July 9th, 2008
In a July 8 feature, Boone Pickens told CNBC he’s sticking with $150 oil for 2008. But where did Lehman Bros. see oil?
Also on Tuesday, JP Morgan (JPM - Annual Report) said U.S. crude futures may hit $150 later this month, while Lehman Brothers (LEH) raised its oil price forecast to an average $127 a barrel for 2008 from its previous assumption of $105.
June 24th, 2008
In the CNBC Stock Blog, “Brokerage Stocks: Go Long,” what did Ryan Lentell call “probably the best set-up firm”?
What of perennial favorite Goldman Sachs (GS - Annual Report)?
“Long-term…Goldman’s probably the best set-up firm,” he said. “It’s the most pricey, and the market realizes that…I think it’s undervalued today, but I think you can get some better values in some of its competitors.”
In the models I use, Goldman looks far less terrible than most of its peers. Its low rating for free cash flow is offset by a high earnings quality rating, giving the firm a net neutral.
June 17th, 2008
In “Take Your Position: Financials” Fast Money’s Guy Adami says “take at least half your position off the table” for:
If you’re long Lehman (LEH) take at least half your position off the table, he replies.
June 17th, 2008
In Bob Pisani’s blog post “Using Analysts As Contrarians?” which financial firm’s employee is mentioned by his full name?
How about Guy Moszkowski at Merrill Lynch?
June 10th, 2008
n “Lehman to Raise $6 Billion, Expects $2.8 Billion Loss” (June 9), who offered insights to CNBC’s Squawk Box?
David Einhorn, of hedge fund Greenlight Capital, which has sold shares of Lehman short in a bet they will decline, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that he wonders if Lehman is raising enough money to fix its problems.
In the models I follow, Lehman (LEH) looks good for return potential, but its earnings momentum, price momentum and free cash flow are lousy.
June 6th, 2008
In “What Options are Saying about Lehman” Rebecca Darst said “the question…on everyone’s lips” is whether there is a
“The question, I think, on everyone’s lips is whether we’re seeing a Bear Stearns-like setup in Lehman Brothers,” said Rebecca Darst of Interactive Brokers on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
I’m still avoiding Lehman Brothers (LEH).
June 6th, 2008
In “Top Videos: Hottest-Selling Funds, Lehman & More” what type of meat does Cramer reference?
Stop Trading, Listen to Cramer!
“We’re in a situation right now that if you wanted good chicken, that you weren’t worried about because you like chicken ‘cause your diet is now pro-protein and you’re in China, the good housekeeping seal of approval is Kentucky Fried Chicken. And, Yum Brands (YUM) is moving big there… “
In the models I follow, Lehman (LEH) looks good for return potential, but its earnings momentum, price momentum and free cash flow are lousy.
Yum Brands (YUM), on the other hand, looks pretty good. It earns high marks for earnings quality, price momentum and return potential.
May 15th, 2008
In the slideshow, “Highest Paid CEOs,” which big boss has the No. 1 paycheck?
John Thain of Merrill Lynch (ML)
Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.
April 23rd, 2008
The spread between the return on 10-year Treasuries and Baa-rated corporate bonds was 336 basis points last week. In historical terms, that is very high. In fact, the only times in the last 50 years that it was higher were the trough of the tech wreck and the 1982 recession/stagflation busting cycle.

High credit spreads make it harder for corporations to borrow and invest. As spreads widen, the economy tends to slow.
For investors, however, high spreads represent additional potential returns for a given unit of risk-taking. Peak levels of risk premia typically precede strong returns on risky assets - even if the strong returns are short-lived, as was the case in 2003.
Spreads have hooked down slightly as the credit woes that peaked following the Bear Stearns (BSC) debacle may finally be stabilizing. Time will tell whether that was “the” peak or whether the current easing is simply a lull.
March 25th, 2008
Regular readers know I follow the spread between Baa-rated bonds and Treasuries to get a feel for how much they are willing to accept risk.
Last week, as the market rallied on the initial news of the JP Morgan (JPM - Annual Report) and Fed-led rescue of Bear Stearns (BSC) I said “The big questions are whether, how much, and how quickly the spreads will begin to narrow again. That will be the real signal from bondholders that the worst is behind us from the current crisis.”
Instead, credit spreads continued to widen. They averaged 343 basis points last week, up from 340 in the prior week.

It remains a double-edged sword. As long as the spread continues to widen, risky assets will perform poorly. However, the abnormally high risk premia we are currently seeing indicate that longer-term investors will be paid more handsomely for accepting such risks than they have been paid on average in the past.