CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: In the CNBC.com feature, “Can You Beat The Market With This ETF Portfolio?”, which ETF is weighted 30%?
In the CNBC.com feature, “Can You Beat The Market With This ETF Portfolio?”, which ETF is weighted 30%?
SPY 30%
In the CNBC.com feature, “Can You Beat The Market With This ETF Portfolio?”, which ETF is weighted 30%?
SPY 30%
In the feature, “ETFs Provide Cover When Markets Get Crazy,” which ETF does John Schloegel recommend?
Nevertheless, Schloegel likes a variety of ETFs, with exposure to alternative energy, materials, commodities and utilities.
Some of his favorites include: iShares Dow Jones Basic US Materials (IYM) up nearly 12 percent this year and nearly 23 percent over the past 12 months; Poweshares Water (PHO), which tracks domestic water-oriented businesses and is up 11 percent in the past year, and Claymore S&P Global Water (CGW), which is like PHO but is focused internationally.
Scholegel also points to one of the more popular ETFs, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) fund, which tracks the commodity’s movement as a good diversification tool. The fund is up about 34 percent over the past 12 months.
Looks like an “all of the above” situation.”
In Fast Money’s June 6 Web Extra segment, “The Week Ahead,” what topics did the traders offer predictions for?
In Friday’s Web Extra the traders reveal how they’re playing oil, Apple and inflation data in the week ahead.
In the models I follow Apple gets high marks for price momentum, but low marks for return potential and earnings quality. I have generally written positively about Apple stock in the past.
On June 3, George Soros said oil prices will not “crash” any time soon. What reason(s) did the billionaire cite?
Hungarian-born Soros said commodity index trading “is still inflating the bubble,” but oil prices have “a strong foundation in reality.”
While I’m not exactly counting on a crash, I’m hoping I can restock my oil position (USO) at lower prices.
Web Video hunt: On Monday, what did Holland & Co. chairman Mike Holland blame for high oil prices?
He, like I, blames them on supply and demand.
On Friday, Rebecca Darst said options traders are looking at chips. What reason(s) did she cite?
Here’s the video. It seems to me like she mentions Infineon’s (IFX) guidance cut, a recent Barron’s article and TI’s (TXN - Annual Report) lukewarm share price. In other words, all of the above.
Infineon doesn’t show up on my screens and Texas Instruments ranks pretty neutrally. I personally think the semiconductor industry should do well, and own the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) and Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM.PK) - though the latter position is a little stub spun out from the SMH when the company was delisted.
Disclosure: William Trent has a long position in SMH.
Energy strategist John Kilduff used which social-psychology term in his oil blog “The End of Daze”?
There was almost a herd mentality that emerged last week that prices would proceed inexorably higher, and that is almost always a bad sign on Wall Street.
As I noted at the time, I also took it as a sign of a top and sold my position in oil (USO) in hopes of buying back later at a lower price.
Hope I’m not getting too cute here, as I think the long-term trend in oil prices remains upward. But all the “oil crisis” talk on CNBC, along with some other indications that the market is a little frothy here, have led me to take my money out of the oil ETF in hopes of using the same amount of cash to buy more shares later.
What did Goldman Sachs’ Abby Joseph Cohen call a “pretty good hedge against inflation”?
“We think that equities in general tend to be a pretty good hedge against inflation,” she said. “Equities and shares do well in a period of moderate inflation.”
A comparison of our tax returns would no doubt indicate that Abby’s opinion is more highly valued than mine. Nonetheless, I will give mine here.
First, what does she mean by “moderate inflation?” Stocks have tended to do well over time, and inflation has been moderate over time, so I suppose that is all correct. Meaningless, but correct.
Typically, to be considered an inflation hedge, an asset’s returns should be highly correlated with inflation rates. Alternatively, if the asset returns preserve purchasing power over time it can be considered inflation resistant.
Equities do seem to cover the second criteria. According to
Managing Investment Portfolios: A Dynamic Process (CFA Institute Investment Series), “companies’ earnings tend to increase with inflation, whereas payments on conventional bonds are fixed in nominal terms. [However…] corporate income taxes and capital gains tax rates typically are not inflation indexed.” Also, the earnings multiple is inversely related to inflation in the same way that bond prices are (a higher discount rate).
As a result of these conflicting signals, “the very-long run real return on stocks in the United States has been relatively insensitive to realized inflation rates.” (Emphasis added.) Equities are not so much a hedge against inflation as an asset class that does not fare as poorly as some others. Furthermore, they have a negative correlation (ibid p. 526) with unexpected inflation (such as we are seeing today).
Commodities, by contrast, and particularly storable commodities directly related to economic activity, have a positive relation to unexpected inflation. Energy, and to a lesser degree precious metals, are true inflation hedges. Is it then any wonder that such commodities are doing well now, and equities aren’t? Whether this will continue is a function of where inflation goes from here, not a function of equities being a “pretty good hedge against inflation.”
Another asset class that has typically been a good inflation hedge is real estate - and raw land in particular. However, in light of the current economic situation the past may not prove to be a reliable indicator in this case.
Disclosure: At time of publication William Trent is long oil (USO) and gold (GLD) through ETFs.
Disclosure: Author is long STREETTRACKS GOLD (GLD) at time of publication.
Market Insider blog: On May 9, what did John Kilduff say was his upside target for crude oil?
Kilduff said “We continue to maintain an upside target of $138 per barrel for crude oil.”
Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent owns shares of the Oil ETF (USO)