Last month, astute observers (defined as those with a pulse) could notice that there were an awful lot of companies in the wireless food chain announcing disappointing results. Last week Motorola joined the club, and yesterday we got news from the third-largest US wireless carrier. Sprint to Cut 5,000 Jobs; Stock Plunges: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

Sprint Nextel Corp. reported Monday that its cell phone business suffered a net loss of 300,000 monthly subscribers in the fourth quarter and that the struggling wireless company will cut 5,000 jobs.The company’s stock plunged more than 8 percent after the financial update, which included a 2007 outlook shy of many Wall Street forecasts.

Last month we suggested that several high-multiple names might be worth avoiding. None of those stocks has since blown up, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t standing in a mine field.

The headline for the durable goods report was not very bright this morning - Durable goods orders slid 8.3 percent in Oct - Yahoo! News

New orders for U.S.-made durable goods tumbled much more than anticipated in October on a big drop in civilian aircraft but were also down unexpectedly when transportation was stripped from the total, a government report suggesting economic weakness showed on Tuesday.
Durables goods — big-ticket items expected to last three years or longer — fell 8.3 percent, the biggest drop since July 2000. The decline was propelled by a 21.7 percent fall in transportation orders, the
Commerce Department said.

But even excluding transportation orders, durables declined 1.7 percent as manufacturing, fabricated metal, and computers and electronics orders all slid.

As is our custom, however, we like to dig a little deeper into the data to determine whether there are any bright spots. Instead, what we saw for the most part was rising inventories and falling orders and shipments. All charts below are based on information provided by the U.S. Census Department and collected by Stock Market Beat.

Although last month we said it looked like it was time to play defense, even that sector is giving back much of its strength.

Also consider computers and related products. Both shipments adn orders are falling through the floor. The potential bullish case is that customers are holding off on equipment upgrades in anticipation of Microsoft (MSFT) Windows Vista. However, given the strong recent performance at Dell and Hewlett Packard (HPQ - Annual Report) this bullish case may be priced in already. That could leave investors holding a heavy bag if the Vista orders don’t come in as expected.

Communications equipment, which had formerly been bucking the trend in technology, has also seen a sharp reduction in order growth.

Semiconductors may be the bright spot, but at this point it seems too early to tell given that the one strong data point is balancing several weak ones. At the least, the strength could support the argument that slowing computer sales and orders are Vista related, and that the semiconductors will be needed to build computers in a few months.

Electrical equipment and appliances also look strong, which is probably due at least in part to strong holiday sales of flat-panel televisions.

There seem to be few places to hide.

The market being in a celebratory mood, little attention is being paid to such gloomy news as the durable goods report, which Briefing.com describes in rather bleak terms:

August durable goods new orders dropped a disappointing 0.5%.  There was nothing in the breakdown of the data to provide contrary cheer. Every key category was soft.

So, in an attempt to find the silver lining and push the market over the critical hump so we can enjoy the champagne we have had on ice since January, 2000, here are the durable goods categories that showed better growth in both shipments and new orders in August (all data sourced from US Department of Commerce, on a non-seasonally adjusted year/year basis.)

The clear winner in today’s report was Defense Capital Goods, which saw nearly a 70% rise in new orders and a 10% rise in shipments. And while the trend does nothing to help our general sense of well-being, with inventory and backlog flat and a customer with good credit quality the defense sector appears to be a good play in this environment.

The runner-up for our affections is Communications Equipment, not traditionally a defensive play but perhaps so today due to how low the sector sunk and the high credit quality of its remaining customers. Those who deride Verizon’s capital spending may not appreciate that the company is one of the last threads on which the economy hangs. At any rate, their spending appears to be lending a helping hand to the environment for comm equipment manufacturers.

In the “ehh, I guess we’ll take it” department is Transportation Equipment. New orders improved and turned positive, while shipments did just a bit better. Still, the inventory growth suggests that the industry is making too much stuff and will have to cut prices, production or both in the near future.

Finally, last but (unfortunately) not least comes Motor Vehicles and Parts.  Orders and shipments for beleaguered Detroit were both down year/year. However, they were down less than they were in July. With inventory building up further the industry may still be going to hell in a handbasket, but it will take longer to get there. That’s positive, isn’t it?

We now return to our previously scheduled celebration.

The Watch List returned 2.86 percent in its first week, which was better than the S&P 500 but not as good as the mid- or small-cap indices that are probably a better comparison. We have now indexed the Watch List to 100 effective at the June 30 close (it was billed as the Watch List for Q3, after all) and will monitor it on that basis going forward.

Here are a few news items that affected Watch List names and that we didn’t give a separate post.

Valassis Communications (VCI) cut its earnings outlook

Valassis decreased its second quarter earnings per share guidance to a range of 38 cents to 42 cents, versus earlier guidance of 49 cents to 55 cents. Full-year expectations were trimmed to a range of $1.60 to $1.80 from a previously range of $1.95 to $2.15.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial were expecting earnings of 51 cents for the quarter and $1.99 for the full year.

The company cited a slowdown in sales and pricing pressure in both its free-standing insert business and neighborhood-specific advertising. The company also said a suspension of its stock buyback program would effect earnings per share.

Accredited Home Lenders Assumed Aames Financial’s Wholesale Operations Ahead of Merger

Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (LEND), a mortgage company specializing in non-prime residential mortgage loans, announced today that it would absorb the wholesale operations of Aames Investment Corporation (AIC) under an agreement dated June 23, 2006. This move is designed to reduce employee attrition and maximize the expected synergies from the combination of the Accredited and Aames wholesale operations that would otherwise occur as part of the merger of Accredited and Aames contemplated to occur in the third quarter of 2006.

Conoco Phillips (COP) is open to new deals. Among them - a stake in a natural gas pipeline.
Sierra Health (SIE) got some more credit. At a lower rate.

American International Pasta (PLB) still likes Sysco, but wants to see other distributors. But if they don’t file their 10K by the end of the year, they could be delisted.

Mario Gabelli’s Broken Legacy (GBL)

Birinyi thinks it may be time to look at the homebuilders again. (NVR, OHB, TOL)

Copper surplus? (FCX - Annual Report)

If Microsoft revolutionizes business communications, Plantronics (PLT) will be there to help.

Dade Behring (DADE) is changing auditors.

Brazil’s Gerdau (GGB) bought Peru’s Siderperu.

Luxury soup (CPB).

Gold bugs think the Fed is too soft on inflation. (GG, GLG)

Lakeland Industries (LAKE) announced a largely pointless stock dividend.

Par Pharmaceuticals (PRX) to manufacture generic version of high blood pressure treatment Norvasc starting in late 2007.

UT Starcom (UTSI) filed its previously delayed reports.

Libbey (LBY) sets table for Mexican dinner.

Heineken starts up Indian JV.

Helix (HELX) closed the buyout of Remington Oil and Gas.

Stifel Nicolaus likes the beer stocks.