Archive: Energy

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: In the video feature, Best Trades Now: Healthcare, Energy & More, what does Edward Perks call “a tremendous performer”?

In the video feature, Best Trades Now: Healthcare, Energy & More, what does Edward Perks call “a tremendous performer”?

Canadian Oil Sands (COSWF) has been a tremendous performer, really driven by the oil-price performance the last several years.  Others, like Pfizer (PFE - Annual Report), have been a little bit tougher, a little bit more of a long-term value play, with the creation of new drugs there over time.”

- Edward Perks, Franklin Income Fund

Topics: Canadian Oil Sands (COSWF), Pfizer (PFE) | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: According to the CNBC.com special report, Powering the Planet, which is the “biggest” U.S. geothermal player?

According to the CNBC.com special report, Powering the Planet, which is the “biggest” U.S. geothermal player?

The biggest US players are firms in which geothermal is only a portion of their business. This includes Chevron (CVX) b

CHEVRON CORP

CVX


87.36  -2.06  -2.3% 

NYSE

ut also Calpine (CPN) and Raser Technologies (RZ).

In other words, “all of the above.”

Topics: Calpine (CPN), Chevron (CVX), Razer Technologies (RZ) | No Comments

ConocoPhillips: Good COP, Better COP

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

With oil dictating everything in this market, I can’t understand why ConocoPhillips (COP) is trading at 7 times next year’s earnings.

It’s not like the earnings estimates are falling. 90 days ago, analysts expected the company to earn $10.43 a share this year and $10.59 next year. Today, the estimates are $12.41 and $13.44, respectively. The consensus five-year growth rate is just 1%, which would mean a drop back to $7.65 a share within five years. I just don’t see that happening, so there should be potential upside surprise to the growth estimates as well.

It’s not the earnings quality, either — at least not as measured by the accrual ratio. That ratio shows that Conoco’s accounting-based earnings are within 3% of its cash-based earnings. At BP (BP - Annual Report) , the difference is 99%. Suncor Energy (SU - Annual Report) has a 50% accrual ratio. For Petrobras (PBR) , it’s a whopping 122%. I’ll take Conoco’s tight relationship between earnings and cash flow any day.

Speaking of cash flow, Conoco has just loads of it. Over the last 12 months, the company’s free cash flow (cash flow from operating activities less capital expenditures) was $12 billion. Cash from operations has been growing steadily, suggesting that the free cash flow may improve further. With Conoco’s $145 billion market capitalization, that amounts to a free cash flow yield of 8.3%. The 500-basis-point premium over Treasuries is a pretty attractive risk premium, even if the cash flow doesn’t grow. Among the integrated oil names, only Total Fina (TOT) has a higher free cash flow yield.

ExxonMobil (XOM - Annual Report) looks pretty good — its free-cash-flow yield is nearly as high as Conoco’s, and its earnings quality is equally robust. Its earnings estimates are rising as well, though not by as much as Conoco’s. Yet even though it’s got less earnings momentum, it is trading at a higher P/E of 9 times next year’s estimate.

I think Conoco’s growth rate will be more like 4% or 5% annually over the next five years, and that its price-to-book could expand to at least 2.0 times over the same time frame. By my calculations, that scenario would result in an average annual total return of 17% to 20% a year.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

Topics: BP (BP), Petrobras (PBR), Suncor Energy (SU) | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: In “Stocks Could Be Hostage To Oil Prices All Summer” which defensive play did Richard Sparks recommend?

In “Stocks Could Be Hostage To Oil Prices All Summer” which defensive play did Richard Sparks recommend?

Sparks recommends two small-cap exploration firms: PetroQuest (PQ) and Goodrich Petroleum (GDP).

Topics: Goodrich Petroleum (GDP), PetroQuest (PQ) | No Comments

How to Play a Market That Isn’t Going Your Way

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

I usually want a stock to score highly in four out of five categories before giving it much consideration: earnings momentum, earnings quality, price momentum, free cash flow and return potential.

This week, only three stocks went four for five, and I’ve talked about them all before: W&T Offshore (WTI) , Pitney Bowes (PBI) and Rent-a-Center (RCII) . As I look for new investment ideas, I’m left with three options, each of which has significant drawbacks.

  1. Go short
  2. Change strategy
  3. Stay on the sidelines

I seldom short stocks, but I’ll probably try to scratch out some extra gains by writing covered calls on stocks like Ansys (ANSS) that I like long-term, but that look a little stretched in the near term. I also will likely leave a little cash standing by to put to work when conditions are more favorable. But like many investors, I generally plan to stay long and close to fully invested. In markets like this one, that means shifting gears a little bit.

Without straying too far from my comfort zone, I’m considering letting my winners ride (and possibly paying up for those like WTI that meet my criteria but have seen strong rallies), searching for deep value plays, and possibly even making a speculative play or two.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, William Trent has a covered call position in Ansys (ANSS) and has written put options against the shares of NutriSystem (NTRI).

Topics: ADC Telecom (ADCT), Pitney Bowes (PBI), W&T Offshore (WTI) | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: In “Riding the Energy Stock Elevator” why did Jerry Castellini say he likes Southwestern Energy?

In “Riding the Energy Stock Elevator” why did Jerry Castellini say he likes Southwestern Energy?

Castellini is especially enthusiastic about energy exploration companies, and Southwestern Energy (SWN - Annual Report)  tops his list.

“Southwestern Energy…controls the Fayetteville shale development in Arkansas, which is one of the nascent but rapidly-growing basins for natural gas production,” he explained.  “Southwestern dominates this play today; they’re ramping rigs, and we think they’ll probably grow production 35 to 40 percent a year.  That sounds like a growth stock to me.”

 It doesn’t make it into my models, so I have nothing to add.

Topics: Southwestern Energy (SWN) | No Comments

Six More Stock Tips from the U.S. Government

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

We can all agree that the jobs report was pretty lousy. On a year-over-year basis, the growth in employment is barely staying positive.

However, as Jim Cramer likes to point out, there’s always a bull market somewhere, and regular readers probably know I like to use the economic reports as a source of stock ideas. Until they launch an “Economy ETF” (believe me, it won’t be long before somebody tries), that means sifting through the reports to find the industries and companies that are most poised to benefit from the prevailing trends. In this morning’s jobs report, that was pretty easy. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, only five industries are showing statistically significant job growth:

  • Hospitals
  • Ambulatory health care services
  • Nursing and residential care facilities
  • Oil and gas extraction
  • Pipeline transportation

I’ll bet you noticed the same pattern in those industries that I did.Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

Topics: Amerigroup (AGP), Kindred Healthcare (KND), Res-Care (RSCR), Stone Energy (SGY), W&T Offshore (WTI) | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: In “Is The Oil Rally Over?” (May 29) Joe Terranova told the Fast Money traders he’s playing oil by:

In “Is The Oil Rally Over?” (May 29) Joe Terranova told the Fast Money traders he’s playing oil by:

“I’m short Hess (HES) and I’m long Southwest Airlines (LUV), long the Canadian dollar and long one of the refiners,” he said.

In the models I use, Hess scores highly for earnings momentum and price momentum but poorly for free cash flow. Southwest Airlines gets high marks for earnings quality and free cash flow but scores low for return potential.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

Topics: Hess (HES) | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: CNBC Stock Blog: Jason Votruba likes small-cap energy. What Web Extra stock(s) did he recommend to CNBC.com?

CNBC Stock Blog: Jason Votruba likes small-cap energy. What Web Extra stock(s) did he recommend to CNBC.com?

Web Extras for CNBC.com Readers:

Votruba also likes Woodward Governor (WGOV) and Unit Corporation (UNT).

In the models I follow, Woodward Governor does pretty well.  It scores among the best for earnings momentum, earnings quality and price momentum. However, its return potential is among the worst.

Unit has a similar profile, though the breakdown differs. It merits high rankings for earnings momentum, price momentum and return potential but poorly for free cash flow.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

Topics: Unit Corp. (UNT), Woodward Governer (WGOV) | No Comments

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: On Wednesday, Cramer revealed his Wind Index. Which “Windex” stock was NOT one of his previous calls?

On Wednesday, Cramer revealed his Wind Index. Which “Windex” stock was NOT one of his previous calls?

But there are four other names, most likely new to Mad Money viewers, that Cramer’s using to round out the Windex.

Ameron (AMN) deals mainly in water pipeline systems but also has a wind-tower manufacturing business that could double in size this year.

The three other stocks all trade over the counter here in the States. Vestas

Vestas Wind Systems A/S

VWDRY


43.2  UNCH  0

OTC

Quote  |  Chart  |  News  |  Profile

 (VWDRY), the largest play on the global wind market, Cramer called it, that makes wind turbines and towers; Broadwind Energy (BWEN), a wind-farm construction and infrastructure play that also makes wind tower; and Clipper Wind Power (CRPWF), a turbine manufacturer based in the United Kingdom.

I have written about another Windex member, Thomas & Betts (TNB) here.

Topics: Ameron (AMN), Broadwind Energy (BWEN), Clipper Wind Power (CRPWF), Vestas (VWDRY) | No Comments