Economic Indicators.gov

According to the Census Bureau ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $377.6 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month and 3.7 percent (±0.8%) above August 2006. Total sales for the June through August 2007 period were up 3.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2007 percent change was revised from 0.3 percent (± 0.7%)* to 0.5 percent (± 0.2%).

The 3.7% year/year gain is an improvement from 3.2% in July. Still, looking at the longer-term trend it is too early to call an improvement. Furthermore, with CPI running 2.4% year/year the real retail growth is still pretty light.

I’m sticking to my previous characterization: Good but deteriorating.

EconomicData

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES: Latest Release

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $376.1 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month and 3.2 percent (±0.8%) above July 2006. Total sales for the May through July 2007 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago.

Econoday summed it up nicely with the following chart.

Looking at the year/year growth it is clearly slowing over the last couple of years and below the recent “normal” range. But 3.2% is still at least acceptable (though not too much above inflation so real growth is slow.) Furthermore, the year-to-date trend is setting higher highs and higher lows, so things may be on an uptrend.

I am going to stick with my classification as “good but deteriorating.”

EconomicData