Archive: Estee Lauder (EL)

Discretionary Spending Hanging On Under Pressure

With the consumer high on everyone’s mind, I thought it a good time to take a look at some companies exposed to discretionary spending to see what they are saying.

Estee Lauder’s (EL) three percent growth in North America was in line with the total retail sales growth recently reported. A big question is whether they are in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Although our most rapid growth will come from overseas, we are taking action to improve in the largest individual market, the U.S. However, we expect progress to be slow because of continued softness in department stores. We anticipate that the tough retail climate in department stores will last for at least the first half of your fiscal year. However, we remain committed to the channel. Department stores have unique offerings of designers and brands, and we firmly believe they will remain the cornerstone of U.S. prestige distribution.

That said, we also note that we now generate approximately 34% of our net sales in North American prestige department stores down from 46% five years ago.

(Excerpt from full EL conference call transcript)

Starbucks (SBUX) grew significantly faster than the average retailer, but not nearly so fast as its investors have come to expect.

Company-operated U.S. retail revenue growth of 19% was driven by the opening of 1,116 new company-operated stores in the last 12 months. During the third quarter specifically, we opened 285 new company-operated locations.

Turning to comparable store sales growth for the U.S. segment, the third quarter saw trends similar to those in the second quarter. The average value per transaction increased 3% while traffic grew less than 1%, resulting in a 4% comparable store sales growth. During the quarter, sales of our core handcrafted espresso-based beverages and premium food offerings were the primary drivers of the growth in same-store sales.

(Excerpt from full SBUX conference call transcript)

The 3% per-transaction growth, again, was just average for US retail. What is still somewhat impressive is growing store traffic at all (even just 1%) while opening new stores at the rate of 3 or 4 per day. Still, they are noticing some shifts in their customer’s habits.

It’s clear that there is an increased competitive environment. There is an increased pressure on consumers from macroeconomic factors. But in all of those areas, we believe that we have a competitive advantage of being the coffee experts and being able to generate incremental traffic as we go forward, particularly in our core beverages, our core espresso beverages and the things that are uniquely Starbucks.

(Excerpt from full SBUX conference call transcript)

The credit crunch is hitting Nordstrom (JWN).

Approximately $14 million of the bad debt reserve is non-comparable due to the previous mentioned accounting treatment for our co-branded Visa receivables that did not occur in the prior year. The remaining $8 million of the incremental provision resulted from growth in both the Visa and proprietary card receivables ahead of plan and from changes to assumed repayment rates versus last year.

These changes stem from observed increases in early stage delinquencies.

(Excerpt from full JWN conference call transcript)

However, the company expects to gain market share.

Our same-store sales expectation is now 5% to 6% for the year, up from 3% to 4% based on our year-to-date performance combined with our plans for the remaining two quarters of the year.

(Excerpt from full JWN conference call transcript)

I think the general consensus is that consumers are feeling some pressure but not enough to really keep them from spending. These conference calls seem to confirm that consensus opinion.

Disclosure: Author is long Starbucks (SBUX) at time of publication.

Topics: Retail (Department and Discount), Nordstrom (JWN), Personal and Household Products, Estee Lauder (EL), Starbucks (SBUX), Restaurants | 1 Comment

U.S. Investors Say Get Us Out of Here!

Stock market uber-blogger Charles Kirk said yesterday that despite the current rally, the U.S. market is looking Like A Bad Stock:

The U.S. market continues to act like a bad stock in a really great sector of the market. In other words, with the global boom worldwide and the gains seen across the globe, the U.S. market is moving higher along with everything else whether deserved or not. That’s also why we continue to see a huge migration toward companies that have international exposure. The more global the better and there’s good reason for that.

I thought the analogy resonated, and decided to dig a little for evidence in support of the idea. For this task I turned to some recent conference call transcripts of companies with global operations.

At least twice the growth overseas as in America for Autodesk (ADSK):

Revenue in America was $184 million, an increase of 8%. Revenue in the America was somewhat impacted by changes in backlog between years as well as the particularly tough compare in the first quarter of last year, which grew 39%.

EMEA revenues were $207 million, an increase of 26% as reported and 14% cost of currency. Asia Pacific increased 16% to $117 million. Revenues in Japan decreased slightly compared to last year, but increased significantly on a sequential basis consistent with historical trends.

(Excerpt from full ADSK conference call transcript)

Hewlett Packard (HPQ - Annual Report) also saw stronger growth overseas, but currency played a big role for them.

On a regional basis, revenue was up 11% in the Americas, up 14% in EMEA and up 16% in Asia Pacific. When adjusted for the effects of currency, revenue was up 11% in the Americas, 7% in EMEA and 13% in Asia Pacific.

(Excerpt from full HPQ conference call transcript)

BEA Systems (BEAS) is also seeing strength overseas:

As I mentioned, we saw a tough selling environment in the Americas. Our close rate in the first two months of the quarter was actually on track with plan, and then we were surprised when close rates weakened at the end of the quarter. Some large deals slipped out of the quarter. The slippage was generally due to poor execution on our part. A few of those deals have already closed in Q2.

Geographically, the Asia-Pacific region performed very well. We continue to see great performance out of China, Korea, and Asia. In Q1, China contributed more license revenue than any territory outside the United States, and we see no end to demand there. EMEA performed fairly well overall. We performed well in Italy, Northern EMEA and other places.

We’re seeing improvement in the U.K., and our new team there is trying to drive better results and better pipeline.

(Excerpt from full BEAS conference call transcript)

Finally, lest you think the issue may be confined to tech, Estee Lauder (EL) chimes in:

Geographically, our international business again led our growth this quarter. In Europe, the Middle East and Africa, despite coming off high single digit local currency growth last year, we grew net sales a solid 13% for the quarter. A few key businesses drove this performance, including travel retail and our largest market in the region, the United Kingdom, which posted healthy double-digit increases. Russia, one of our emerging markets, reported another outstanding quarter.

All countries in Asia-Pacific posted local currency sales increases, with the exception of Thailand. The increases generally reflect a strong economy in the region. Japan, our largest affiliate in the region, was up mid single digits in the quarter. New points of distribution in the region also added to sales growth.

In the Americas, net sales decreased.

(Excerpt from full EL conference call transcript.)

So all are in agreement: sales are better overseas. No wonder, then, that overseas markets have been stronger.

Disclosure: Author is long IShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ) at time of publication.

Topics: Estee Lauder (EL), Autodesk (ADSK), BEA Systems (BEAS), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Stock Market | No Comments