My latest column is up at RealMoney.

With the stock market flirting with “official” bear market territory, I realized I hadn’t written a bearish piece in a couple of months. Not wanting to buck the trend any longer, I decided to look through the models I follow to see which stocks might be on the pricey side. I think I found one in ACI Worldwide (ACIW) .

ACI develops, markets, installs and supports a broad line of software products and services primarily focused on facilitating electronic payments. The company’s products and services compete with offerings by Fiserv (FISV) , Fidelity National Information Systems (FIS) , S1 Corporation (SONE) , Metavante (MV) , Euronet (EEFT) , Fair Isaac (FIC) , Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) .

About the only argument one can make in favor of a long position is that the stock has come down a lot — nearly 50% from last July’s peak. Unfortunately, at last July’s peak it had already come down a lot from the prior year’s peak. It is amazing to me that a stock performing so poorly can still be valued as highly as it is. For now, I’m not counting on a reversal in price momentum.

For those of ACI Worldwide’s peers that have earnings on which to base a P/E multiple, the average P/E is about 16. At 16 times the 58-cent current 2009 consensus estimate for ACI Worldwide, the stock would trade at just $9.28 — 46% below the current level. Even at the 21 times multiple S1 enjoys, the downside could be 30%. And those prices assume the company will actually earn what analysts believe it will. As noted earlier, that has not been a safe bet of late.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

In honor of Stock Market Beat’s birthday next week, we are looking through the archives for some of our best posts. As it happens, several of them investigate whether companies are using aggressive accounting practices. Who’s cooking the books?
Is it DELL?

Is it Xerox?

Is it Fidelity National Information Services?

Is it Ceradyne?

Or maybe Finisar?

The comment box is open.

Summary: Services are holding up fairly well in the current market.
PPI data for telecom shows that recent mergers have resulted in a less hostile pricing environment:

Watch List News

National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Awards $69 Million Contract over five years to Accenture for Human Capital Management.

Leading customer care and billing solutions provider CSG Systems (CSGS) reported an upside earnings surprise and promoted Mike Scott to executive vice president and chief operating officer.

Credit reporting agency Equifax (EFX) earned $69.6 million, or 53 cents per share, up 11 percent from $62.6 million, or 47 cents per share, during the same period a year ago. Excluding certain items, the company earned 51 cents per share. Sales rose 7 percent to $387.7 million from last year’s $363.4 million. Analysts were looking for earnings of 50 cents per share on sales of $388.4 million. Shares fell on concerns of slowing growth in the face of declining mortgage applications.
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS), a leading global provider of technology services to financial institutions, announced financial results for the second quarter of 2006. Consolidated revenue increased to $1.02 billion, Net earnings increased to $66.0 million and Net earnings per diluted share was $0.34. “FIS generated another quarter of solid operating performance. Year-to- date pro forma revenue growth of 6.2% and EBITDA growth of 10.4% are in line with our original full year expectations,” stated FIS Chairman William P. Foley, II. “With strong sales growth in the first half of the year and the recent launch of our new item processing and BPO operation in Brazil, we are increasing our full year outlook to reflect pro forma revenue growth of 5% to 7% percent, EBITDA growth of 10% to 12% and cash earnings per diluted share of $2.06 to $2.12.”

Rent-A-Center, Inc. (RCII), the nation’s largest rent-to-own operator, announced a messy quarter but the stock rallied sharply on an increase to guidance. The Company reported total revenues for the quarter ended June 30, 2006 of $583.6 million, a $3.0 million increase from $580.6 million for the same period in the prior year. Reported net earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2006 were $39.8 million, or $0.56 per diluted share, representing an increase of 7.7% from the $0.52 per diluted share, or net earnings of $39.6 million for the same period in the prior year, when excluding the benefit of the 2005 tax audit reserve credit. “Our second quarter same store sales continued a positive trend in 2006,” commented Mark E. Speese, the Company’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “Our same store sales increased 1.1% for the quarter, which is primarily related to changes in our promotional activities as well as an increase in the number of units on rent,” Speese continued. “In addition, we believe our customer has adjusted to the current level of fuel costs. As a result of these factors, we are raising our fiscal 2006 guidance to $2.08 to $2.15 diluted earnings per share from $2.00 to $2.10,” Speese stated.

Other News

Standard & Poors downgraded Convergys (CVG) on fears that it will lose major customers.

Looking through the latest 10Q for Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) we were reminded of the roundabout way the company came into being.

Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (“FIS” or the “Company”) is a leading provider of technology solutions, processing services, and information-based services to the financial services industry. The Company’s formation began in early 2004 and was substantially completed on March 8, 2005, when all the entities, assets and liabilities that are included in these Consolidated and Combined Financial Statements were organized under one legal entity. The formation was accomplished through the contribution of entities and operating assets and liabilities to a newly formed subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial, Inc. and subsidiaries (“FNF”). The Consolidated and Combined Financial Statements included herein reflect the historical financial position, results of operations and cash flows of the businesses included in the formation. On February 1, 2006, the Company completed the Merger with Certegy, Inc. (the “Merger”) (note 4) which was accounted for as a reverse acquisition and purchase accounting was applied to the acquired assets and assumed liabilities of Certegy. The results of operations are only included since the acquisition date.

As a result of the Merger, each outstanding share of FIS common stock was exchanged for 0.6396 shares of common stock of Certegy, which has a par value of $0.01 per share. All share and per share amounts disclosed in these financial statements and footnotes for periods prior to February 1, 2006 are presented as converted by the exchange ratio used in the Merger.

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