May 15th, 2008
On May 6, Fast Money asked “Is The Housing Crisis Over?” Guy Adami said the best trade was:
I think the best trade is Home Depot (HD - Annual Report) adds Guy Adami.
Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent holds no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.
May 15th, 2008
What did Jim Cramer call “the Tony Soprano stock”?
But Tony Soprano’s official title was “waste-management consultant.” Therefore, waste management is a recession-proof business.OK, admittedly there are some gaping holes in that formula. But that doesn’t mean Waste Management (WMI) the company, isn’t “fairly recession-resistant,” CEO David Steiner told Cramer Tuesday.
Personally, I have expressed a preference for Allied Waste (AW).
Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.
May 14th, 2008
In Monday’s Fast Money Web Extra, what M&A pair did the FM traders discuss?
In Monday’s Web Extra, Pete Najarian reveals which chip maker he thinks is a buy. Also the latest play on the XM / Sirius merger.
Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial positions in XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) or Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI).
May 13th, 2008
On May 9’s “Stop Trading”, Jim Cramer warned NOT to buy certain stocks. Which one did he call a “travesty”?
Citigroup (C - Annual Report), AIG (AIG) and Circuit City (CC). Three of the worst companies America has to offer, at least that’s how Jim Cramer sees it.
But it’s AIG that takes the cake. The world’s biggest insurer has become a “travesty,” according to Cramer.
Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.
May 13th, 2008
In March I was bearish on casino operator MGM Mirage (MGM), saying “At an enterprise value of 3.8 times 2007 revenue and 21 times 2007 income from continuing operations, MGM looks about as fully valued as one can imagine. The acquisition of Harrah’s, which recently closed after a year-long process, valued that company at 2.6 times 2007 revenue, and 17 times 2007 operating income. And that deal was launched at the height of the private equity boom. It seems wishful thinking to expect a similar valuation in today’s environment.”
Since then, MGM is down 20% and the S&P 500 is up 5%. Meanwhile, casino operators are not scoring highly in the models I follow. I don’t really have time to analyze any of them deeply, but thought it would be worthwhile to point out a couple of the notable model results.
Ameristar Casino (ASCA)
- Earnings momentum: Negative
- Earnings quality: Negative
- Price Momentum: Negative
- Free cash flow: Negative
- Return potential: Neutral
Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK)
- Earnings momentum: Negative
- Earnings quality: Negative
- Price Momentum: Negative
- Free cash flow: Negative
- Return potential: Neutral
Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.
May 12th, 2008
Mark Travis said he likes “redneck stocks.” On April 24, The CIO of Intrepid Capital Funds recommended:
- Comcast (CMCSA)
- Anheuser Busch (BUD)
- Speedway Motorsports (TRK)
- International Speedway (ISCA)
May 12th, 2008
My latest column is up at RealMoney.
I think Rent-A-Center (RCII) can benefit from the slowdown in consumer spending and the tightening of credit standards.
If Rent-A-Center were to receive the same price-to-book multiple as Aaron Rents, it could trade above $28 per share today. While I don’t believe that will happen overnight, over the next five years Rent-A-Center could see high-single-digit earnings per share growth and also expand its price-to-book multiple to the 1.9 level. The combination of earnings growth and valuation expansion could generate annual returns averaging 15% or more.
Here’s how the company scores on the Stock Market Beat models:
- Earnings momentum: Positive
- Earnings quality: Positive
- Price momentum: Neutral
- Free cash flow: Positive
- Return potential: Positive
Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.
May 12th, 2008
On April 25, Tech Check’s Jim Goldman blogged on Microsofts Yahoo bid. How did he describe Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmers rule ?
Goldman speaks of Steve Ballmer’s decade-long, iron-fisted rule of the world’s largest software maker
May 12th, 2008
On Monday, April 28, James Altucher of Formula Capital recommended which food-inflation trade to CNBC viewers?
Picks included Sysco (SYY) and Sadia (SDA) while pans included General Mills (GIS), McDonald’s (MCD - Annual Report) and Kellogg (K).
May 5th, 2008
A while back I complained that several stocks I had been bearish about had gotten boosts from takeout offers. Namely, Diebold (DBD), Delta Airlines (DAL) and Yahoo! (YHOO).
Delta stock finally broke down, and then agreed to a merger at much lower share prices.
Today I look less stupid about Yahoo, though the stock is still up 5% from the date of my bearish article, compared to a 4.3% decline in the S&P 500.
So that’s two down and one to go. Each reduction in my apparent stupidity is welcome.
Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.