara Lee (SLE - Annual Report).

“It’s a combination of very strong price increases that we’ve been seeing in the market data, plus strong productivity improvements,” she said.  “Sara Lee reduced its head count at the corporate center by 300 people at the end of the last quarter.”

Sara Lee gets low marks in the models I follow for both free cash flow and earnings quality.

On May 22, 5-star manager Neil Hennessy gave CNBC.com his Web Exclusive stock picks. But which stock did he slam?

Hennessy offered CNBC.com exclusively a list of value stocks that are worth a look, as investors wait for oil to top out:

Tupperware (TUP), Costco (COST), Airgas (ARG), AK Steel (AKS) and Bunge (BG).

So it looks to me like none of the above.

As to Hennesy’s taste, I think it is pretty good. While there are some differences in particular names, he seems to be hitting on some themes that I like.

I wrote bullishly about Tupperware in February, and the stock is up 5.7% since then compared to a 3.6% rise in the S&P 500.

I didn’t like Costco as much as BJ’s (BJ) in April, and BJ’s has risen 10.3% since then, versus a 3.8% rise in the S&P 500.

Rather than Airgas, my specialty chemicals play was Celanese. Since my April 10 article that stock has risen 15.0%, compared to 1.8% for the S&P 500.

In steel I’m relying on Reliance, a pick that has paid off with a 14.5% return since late April, compared to 0.8% for the S&P 500.

That leaves Bunge. As I noted recently Bunge looks good on the basis of earnings momentum and price momentum, but poor on the basis of free cash flow.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

On May 19, Jim Cramer called which agriculture stock a “great buy”?

Seems like a case of “all of the above.”

Regular viewers of Mad Money know Cramer’s been bullish on agriculture stocks. Syngenta (SYT) is one of the few among them not yet at its 52-week high. He called SYG a “great buy,” saying, “Anytime you get a discount…I’d pull the trigger.” That goes for Bunge (BG) and Monsanto (MON) too, he said.

Syngenta is another one of those stocks that just doesn’t make it into my models, so there isn’t much I can say about it. Bunge looks good on the basis of earnings momentum and price momentum, but poor on the basis of free cash flow. Monsanto looks good on earnings and price momentum but poor for both free cash flow and return potential.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

According to a release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, core producer prices increased by 0.4% in April and 3% over the last 12 months. The monthly gain was twice the rate that had been forecast, and the 12-month change was the largest gain since December 1991.

I’ll leave reading the economic tea leaves to those who are better at it. For a stock picker like me, government economic reports can do more than just indicate the state of the economy. Instead, I like to examine the industry-level data to see if there are specific industries to consider more closely as investment opportunities. As usual, this month’s PPI report did not disappoint.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no position in the securities mentioned in this article.

On Monday, April 28, James Altucher of Formula Capital recommended which food-inflation trade to CNBC viewers?

Picks included Sysco (SYY) and Sadia (SDA) while pans included General Mills (GIS), McDonald’s (MCD - Annual Report) and Kellogg (K - Annual Report).

Starbucks launches chocolate line:

Starbucks Coffee Co. (SBUX) has launched a line of chocolates laced with the flavors of its coffees and teas, such as Milk Chocolate Caramel Macchiato Truffles, and milk and dark chocolate infused with Tazo brand teas.The chocolates, which are made by The Hershey Company (HSY), were launched this month at grocers and other retailers nationwide. For now, however, the chocolates are not available at Starbucks coffee shops.

When I wrote about Hershey’s, I said “at this point, even if Hershey’s problems don’t go away, merely not getting worse should be enough to get the shares back on track.”

One of Hershey’s problems has been market share loss to premium chocolates. A difficulty in fighting this is that Hershey’s own brand will not attract premium customers. Enter Starbucks, who has exactly the right kind of brand for the task at hand.

I’ve also said that the problem for Starbucks is in the licensed stores, which are typically located inside other retailers such as Safewa. These stores dilute the brand by failing to provide the “Starbucks experience.” Licensed products, on the other hand, can fit into the premium brand (if done right.)

That said, it seems clear to me that this partnership offers more to Hershey’s, whose $5 billion in annual sales come from chocolate products sold primarily at grocers and other retailers, than to Starbucks, whose $10 billion in annual sales come primarily through coffee products sold in its own coffee shops.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent owns shares of Starbucks (SBUX)

Disclosure: Author is long Starbucks (SBUX) at time of publication.

photo credit: Zesmerelda

This article is a reprint of my February 25, 2008 RealMoney column

What is wrong with Dean Foods (DF)? After all with everyone from Starbucks (SBUX) to Hershey’s (HSY) getting hurt by rising milk costs, I would expect the “largest processor and distributor of milk and various other dairy products in the United States” to be living in the land of milk and honey.

Yet somehow, Dean has managed to get itself on the wrong side of every dairy-related position (so much for Peter Lynch’s invest in what you know theory.) For example, the company describes the current dairy environment in its latest 10Q: “As a consequence of higher raw milk costs, we have seen a related increase in shrink costs and reduced profits from excess cream sales. At the same time, sales volumes in the Dairy Group have softened as consumers react to the higher retail prices. We are also seeing a shift from our branded fluid milk products to private label products resulting in reduced gross profit. In our White Wave segment, results continue to be negatively impacted by the oversupply of organic milk.”

High commodity costs during a period of oversupply? It is as if the law of supply and demand has been overturned. And Dean doesn’t expect to see much improvement. “As we look beyond the first quarter, we find it difficult to have much confidence in current dairy commodity forecasts given these unprecedented levels of dairy commodity market instability,” management warned.

As a result of this lack of confidence, the consensus earnings estimate for 2008 has dropped from $1.45 to $1.33 over the last month. The Zacks rank, a measure of earnings momentum, has fallen two points to the worst level of five. That rank puts Dean among the worst 5% of companies followed on the basis of earnings momentum. Yet still the estimates are well above management’s own guidance for “at least $1.20 per share.”

If there is a bright side to Dean’s horrible earnings outlook, it is that the quality of earnings remains relatively sound. The accrual ratio, which represents the difference between cash earnings and accounting earnings, should ideally hover around zero. That is more or less what Dean’s has done.

Source: Zacks Research Wizard, compiled by William Trent

So, with the earnings quality indicating that the lousy earnings are at least trustworthy, I have to ask whether the current “50% off” share price reflects all the bad news. Unfortunately, no matter how I look at it it’s hard for me to think that it does.

The P/E of 20x management’s guidance is above the company’s five-year average of 17.5x. And even being willing to look way ahead, assuming the current consensus estimate of $1.76 for 2009 doesn’t get cut and that investors are willing to pay the average multiple for them, the target price would be about $30. The potential 25% gain over 1-2 years curdles when it has to be based on so many assumptions.

The consensus five-year growth rate of 11.5% also seems incredibly optimistic, given that the same analysts are expecting a 5% sales increase this year to be followed by a modest decline next year. And even assuming the 11.5% growth occurs due to margin expansion, I’d expect much of it to be eroded by a contracting valuation given Dean’s outlandish 63x price/book ratio. Considering that total return is a function of growth and the change in valuation, I think the two would offset each other in this case, perhaps resulting in annual total return in the mid single digits.

Finally, my favorite measure is the free cash flow yield, and Dean looks far from attractive on this basis. On either a free cash flow to equity or a free cash flow to enterprise basis, the yield comes to about 4%. True, it is better than the current yield on 5-year Treasuries. But given the risks involved, I think there are many more attractive opportunities.

In fact, either of the other two victims of milk pricing look far better to me. Starbucks could have a 6% free cash flow yield based on its plans to slow expansion (and related expenditures) while Hershey’s is already at a 6.7% free cash flow yield.

Long story short, I think Dean’s chairman is on the right track by selling shares.

Disclosures: William Trent owns shares of Starbucks (SBUX)

Zacks Investment Research has provided Stock Market Beat with a complimentary trial subscription to Research Wizard.

Hansen Natural (HANS) is giving back the last month’s gains today after reporting higher than expected sales and lower than expected margins. Both were explained by customers stocking up ahead of a price increase. Count on the same thing happening to Hershey’s (HSY) when they report a March quarter enhanced by customer stock-ups and an early Easter.

While it’s true that the sales were boosted by robbing sales from next quarter, that is a short term issue. I said last month that “Hansen should be able to maintain its current free cash flow yield as long as the company keeps growing, which suggests potential upside in line with the 30% growth rate this year. Unless the growth rate slows substantially, it looks like a keeper.”

That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it.

Disclosure: William Trent has no position in the companies mentioned.