In a July 15 CNBC interview, Jim Rogers used which metaphor in discussing a Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac bailout?
CNBC Stock Blog: On Tuesday, Jim Rogers specifically said he has been short:
Rogers noted that he’s “been short Fannie Mae since I came here three years ago or four years ago,” adding that “I’m short lots of banks.”
In the Cramer blog post, “How to Survive the Banking Meltdown”, which bank ranked “Almost as Bad as the Worst”?
Almost as Bad as the Worst: National City (NCC), Washington Mutual (WM) and First Horizon (FHN)
FIRST HORIZON NATL CORP
FHN
7.23 1.34 +22.75%
NYSE
Picks & Pans: In “Options Bubble on Financial Trouble,” whose “implied volatility” shot up 101% Monday?
“Keep an eye on Washington Mutual,” sha said. “When I spoke to your producers at about 10:30 a.m. this morning, its implied volatility was up 37 percent. When I left the office to come to the studio here, it was up 101 percent, and again we saw traders selling volatility in the front month.”
In Jim Cramer’s blog post “A Bottom For Fannie and Freddie” what term does he use to describe Bush market policies?
Bush, who has been a “hands off, laissez-faire” president in terms of the financial markets, abruptly changed his tune on Fannie (FNM - Annual Report) and Freddie (FRE) in a news conference earlier in the day by sending a message of hope that these institutions must be preserved, but that they don’t need more capital.
In a July 8 feature, Boone Pickens told CNBC he’s sticking with $150 oil for 2008. But where did Lehman Bros. see oil?
Also on Tuesday, JP Morgan (JPM - Annual Report) said U.S. crude futures may hit $150 later this month, while Lehman Brothers (LEH) raised its oil price forecast to an average $127 a barrel for 2008 from its previous assumption of $105.
On Monday, Rebecca Darst said banks were rattled by the options action surrounding which stock(s)?
This seemed to get under way on Thursday, in any event, with Zions Bancorp (ZION - Annual Report), after an analyst suggested that Zions may face mortgage defaults in Arizona and Nevada.”Darst said the options action around Zion sent ripples through the whole sector.
In the models I follow, Zions gets high marks for potential return and free cash flow, but scores poorly for earnings momentum, earnings quality and price momentum.
Web video hunt: On July 7, Stifel Nicolaus’ David Lutz weighed in on financial stocks. He recommended buying:
Mastercard (MC)
My latest column is up at RealMoney.
With the stock market flirting with “official” bear market territory, I realized I hadn’t written a bearish piece in a couple of months. Not wanting to buck the trend any longer, I decided to look through the models I follow to see which stocks might be on the pricey side. I think I found one in ACI Worldwide (ACIW) .
ACI develops, markets, installs and supports a broad line of software products and services primarily focused on facilitating electronic payments. The company’s products and services compete with offerings by Fiserv (FISV - Annual Report) , Fidelity National Information Systems (FIS) , S1 Corporation (SONE) , Metavante (MV) , Euronet (EEFT) , Fair Isaac (FIC) , Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) .
About the only argument one can make in favor of a long position is that the stock has come down a lot — nearly 50% from last July’s peak. Unfortunately, at last July’s peak it had already come down a lot from the prior year’s peak. It is amazing to me that a stock performing so poorly can still be valued as highly as it is. For now, I’m not counting on a reversal in price momentum.
For those of ACI Worldwide’s peers that have earnings on which to base a P/E multiple, the average P/E is about 16. At 16 times the 58-cent current 2009 consensus estimate for ACI Worldwide, the stock would trade at just $9.28 — 46% below the current level. Even at the 21 times multiple S1 enjoys, the downside could be 30%. And those prices assume the company will actually earn what analysts believe it will. As noted earlier, that has not been a safe bet of late.
Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.
In the CNBC Stock Blog, “Brokerage Stocks: Go Long,” what did Ryan Lentell call “probably the best set-up firm”?
What of perennial favorite Goldman Sachs (GS - Annual Report)?
“Long-term…Goldman’s probably the best set-up firm,” he said. “It’s the most pricey, and the market realizes that…I think it’s undervalued today, but I think you can get some better values in some of its competitors.”
In the models I use, Goldman looks far less terrible than most of its peers. Its low rating for free cash flow is offset by a high earnings quality rating, giving the firm a net neutral.
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