My latest column is up at RealMoney.

Given that the grocery industry is typically classified as noncyclical, nondiscretionary and defensive, Supervalu’s (SVU) stock chart looks pretty scary. After reaching a high of more than $47 a share last year, the stock drifted down along with other grocers, then plummeted in late December and early January after it lowered its fiscal 2008 (which ended in February) earnings to a range of $2.91 to $2.97 a share before one-time acquisition-related costs. The original forecast was for $2.93 to $3.03 a share. The stock ultimately hit $26 in March.

When you cut through the noise, however, earnings estimates for the operator of the Shaw’s, Jewel-Osco and Albertson’s chains have been fairly stable over the last few months. The final tally for 2008 came in at $2.97, just a penny shy of the midpoint of the original range. Both the 2009 and 2010 estimates were raised a couple of months ago and have since been trimmed somewhat, but remain above the original levels. The company met or exceeded analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters.

Analysts expect Supervalu to post annual earnings growth of 6% over the next three to five years, an estimate I think is reasonable. I also think the company can expand its price-to-book multiple to the 1.39 industry average over the same period, which would add another 10% annually, for a total annual return of 16%.

Seen another way, if the debt reduction continues, I see no reason the shares wouldn’t merit the 13 times earnings accorded to Safeway. If the company earns “about” $3.30 a share in fiscal 2010, the math could work out to a $43 share price, or a 36% increase from the current level. As long as they don’t get too hung up on the day-to-day fluctuations in estimates, investors could find that Supervalu lives up to its name.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

On Monday, April 28, James Altucher of Formula Capital recommended which food-inflation trade to CNBC viewers?

Picks included Sysco (SYY) and Sadia (SDA) while pans included General Mills (GIS), McDonald’s (MCD - Annual Report) and Kellogg (K - Annual Report).

This article is a reprint of my March 4, 2008 RealMoney column

When I started looking at NBTY (NTY) when it showed up on one of my screens recently, I realized a good chunk of my typical Whole Foods (WFMI - Annual Report) bill was going to their products. NBTY makes vitamins, sport supplements and other products under the brand names Nature’s Bounty, Vitamin World, Puritan’s Pride, Holland & Barrett, Rexall, Osteo-Bi-Flex, Flex-a-min, Knox, Sundown, MET-Rx, WORLDWIDE Sport Nutrition, American Health, DeTuinen, Le Naturiste, SISU, Solgar, and Ester-C.

The health food shops where I pick up my supplements (which are served through NBTY’s wholesale segment) account for nearly half the company’s total sales. The North American Retail segment (457 Vitamin World and 80 Le Naturiste shops) provided 11% of 2007 sales, European Retail (626 stores under a variety of brand names) was 31% of company revenues and the Direct Response/e-commerce segment provided 10%.

These are clearly consumer products, clearly discretionary, and clearly at risk to a consumer slowdown. Given a price of just over ten times earnings and a 10% free cash flow yield, it is also clear investors are aware of this. However, there could still be some downside given that in 2000 valuations troughed at 8.8 times earnings and 0.6 times sales.

For NBTY, the slowdown hit hard in the December 2007 quarter with flat sales and falling margins. That said, the company appears well prepared to weather a slowdown, having cut its debt load from $500 million to $210 million over the last two years. Moody’s recently upgraded its outlook to positive, which is nice for a company with high yield debt in a time of extreme credit market jitters.

The wholesale division has been the company’s strong point, with improving gross margins over the last year. The other half of the business has been poor, requiring store closings in North America. Although European retail performed relatively well in 2007, it was primarily due to currency related issues. In the first quarter, European retail sales declined 4% in local currency.

NBTY is trying to right the retail ship through its store closings and other cost saving moves. The company ended 2007 with 35 fewer stores than it started with. 71 leases are due for renewal in 2008, and the company expects to close 23 more in 2008. NBTY also plans 10 to 12 new store openings this year. In the first quarter, five stores were closed and two opened. These efforts will only be made more difficult if a recession materializes.

I have a few concerns over earnings quality. For example, in each of the last two years the company has reserved less than the actual amount charged for sales returns, bad debt and promotional incentives (an under-reserving trifecta.) However, overall earnings quality measured using the accrual ratio appears strong.

Source: Zacks Research Wizard, compiled by William A. Trent

I’m also nervous about a stock that has had such a big run over the last few weeks. But then again, I had the same concerns about Tupperware (TUP) and it has continued to outperform after rebounding from the same January low. (As a side note, American Oriental Bioengineering (AOB) could represent a catch-up play here.)

The options aren’t generating a particularly good premium right now, so there doesn’t seem much point to a put-write strategy. On the other hand, buying the March $25 puts for $0.15 (as I am writing this) seems like fairly cheap insurance on a long position, given my concerns about the recent run-up.

All in all, though NTY looks fairly cheap so do most retailers and consumer companies. Unless we can get through another quarter without a significant earnings miss or downward revision it just seems too early to call a bottom here.

Disclosures: William Trent has no positions in the stocks mentioned.

Zacks Investment Research has provided Stock Market Beat with a complimentary trial subscription to Research Wizard.

According to the Census Bureau ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $377.6 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month and 3.7 percent (±0.8%) above August 2006. Total sales for the June through August 2007 period were up 3.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2007 percent change was revised from 0.3 percent (± 0.7%)* to 0.5 percent (± 0.2%).

The 3.7% year/year gain is an improvement from 3.2% in July. Still, looking at the longer-term trend it is too early to call an improvement. Furthermore, with CPI running 2.4% year/year the real retail growth is still pretty light.

I’m sticking to my previous characterization: Good but deteriorating.

EconomicData

With the end of the first quarter approaching, it is time to adjust the names in our Watch Lists. We will price all the new lists as of the close on Friday, March 30. Today we present our planned updates to the Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy).

Though less than the Small Cap Watch List and Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy), there was still relatively high turnover in this list. 14 of the original 33 names made the cut for the new list (which was trimmed to just 26 names.) Part of the reason for the turnover was to reduce overlap between the lists. One third of the Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) names appear on each of the Small Cap and Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy)s, but there is no longer any overlap between small and large.
So without further ado, the names on the chopping block from the previous list are:

3M (MMM); Continental (CTTAY.PK); Mitsui (MITSY); Anheuser-Busch (BUD); ConocoPhillips (COP); Helix Energy (HELX); IndyMac Bancorp (NDE - Annual Report); Barr Pharmaceutical (BRL - Annual Report); Quest Diagnostics (DGX); Public Storage (PSA); ITT Educational Services (ESI); Equifax (EFX); Rent-a-Center (RCII); Kroger (KR); Ricoh (RICOY); First Data Corp. (FDC); Expeditors International (EXPD); and Keyspan (KSE).

The new list is:

With the end of the first quarter approaching, it is time to adjust the names in our Watch Lists. We will price all the new lists as of the close on Friday, March 30. Today we present our planned updates to the Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy).

As with the Small Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy), we were surprised at the amount of turnover in our screens. Only 7 of the original 29 names made the cut for the new list (which comes in at only 24 names.) Part of the reason for the turnover was to reduce the overlap between the Small Cap and Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy)s. Now there is only one-third overlapping names rather than two thirds. Furthermore, given the level of outperformance we saw in the first quarter (actually just two months) and the fact that much of those gains were achieved early, perhaps the turnover is warranted.

So without further ado, the names on the chopping block from the previous list are:

Silgan Holdings (SLGN - Annual Report); Middleby (MIDD); Olin (OLN); Vector Group (VGR); Sanderson Farms (SAFM); Tesoro (TSO); Downey Financial (DSL); Waddell & Reed (WDR); Gamco (GBL); Apria Healthcare (AHG); Quest Diagnostics (DGX); ITT Educational Services (ESI); Equifax (EFX); Delhaize Group (DEG); Papa John’s (PZZA); Rent-a-Center (RCII); Cato Corp (CTR); Dassault Systemes (DASTY); Ingram Micro (IM); Energy East (EAS); South Jersey Industries (SJI - Annual Report); and American States Water (AWR).

The new list is:

Although the organic growth at Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member Delhaize Group was nothing to write home about - particularly when compared to the recent report from Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member Kroger - the company did manage to excite speculation in Europe that a deal could be in the works with Dutch rival Ahold. Ahold better fit without some of U.S. - Reuters:

Belgium’s Delhaize would find Dutch rival Ahold a better fit without some of the latter’s U.S. operations, notably its U.S. Foodservice unit, Delhaize’s chief financial officer said on Thursday.”It becomes more complementary,” Craig Owens said in response to a question after the company’s 2006 results news conference.

The comments reignited speculation that the two may seek some form of merger, sending shares in Ahold up 4.0 percent by 1215 GMT.

Here are the highlights from 2006, as reported by Delhaize:

• Accelerating sales growth: +5.5% at identical exchange rates
• Strong comparable store sales growth in the U.S. (+2.7%) and in Belgium (+2.8%)
• Excellent full year results at Alfa-Beta in Greece with 13.5% sales growth
• Operating margin of 4.9%
• Net profit from continuing operations: +12.1% to EUR 425.6 million

Kroger showed much stronger growth in the U.S. Delhaize’s Food Lion subsidiary may suffer from poor competitive positioning.

Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member Kroger Co. (KR)  Reported Strong Fourth Quarter Results:

The Kroger Co.  today reported total sales increased 14.5% to $16.9 billion for the fourth quarter ended February 3, 2007. After adjusting for the extra week in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2006, total sales increased 5.7% over the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005.Identical supermarket sales increased 5.6% with fuel and 5.3% without fuel, based on a 13-week period in both years.

Net earnings in the fourth quarter totaled $384.8 million, or $0.54 per diluted share. The current quarter benefited by $0.03 per diluted share from the adjustments of certain deferred tax balances. This was not contemplated in the Company’s guidance.

No matter. Even after deducting the $0.03 per share, EPS were well above the consensus estimate of $0.45. Guidance was also knocked out of the park when compared to consensus estimates of $1.46 per share:

Based on the momentum of its fiscal 2006 performance, Kroger anticipates earnings of $1.60 - $1.65 per diluted share in fiscal 2007. This equates to 9 - 12% growth from the adjusted fiscal 2006 earnings per diluted share shown in Table 5. Shareholder return will be further enhanced by the Company’s dividend.

All this for a lowly grocer. Given the weakness in retail overall, it would be worth looking at a defensive non-cyclical play just for safety. To get growth on top of that is a huge bonus.

We asked, but no one answered. So we are taking our own counsel and breaking our Watch List into three portfolios: Small Cap, Mid Cap and Large Cap. Each will be tracked against the relevant S&P index going forward from their collective inception date of January 31 (priced at the close of market trading that day.)

For your viewing pleasure, the Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) (to be measured against the S&P 500) follows.

Astute observers will notice less overlap between this watch list and the names in the Small Cap Watch List and Mid Cap Watch List. This was not for lack of overlap, as the smallest S&P 500 name has a market capitalization of $600 million, which would allow for complete overlap with the Mid Caps if we chose. Instead we selected an arbitrary low of $2 billion for large-cap names, which cuts off five names that are actually in the S&P 500.
In addition, we will provide a “quick and dirty” analysis of each name, with a goal of one such analysis per day. As the name implies, the quick and dirty analysis will be incomplete. We are hoping you will join in the debate and fill the gaps in our analysis.

We asked, but no one answered. So we are taking our own counsel and breaking our Watch List into three portfolios: Small Cap, Mid Cap and Large Cap. Each will be tracked against the relevant S&P index going forward from their collective inception date of January 31 (priced at the close of market trading that day.)

For your viewing pleasure, the Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) (to be measured against the S&P 400) follows.

Astute observers will notice a significant overlap between the names in the Small Cap Watch List and this one. In fact, of the 29 names on the Small Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy), 19 are included among the 29 names in the Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy). The main reason is that we ran our screens against the criteria in the relevant indices rather than the names in the indices. Since the largest market cap in the S&P Small Cap is $3.5 billion and the smallest market cap in the S&P Mid Cap is $600 million, there is room for a good deal of overlap if one is willing to accept it.

In addition, we will provide a “quick and dirty” analysis of each name, with a goal of one such analysis per day. As the name implies, the quick and dirty analysis will be incomplete. We are hoping you will join in the debate and fill the gaps in our analysis.