In Fast Money’s Web Extra segment “Najarian’s Sweet Trade” which food & beverage purveyor did Pete Najarian praise?

In Wednesday’s Web Extra Pete Najarian reveals why sweet tea makes him sweet on McDonald’s.

I haven’t tried MCD’s sweet tea. However, I like the strong scores it posted for earnings momentum, earnings quality and price momentum. It’s score on return potential, however, is low.

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

Jim Cramer says Yum! Brands (YUM) is the best way to play China’s growing appetite for protein. Yum! management has called China its number-one growth strategy, and expects to have 3,000 stores in the country by year-end.

To my mind, the fundamentals look tasty enough to take a bite of, regardless of whether it is the “best” play on China or simply a good one. The company has three other growth prongs as well: aggressive international expansion outside China; improving U.S. brand positions, consistency and returns; and driving industry-leading long-term shareholder and franchisee value.

Free cash flow, measured as cash flow from operations less capital expenditures, has exceeded $800 million over the last 12 months. The resulting 4.7% free-cash-flow yield offers more than a 100-basis-point risk premium over 5-year Treasuries, even before considering the company’s impressive growth.

As to the growth, analysts are expecting annual earnings growth of 12% over the next five years. That estimate seems reasonable to me, as it is below the 14% growth rate experienced over the last five years, and well below the company’s sustainable growth rate based on its return on equity. At 19 times this year’s earnings, Yum!’s valuation is right in line with its five-year average. With no change in valuation, the stock could reach $41 per share simply by meeting analysts’ estimates over the next year. Combined with the 2.1% dividend yield, that implies a total return of 15%.Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

On June 5, Cramer sang the praises of Yum! Brands. How high did he say the stock would go?

While other restaurant stocks are foundering thanks to soaring oil prices and raw costs, YUM (YUM) is capitalizing on new business in overseas. Cramer said the stock “blows through” $45.

In “Top Videos: Hottest-Selling Funds, Lehman & More” what type of meat does Cramer reference?

Stop Trading, Listen to Cramer!

“We’re in a situation right now that if you wanted good chicken, that you weren’t worried about because you like chicken ‘cause your diet is now pro-protein and you’re in China, the good housekeeping seal of approval is Kentucky Fried Chicken. And, Yum Brands (YUM) is moving big there… “

In the models I follow, Lehman (LEH) looks good for return potential, but its earnings momentum, price momentum and  free cash flow are lousy.

Yum Brands (YUM), on the other hand, looks pretty good. It earns high marks for earnings quality, price momentum and return potential.

With option expirations last Friday, many of the options I had written have expired. Generally speaking that was a good thing for me, as it meant I was able to keep the option premium. It also meant that I had to reload many of the positions, which I did yesterday.

There were a couple of situations in which I would have done better by simply buying or selling the stock outright rather than selling the options. In other cases, I would have fared worse. Over the long term, I think the option writing strategy will be more rewarding and less risky than a stock-only strategy.

The new option positions I have written (all expiring in June) are:

• Coach (COH) $35 puts
• Hansen Natural (HANS) $30 calls
• Radioshack (RSH) $15 puts
• Ansys (ANSS) $45 call options
• Starbucks (SBUX) $17 call options
• Adobe (ADBE) $45 call options
• Ceradyne (CRDN) $40 put options
• Nutrisystem (NTRI) $20 put options

I also sold outright a position in Itron (ITRI), which was too few shares to cover with a call option. I had a nice profit on the shares, but they have been acting punk lately and I’m a little worried about the potential for new smart meter competition. I might be interested in getting back at a cheaper price.

Disclosure: Obviously, at the time of publication William Trent has a financial position in all of the companies mentioned in this article with the exception of Itron.

Disclosure: Author is long Starbucks (SBUX) at time of publication.

On Monday, April 28, James Altucher of Formula Capital recommended which food-inflation trade to CNBC viewers?

Picks included Sysco (SYY) and Sadia (SDA) while pans included General Mills (GIS), McDonald’s (MCD - Annual Report) and Kellogg (K - Annual Report).

I have begun a new series of posts at RealMoney focusing on Wallflowers - stocks that have limited analyst coverage. By identifying stocks that fall below Wall Street’s radar screen the hope is to find some undervalued gems.

It may seem odd, on the heels of its deal to acquire Wendy’s (WEN) , to classify Triarc (TRY) as a wallflower. Certainly it has not shied away from publicity of late. However, in market terms, a wallflower is an under-covered stock, and with just one analyst currently covering the name, Triarc certainly qualifies.

I think the acquisition will do several things for Triarc:

• Raise its profile
• Bring some of the 8 analysts covering Wendy’s on board
• Reduce the overhang of Nelson Peltz’s virtual controlling interest
• Simplify the ownership structure
• Improve the capital structure

As to valuation, with the restructuring and other deal-related anomalies, estimating earnings is likely to be something of a guessing game. Instead, I’d look to a more stable valuation metric such as price-to-book-value. According to Zacks Research Wizard, the average price-to-book in the restaurant industry is 4.0 times. I don’t believe the new Wendy’s will deserve the industry average, but it could merit 3 times book value. At that valuation, the shares could rise nearly 19% to $8.11. And that’s not bad for a start.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

Zacks Investment Research has provided Stock Market Beat with a complimentary trial subscription to Research Wizard.

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

I dissect the jobs report to see which industries are showing the best/worst growth in new hiring, on the thesis that companies in these industries may present investment opportunities.

The fastest growing industries are restaurants, hospitals, mine services, machinery, and oil & gas extraction. The worst were transportation equipment and a plethora of housing-related sectors.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent owns shares of Starbucks (SBUX).

Disclosure: Author is long Starbucks (SBUX) at time of publication.

Starbucks launches chocolate line:

Starbucks Coffee Co. (SBUX) has launched a line of chocolates laced with the flavors of its coffees and teas, such as Milk Chocolate Caramel Macchiato Truffles, and milk and dark chocolate infused with Tazo brand teas.The chocolates, which are made by The Hershey Company (HSY), were launched this month at grocers and other retailers nationwide. For now, however, the chocolates are not available at Starbucks coffee shops.

When I wrote about Hershey’s, I said “at this point, even if Hershey’s problems don’t go away, merely not getting worse should be enough to get the shares back on track.”

One of Hershey’s problems has been market share loss to premium chocolates. A difficulty in fighting this is that Hershey’s own brand will not attract premium customers. Enter Starbucks, who has exactly the right kind of brand for the task at hand.

I’ve also said that the problem for Starbucks is in the licensed stores, which are typically located inside other retailers such as Safewa. These stores dilute the brand by failing to provide the “Starbucks experience.” Licensed products, on the other hand, can fit into the premium brand (if done right.)

That said, it seems clear to me that this partnership offers more to Hershey’s, whose $5 billion in annual sales come from chocolate products sold primarily at grocers and other retailers, than to Starbucks, whose $10 billion in annual sales come primarily through coffee products sold in its own coffee shops.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent owns shares of Starbucks (SBUX)

Disclosure: Author is long Starbucks (SBUX) at time of publication.

photo credit: Zesmerelda

This article is a reprint of my February 25, 2008 RealMoney column

What is wrong with Dean Foods (DF)? After all with everyone from Starbucks (SBUX) to Hershey’s (HSY) getting hurt by rising milk costs, I would expect the “largest processor and distributor of milk and various other dairy products in the United States” to be living in the land of milk and honey.

Yet somehow, Dean has managed to get itself on the wrong side of every dairy-related position (so much for Peter Lynch’s invest in what you know theory.) For example, the company describes the current dairy environment in its latest 10Q: “As a consequence of higher raw milk costs, we have seen a related increase in shrink costs and reduced profits from excess cream sales. At the same time, sales volumes in the Dairy Group have softened as consumers react to the higher retail prices. We are also seeing a shift from our branded fluid milk products to private label products resulting in reduced gross profit. In our White Wave segment, results continue to be negatively impacted by the oversupply of organic milk.”

High commodity costs during a period of oversupply? It is as if the law of supply and demand has been overturned. And Dean doesn’t expect to see much improvement. “As we look beyond the first quarter, we find it difficult to have much confidence in current dairy commodity forecasts given these unprecedented levels of dairy commodity market instability,” management warned.

As a result of this lack of confidence, the consensus earnings estimate for 2008 has dropped from $1.45 to $1.33 over the last month. The Zacks rank, a measure of earnings momentum, has fallen two points to the worst level of five. That rank puts Dean among the worst 5% of companies followed on the basis of earnings momentum. Yet still the estimates are well above management’s own guidance for “at least $1.20 per share.”

If there is a bright side to Dean’s horrible earnings outlook, it is that the quality of earnings remains relatively sound. The accrual ratio, which represents the difference between cash earnings and accounting earnings, should ideally hover around zero. That is more or less what Dean’s has done.

Source: Zacks Research Wizard, compiled by William Trent

So, with the earnings quality indicating that the lousy earnings are at least trustworthy, I have to ask whether the current “50% off” share price reflects all the bad news. Unfortunately, no matter how I look at it it’s hard for me to think that it does.

The P/E of 20x management’s guidance is above the company’s five-year average of 17.5x. And even being willing to look way ahead, assuming the current consensus estimate of $1.76 for 2009 doesn’t get cut and that investors are willing to pay the average multiple for them, the target price would be about $30. The potential 25% gain over 1-2 years curdles when it has to be based on so many assumptions.

The consensus five-year growth rate of 11.5% also seems incredibly optimistic, given that the same analysts are expecting a 5% sales increase this year to be followed by a modest decline next year. And even assuming the 11.5% growth occurs due to margin expansion, I’d expect much of it to be eroded by a contracting valuation given Dean’s outlandish 63x price/book ratio. Considering that total return is a function of growth and the change in valuation, I think the two would offset each other in this case, perhaps resulting in annual total return in the mid single digits.

Finally, my favorite measure is the free cash flow yield, and Dean looks far from attractive on this basis. On either a free cash flow to equity or a free cash flow to enterprise basis, the yield comes to about 4%. True, it is better than the current yield on 5-year Treasuries. But given the risks involved, I think there are many more attractive opportunities.

In fact, either of the other two victims of milk pricing look far better to me. Starbucks could have a 6% free cash flow yield based on its plans to slow expansion (and related expenditures) while Hershey’s is already at a 6.7% free cash flow yield.

Long story short, I think Dean’s chairman is on the right track by selling shares.

Disclosures: William Trent owns shares of Starbucks (SBUX)

Zacks Investment Research has provided Stock Market Beat with a complimentary trial subscription to Research Wizard.