The following is a reprint of my January 14, 2008 RealMoney column.

Unilever (UN) is one of the leading providers of consumer staples worldwide. Some of its brands include Lipton, Breyers, Hellmann’s, and Slim-Fast in foods, and Dove, Close-up, Snuggle and Surf in household and personal products. In other words, the type of products that should be relatively immune if consumer spending turns down.

Unilever’s corporate structure can be difficult for many investors to understand. Since 1930, the company has been run by two controlling companies – Unilever NV and Unilever PLC (UL). Unilever NV and PLC have separate legal identities but operate as a single entity. The company provides the following graphical aid on its web site:

After a few minutes trying to figure this out, many investors are probably thinking they should look at Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Procter & Gamble (PG) or Heinz (HNZ) instead. I think it’s worth the time spent to get to know Unilever, though, because it looks like a better value in many ways. Consider the following table:

Unilever offers the lowest P/E ratio, growth in line with the average and an above-average free cash flow yield. (I define free cash flow as the cash generated from operating activities over the last 12 months minus capital expenditures over the same period. Free cash flow yield is free cash flow divided by enterprise value.) Free cash flow yield is my preferred measure because I think it levels the playing field between the ways companies can generate return such as dividends, share buybacks, acquisitions or internal growth.

P&G also looks good in this comparison, with higher growth and a higher free cash flow yield than Unilever. But a couple of other factors lead me to (slightly) favor Unilever.

First, Unilever shares shed 9% of their value last week, bringing them to much more attractive levels after they reported earnings and a Morgan Stanley analyst expressed concern over raw materials prices. But Procter faces the same issues, and the stock did not come in nearly as much. As a result, I think the concern is more “priced in” at Unilever.

Second, in recent weeks Unilever’s earnings estimates for 2007 and 2008 have been marching up steadily. The 2008 estimates were $2.10 two months ago, but now stand at $2.21. As a result, the Zacks Rank measure of earnings momentum puts Unilever in the top 20% of all companies. Procter’s estimates haven’t budged from $3.92 in that time.

It’s true that the raw materials concerns could start to rein in estimates. Again, however, this should apply to both companies.

With a 4% free cash flow yield, Unilever compares favorably to the current 3.15% yield of 5-year Treasuries. Adding in the 10.4% growth rate estimated over the next five years produces a potential total return of more than 14% per year. Alternatively, if Unilever’s P/E could rise to the industry average over the next year it could generate a 16% return for that period.

In today’s uncertain economic environment, I’d be willing to accept quite a bit less than that.

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This article was originally published at RealMoney on October 15, 2007.

Last month I showed how investors can generate investment ideas by using the Producer Price Index (PPI) report prepared monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The idea is that industries where prices are rising may contain companies where revenue will grow faster and/or margins will improve.

Of course, like any initial screen the PPI report is only a starting place. It is useful to generate ideas, but further research is needed to determine whether they are good ideas. This month, I do some of that further research.

The first industry I mentioned last month was fruit and vegetable canning. Year/year price increases for the industry have been well above average, and although they have come down a bit from a peak earlier this year the trend still appears to be upward and last month inflation ticked up to 5.5% from 5.3% in August.

Year/Year Price Increases for Fruit and Vegetable Canning Industry

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

As I noted last month, possible plays on this industry include packaging companies (can makers) such as Ball Corp. (BLL), Crown Holdings CCK - Annual Report) or Silgan (SLGN - Annual Report). Or you can go to the food processors such as Campbell Soup (CPB), Del Monte (DLM - Annual Report), Hain Celestial (HAIN) or H.J. Heinz (HNZ).

Let’s start with Ball. When Ball released second-quarter results, they said they would be increasing capital spending “related in part to 2008 capacity additions for Europe, where we are essentially sold out this year and next.” President and CEO R. David Hoover called the first six months of 2007 the best half-year in Ball Corporation’s 127-year history in terms of sales and earnings. The strong first half supports the initial PPI reading, and the continued strength in pricing power suggests more good news to come.

However, Crown Holdings noted in its earnings report that raw materials prices were also rising. Passing through cost increases benefits sales growth, but may not help profit margins. Crown may be more exposed than others in the industry, suggesting greater caution on the name and an eye on raw material costs if any investments are made.

Silgan also commented on raw material costs, but reports that the pass-through works on a lag. “Operating margin increased to 7.6 percent from 5.4 percent [due in part to] the lagged contractual pass through beginning in the latter part of 2006 of significant inflation in other manufacturing costs.” Silgan looks like a good bet, as the lag effect will mitigate the impact of future cost increases and also help margins even more the next time raw materials prices head south.                                                                    

Moving to the food processors, Campbell’s Soup said “Gross margin increased to 41.9 percent from 41.8 percent… primarily due to productivity gains and higher selling prices, partially offset by cost inflation.” Rising prices also contributed 2% of the 7% total sales growth for the year. With the stock not yet reflecting these results, investors may want to take a good look.

For Del Monte, however, the rising prices are hurting more than they are helping. “The Company now expects fiscal 2008 diluted EPS from continuing operations to be at the low end of its previous guidance of $0.70 to $0.74” due primarily to cost increases in excess of what it can pass through. Given the better apparent prospects from other names that passed the screen, it is hard to argue in favor of Del Monte.

No so for Hain, which reported “gross margin of 27.9% in the fourth quarter, compared to 26.5% in the prior year fourth quarter. Margin improvements achieved through productivity gains and price increases were offset by the challenges at Celestial Seasonings.” Hain has had a good year, though, suggesting that investors may have already picked up on the positive news.

Finally, Heinz increased its sales and earnings guidance, saying on the conference call that “We are seeing positive net pricing and productivity offset these cost headwinds.”

In conclusion, on further review the initial positive read from the PPI report seems to be confirmed in five out of seven cases. In a few of the cases (Ball, Silgan and Hain) the stock price has followed the pricing trends, which bode well for continued strong performance. For Campbell’s and Heinz, the stocks have been stuck in neutral and (pardon the pun) may be ready for one of Cramer’s “ketchup” plays.

Originally published at RealMoney on September 19, 2007.

Tony Crescenzi says the latest PPI report should be tossed because the benign headline reading will almost certainly be reversed in the months ahead owing to the surge in energy costs that has occurred of late. I say not so fast! If prices are rising, that means some companies out there are likely to see better profits. Before tossing out the report, I’m betting we can figure out who a few of them will be.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which prepares the PPI report, provides detailed information on an industry basis. The problem is figuring out how to find it on their web site. Starting at the PPI home page, I scroll down to the headline that says “Get Detailed PPI Statistics” then click on Industry Data. You can then pick out which industries you want to see (I pick ‘em all) and click “Retrieve Data.” Then I select “More Formatting Options” and click on the boxes for 12-month percent change, all years, and include graphs. Once I hit “retrieve data” again I have what I’m looking for - graphs that make it easy to tell which industries are gaining or losing their pricing power.

First up is the fruit and vegetable canning industry. At 5.3% year/year inflation, pricing is clearly better than normal. It is down from a recent peak but still looks to be generally in a rising trend.

Possible plays on this industry include can makers such as Ball Corp. (BLL), Crown Holdings CCK - Annual Report), or Silgan (SLGN - Annual Report). Or you can go to the food processors such as Campbell Soup (CPB), Del Monte (DLM - Annual Report), Hain Celestial (HAIN), or HJ Heinz (HNZ).

Looking better still are industrial valves, up 9.3% year/year against tough comparisons.

Some of the industrial valve makers include Flowserve (FLS), Crane (CR) and Curtiss Wright (CW - Annual Report).

But enough with boring “old” industries. How about tech? It is seldom that tech prices actually increase, but sometimes they decline at a slower than usual pace, which can provide a similar opportunity. That may be the case right now with computer storage devices.

Last month’s 2.9% decline from last year was the smallest price drop on record for this industry, and the ongoing consolidation may help the trend continue. Plenty of ways to play this one, including Brocade (BRCD), EMC (EMC - Annual Report), Iomega (IOM), Hutchinson (HTCH), Quantum (QTM), Sandisk (SNDK - Annual Report), Seagate (STX - Annual Report), and Western Digital (WDC).

By contrast, semiconductors are experiencing the worst pricing on record.

That could be the signal for a contrarian play (I happen to think the worst will soon be over for semiconductors) or possibly just an excuse to avoid the group for a while.

The PPI clued me in to the opportunity in railroads a year before Buffett bought in. I hestitate to bet against him, but it looks like the industry’s price increases have ground to a halt.

If you have the guts, I’d count this as bad news for Burlington Northern (BNI), CSX Corp. (CSX), Norfolk Southern (NSC), and Union Pacific (UNP).

Finally, Wired Telecommunications saw pricing decline for years after the 1996 Telecom Act, but recent consolidation is allowing them to raise prices again.

Winners here would be CenturyTel (CTL), AT&T (T - Annual Report), Verizon (VZ - Annual Report) and Embarq (EQ).

By my count, that is 26 potential stock tips, all courtesy of the U.S. government. I’ll take that over tossing the report any day.

Disclosure: Long Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH).