When I first became an analyst, my boss was fond of saying he’d rather have luck than brains. There are so many times, as an investor, when I have considered the understated wisdom of those words. The whole field of behavioral finance is devoted to the tricks our brains like to play on us, and there are certainly plenty of examples of cases where investors simply became too smart for their own good.

I had a little case of luck last week, when I was going to write puts on either Ceradyne (CRDN) or Verizon (VZ - Annual Report), having the capital available for only one of the trades. I chose Verizon primarily out of luck, and it has rallied nicely from the intra-day lows near which I wrote my puts, making it quite unlikely that they will be exercised against me. Meanwhile, Ceradyne lowered guidance Tuesday and lost more than 25% of its market value.

Although I have often expressed the benefits of a put-write strategy (lowering the effective price of stocks you were willing to buy anyway, or collecting a more generous yield if the stock doesn’t fall below the strike price) I thought an analysis of the Ceradyne case would offer a good illustration of the risks – and why I like the strategy even when those risks are considered.

First of all, the 25% decline in Ceradyne was going to knock put sellers or long investors regardless of any stop-loss or other strategies commonly described as “risk reduction” tools. In fact, it nicely illustrates the criticisms of the Black-Scholes option pricing model so recently discussed in Conde Nast Portfolio. Namely, the big event risks are underestimated. Only having bought puts at a lower exercise price (and thus eroding the potential returns) would have offered some protection against the sudden price drop. 

That said, does the exposure to sudden price drops invalidate the strategy? I don’t think it does, provided investors focus on the stocks that they understand and are willing to be long anyway. In fact, when I looked at the put-write on Ceradyne in December I pretty much nailed the potential risks.

“Let’s say you write a January $45 put and get your $1.60 premium. In January, the stock trades at $44 and you end up with it, at a net cost of $43.40. You immediately sell a February $45 call option for something like $1.25, bringing your net investment down to $42.15.

“Then the company announces that earnings will only be $3 a share in 2008, and the stock drops to $30. You’re down $12.15, or 27% of the money you put at risk. So much for low risk.

“On the other hand, if you compare the same transactions to buying the stocks today for $48.30 you would be $6.15 ahead of the game if you used the option strategy. So, while the risks are real, I still consider the strategy to have less risk than either owning or shorting Ceradyne outright.”

Whether simply buying a stock, or using a put-write strategy, knowing the risks is imperative. I always try to look at a disaster scenario (like the one I illustrated for Ceradyne) that is outside the limits of what most investors consider. Usually these disasters don’t occur, but they happen more often than investors like to admit. Planning for them – and mitigating them when possible – should pay off over time.

Disclosures: William Trent has written put options against the shares of Verizon (VZ - Annual Report).

photo credit: lucasreddinger

This article is a reprint of my February 22, 2008 RealMoney column

Forget the debate over whether telecom is a buy or sell. Make money being indifferent.

The decisions by Verizon (VZ - Annual Report) and AT&T (T - Annual Report) to offer unlimited wireless plans for $100 has launched a furious debate at RealMoney over whether the move is the right thing or the wrong thing to do. I see both sides of the story, and if anything lean toward the side of the bulls. But while the bulls and bears hash things out, I think investors can make money by being neutral.

To sum up the arguments, on the bearish side Tero Kuittinnen notes that “The AT&T and Verizon growth stories rest largely on their mobile service, and the mobile service growth hinges on mobile data, not voice. Investors are going to be deeply disappointed if Verizon’s mobile data growth keeps cooling down from the still-torrid 53% pace of the fourth quarter of 2007. For Verizon, mobile data revenue still generates just $11 a month out of the overall $51 average revenue per user. The data growth has to continue to run hot, or the overall ARPU will start declining.”

Jim Cramer counters that “the stock can trade back up toward the high $30’s over the coming quarters as the market comes to realize that these wireless price cuts are a savvy move to take market share from Sprint Nextel (S - Annual Report), which appears to be in serious trouble.”

In the short term, I’m making absolutely no forecast about the effects of the wireless pricing cut, the effects of a potential recession, or the stock price. But there are a few facts to consider that explain my lean toward the bull side.

First, this isn’t the first time in recent memory that there has been a competitive telecom environment. Since the 1996 telecom act, everybody from CLECs to independent wireless operators to cable and long distance companies has taken their shots at the big integrated telecom firms. Several of those categories of competitors no longer exist in any meaningful fashion. So, while it’s true that the pricing power in telecom may not remain at the high levels enjoyed of late, a competitive environment is nothing these companies haven’t seen before.

Second, Verizon is going to continue churning out massive amounts of cash. Its operating cash flows have been roughly $20 billion or more each year this century, and even the dual wireless/FIOS buildouts have required no more than $17.5 billion in capital expenditures. The $5.8 billion in free cash flow generated over the last 12 months leaves more than enough to pay the handsome 5.1% dividend yield that has attracted Cramer’s attention.

Finally, Verizon is getting close to massive technical support at $30. The only time this stock has traded with a $2-handle is for a couple of months in 2002 around the trough of the telecom bust.

Still, I promised that investors could make money in this name without being bullish, and those who know me probably realize I am talking about writing options. I just wrote March $32.50 put options for $0.95. If the stock stays above that level, I collect a 2.9% yield in the next month. Given that Treasuries pay less than that for one year, getting it in one month simply by being willing to buy a utility-like cash flow stream seems like easy money to me.

If the stock continues to slide, I’ll get an effective purchase price of $31.55, from which my dividend yield will be 5.5%, taxed at a more efficient rate than the smaller Treasury yield. Alternatively, I could turn right around and write covered calls to reduce my exposure still further. Those who currently own the stock could also consider covered call writing to enhance their yield.

Yet another useful option strategy here relates to Cramer’s plan to scale into Verizon over time, potentially bringing his initial 1,000 shares up to 4,000 or 5,000. Why not write some puts with staggered dates to accomplish that? Again, using the $32.50 puts, the following table shows how this could work.

Scaling Into Verizon by Writing Puts

Sources: Option quotes obtained from Fidelity Investments at time of writing

Assuming all the options get exercised against him, Cramer would achieve an average purchase price of $31.11 per share, scaling in over time at progressively lower effective entry prices. If the stock stays right where it is, or goes up, he collects a total of $8.35 in option premiums for the shares he never buys.

To me, that sounds like a winning strategy.

Disclosures: William Trent has written put options against the shares of Verizon (VZ - Annual Report)

My RealMoney article from December 7, 2007:

CSG Systems (CSGS) is a leading provider of customer care and billing services for cable operators, including Comcast (CMCSA), Echostar (DISH - Annual Report), and Time Warner Cable (TWC). Since July, when the company announced in a shortfall in cash flow from operations, the shares are down more than a third. The current price may be a good opportunity for investors to buy a stable cash flow generator.

The cash flow shortfall in the second quarter was “due to unexpected changes in certain operating assets and liabilities at quarter end” as was largely made up in the third quarter. But don’t get me wrong - there are plenty of good reasons to explain the recent share price decline.

Let’s start with customers - the relationship with Comcast has been touchy at times, stemming from lawsuits related to Comcast’s 2002 acquisition of AT&T (AT&T’s former cable assets). That relationship seems stable now, but things could always get dicey again.

Then there is all the talk about Echostar being taken over. A merger with a company like AT&T (T - Annual Report) that does not use CSG’s services could mean CSG loses its number two client.

Next, even without any mergers and acquisitions activity going on CSG stands to lose when its customers have fewer bills to send out. Increased competition from telephone companies like AT&T and Verizon (VZ - Annual Report), along with trouble related to the housing market, have led both Echostar and Comcast to cut customer growth estimates recently.

So, suffice to say there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about CSG’s prospects in the near term. Now we have to figure out whether today’s one-third-off sale fully reflects those potential concerns. I think it does.

The Positive Side

If there is one thing to like about CSG Systems, it is that the earnings are predictable. Consider the last 12 quarters, which I charted below.

Source: Zacks Research Wizard

The knock against predictability, of course, is that the earnings are going nowhere. They have been stuck in neutral at $14-$16 million per quarter for much of the last three years. On the other hand, the company generates tons of cash - $105 million worth of free cash flow (cash from operations less capital expenditures) over the last 12 months.

And it uses most of that cash flow to buy back stock. In the third quarter of 2007 there were 17.5% fewer shares than there were in the same quarter last year. As a result, the earnings per share are far from stagnant. In fact, the last 12 months of EPS were 16.1% higher than the preceding 12 months.

Now that the share price has come down, the buybacks are having a bigger impact than ever. At the current pace, the company could take itself private within six years.

Free Cash Flow Yield

With $95 million in free cash flow and a current enterprise value of $638 million, CSG is sporting a free cash flow yield of more than 16%. Even if the $65 million they spent on acquisitions this year is deducted, the free cash flow yield would still be a healthy 6.2%, offering a solid risk premium over Treasuries.

With that kind of risk premium, investors look to be well compensated for the risks I outlined.

Zacks Investment Research has provided Stock Market Beat with a complimentary trial subscription to Research Wizard.

Originally published at RealMoney on September 19, 2007.

Tony Crescenzi says the latest PPI report should be tossed because the benign headline reading will almost certainly be reversed in the months ahead owing to the surge in energy costs that has occurred of late. I say not so fast! If prices are rising, that means some companies out there are likely to see better profits. Before tossing out the report, I’m betting we can figure out who a few of them will be.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which prepares the PPI report, provides detailed information on an industry basis. The problem is figuring out how to find it on their web site. Starting at the PPI home page, I scroll down to the headline that says “Get Detailed PPI Statistics” then click on Industry Data. You can then pick out which industries you want to see (I pick ‘em all) and click “Retrieve Data.” Then I select “More Formatting Options” and click on the boxes for 12-month percent change, all years, and include graphs. Once I hit “retrieve data” again I have what I’m looking for - graphs that make it easy to tell which industries are gaining or losing their pricing power.

First up is the fruit and vegetable canning industry. At 5.3% year/year inflation, pricing is clearly better than normal. It is down from a recent peak but still looks to be generally in a rising trend.

Possible plays on this industry include can makers such as Ball Corp. (BLL), Crown Holdings CCK - Annual Report), or Silgan (SLGN - Annual Report). Or you can go to the food processors such as Campbell Soup (CPB), Del Monte (DLM - Annual Report), Hain Celestial (HAIN), or HJ Heinz (HNZ).

Looking better still are industrial valves, up 9.3% year/year against tough comparisons.

Some of the industrial valve makers include Flowserve (FLS), Crane (CR) and Curtiss Wright (CW - Annual Report).

But enough with boring “old” industries. How about tech? It is seldom that tech prices actually increase, but sometimes they decline at a slower than usual pace, which can provide a similar opportunity. That may be the case right now with computer storage devices.

Last month’s 2.9% decline from last year was the smallest price drop on record for this industry, and the ongoing consolidation may help the trend continue. Plenty of ways to play this one, including Brocade (BRCD), EMC (EMC - Annual Report), Iomega (IOM), Hutchinson (HTCH), Quantum (QTM), Sandisk (SNDK - Annual Report), Seagate (STX - Annual Report), and Western Digital (WDC).

By contrast, semiconductors are experiencing the worst pricing on record.

That could be the signal for a contrarian play (I happen to think the worst will soon be over for semiconductors) or possibly just an excuse to avoid the group for a while.

The PPI clued me in to the opportunity in railroads a year before Buffett bought in. I hestitate to bet against him, but it looks like the industry’s price increases have ground to a halt.

If you have the guts, I’d count this as bad news for Burlington Northern (BNI), CSX Corp. (CSX), Norfolk Southern (NSC), and Union Pacific (UNP).

Finally, Wired Telecommunications saw pricing decline for years after the 1996 Telecom Act, but recent consolidation is allowing them to raise prices again.

Winners here would be CenturyTel (CTL), AT&T (T - Annual Report), Verizon (VZ - Annual Report) and Embarq (EQ).

By my count, that is 26 potential stock tips, all courtesy of the U.S. government. I’ll take that over tossing the report any day.

Disclosure: Long Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH).

After the 1996 Telecom Act, the pricing environment for voice calls - particularly for landline phones, got ugly. Between wireless substitution, competition from cable and competition from other sources such as Skype, the price to make a voice call kept dropping. Until recently.

The ability to raise prices on wired telecom services has done wonders for the stock prices of wired carriers such as AT&T (T - Annual Report), Verizon (VZ - Annual Report), Qwest (Q) and CenturyTel (CTL). But can it continue? For clues I turned to the recent conference calls.

Verizon attributes some pricing gains to its broadband bundle.

Increases in broadband and video revenue, more bundled customers, as well as certain strategic pricing changes all helped drive consumer retail ARPU up $5.64 or nearly 11% year over year. The 3.3% sequential growth in ARPU is primarily broadband and video-related. In Texas the retail ARPU growth was in excess of 20%, and there are several other large markets with double-digit growth including New York, New Jersey and Virginia. We continue to see growth and retention opportunities in the retail consumer market, particularly as we introduced new bundles, many of which will include wireless.

(Excerpt from full VZ conference call transcript)
No wonder they are spending so much on their FiOS buildout.

Qwest is benefiting from having fewer competitors around.

Dick Notebaert

Yeah. Jonathan that’s the model that we have to follow, because we proven we can do the productivity; we have to execute against the marketing opportunity, we have got less competitors, new products. So, yeah, that’s the model that we are executing against. So, yes, we would expect to see margin expansion as we execute and if we execute, which we’ve already got the sales and we just got convert into revenues.

(Excerpt from full Q conference call transcript)

But AT&T sees more cable competition on the horizon.

In small and medium business, the situation there really in the last several quarters in terms of the results and the trends we’re seeing hasn’t changed dramatically. We are continuing to see growth in both voice and data in small and medium business and in our regional business overall. We are continuing to see access line gains and we are seeing relatively low churn rates for both access lines and broadband services.

Where we do have competitive losses and maybe a good way to say this would be if you look at our access line disconnects in the regional business space, most of them are related to technology migration. Only about 30% of access line disconnects are competitive disconnects. In terms of cable competition up to this point of that 30%, the disconnects that are cable related are very small, four to five percentage points of that 30. So we are not seeing a lot in the market at this point, other than probably from Cox who has been in the market for some time. But I do expect over this next year we’ll see more activity as Comcast and Time Warner both begin to roll out their plans.

Again, I think where we will see them will tend to be more in the lower end of the small/medium business space, kind of 10 lines and under, maybe even four lines and under.

Again, so far we are not seeing much impact there. In fact, our small/medium business revenue growth was in the mid 6% range this quarter, about the same as last quarter.

(Excerpt from full T conference call transcript)

As does CenturyTel.

Gaurav Jaitly - UBS

It’s Gaurav Jaitly, UBS. Couple of questions. First, yesterday Citizens mentioned on their call that they were seeing some aggressive promotions in their, rest of the [ph] markets from Charter. Just curious given your relatively large overlap at Charter, if you saw the same… we saw access lines kind of pick up a little bit to 5.2% from just in the 5% in the first quarter.

And then secondly, just wondering if you had any thoughts on the upcoming 700 MHz auctions, if you would consider joining a coalition or just bidding on your own, that would be great, thanks.

Glen F. Post III - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Gaurav, we have seen Charter pick up the promotions in recent weeks and months. And this did have a slight impact because we have access line losses, we do have about 25% overlap with Charter today and… 23% I think overlap with Charter today. And it’s, they’ve been very aggressive, but we don’t see unusual impact. It will be some tough competition, increased competition in some of those areas, but we don’t expect major impacts right now. But they are being more aggressive than they have in the past.

(Excerpt from full CTL conference call transcript)

For investors, it may pay to stick with the companies that are seeing less pressure from competition. In particular, Verizon has taken the biggest steps to stave off future competition rather than merely benefiting from the current lull.

It is hard to write about Qualcomm (QCOM) without some mention of the enemies it has made over the years. The company’s success, as well as the ire of its competitors, has stemmed from its strong patent portfolio - from which it has extracted hefty (some say unfair) royalties.

With the stock down about 20% on the heels of the current dispute, I thought it a timely time to wrap up what some of the interested parties have been saying. I’ll start with Nokia (NOK).

Rick Simonson

And Tim, in terms of the impact on royalties in the quarter, when you look at our WCDMA royalty provisions, it had some positive impact on the gross margin, but there are far many more important drivers for the sequential gross margin improvement in Q2.

The success of the total product portfolio and particularly driven by having very desirable hit products in every part of the range, high end, low end, midrange, a little bit of the slightly moderated price competition that Olli-Pekka just mentioned would be the second thing that I would call out. Our favorable product mix with M and ES growing faster than MP, thirdly. And fourth, the overall good cost management.

In other words, the benefit that we got in the COGS. Those four things far swamp the very small incremental benefit from the gross margin related to our total WCDMA royalty provisions. In other words, we would be writing the exact same story of this quarter without even that small incremental benefit.

Tim Long - Banc of America Securities

So we can assume that provision is lower than what was actually was being paid previous percentage rate but it’s lower than what was being paid previously?

Rick Simonson

Well, again as we talked before, we necessarily have to be somewhere in between there because we feel strongly in our position that the rates under the old agreement with the one party, QUALCOMM are not correct and we wouldn’t be spending the time on this debate if in fact we felt that we were accruing at the same rate. But it is, to repeat as we said before, somewhere in between those two.

(Excerpt from full NOK conference call transcript)

Next up is Broadcom (BRCM - Annual Report).

Finally, as we stated numerous times in the past, we stand ready to negotiate with QUALCOMM or any other market participant to seek a commercial solution as we’ve done today with Verizon.

With respect to Broadcom’s current litigation proceeding against QUALCOMM things are going very well. Our goals remain simple and two-fold. One is to gain proper recognition of the value of our IP, and the second is to achieve a level of competitive playing field.

At this time QUALCOMM has been found to infringe four of our patents, three of them willfully in two different forms. We also have additional patents that have not yet been addressed to trial. Please note that QUALCOMM has either lost or dropped all claims against Broadcom. There has not been any movement in our discussions with QUALCOMM, as it appears that they have bet their future and end customers’ upcoming product launches on their political lobbying skills.

(Excerpt from full BRCM conference call transcript)

The patent issues also affect Qualcomm’s customers such as Sprint Nextel (S - Annual Report).

We continue to explore our options to ensure our customers have the latest handsets. We continue to import handsets with the technology solution designed by Qualcomm. Qualcomm believes this workaround does not fall within the ITC order. We’ve been testing the solution for several months and there are no impacts on the customer experience.

We are also considering a number of other alternative resolutions to this dispute, including encouraging the two parties to reach resolution.

(Excerpt from full S conference call transcript)

As noted above, Verizon (VZ - Annual Report) also uses the technology but has come to a commercial deal with Broadcom. So what does Qualcomm have to say about all this?

Obviously, we are disappointed with the rulings on behalf of Broadcom both in the Santa Ana case and in front of the ITC. We continue to believe that the rulings are wrong and are pursuing all avenues to reverse and to mitigate the effects of these rulings, including working with our partners who may obtain a license from Broadcom. We’ve been unable to come to agreement ourselves with Broadcom because they’ve insisted that a comprehensive settlement includes the ability for it’s customers to obtain royalty free rights through significant portions of our patent portfolio which would have a material impact on our licensing business. This business is funded on R&D and innovations that we have transferred to are approximately 140 licensees. We remain committed to defend our business model and the benefits they provide to wireless industry. Unfortunately given the threat of injunctions against certain of our products, the next few months represent a crucial litigation time-frame and we can’t predict the outcomes at this time….
With respect to the Nokia arbitration, we have now arrived at a process for selecting arbitrators and that process is underway and we expect to have the arbitration panel in place in fairly short order. And then once the panel is in place we think that the procedure will start moving forward, subsequently the panel will set a schedule and of course we will be pushing for a pretty aggressive schedule. I suspect Nokia will be pushing for ‘08 schedule and we won’t know what kind of schedule we get obviously until the arbitrators order, but that would be the next step.

(Excerpt from full QCOM conference call transcript)

Supposedly it was Sun Tzu who counseled “keep your friends close and your enemies closer.” Qualcomm currently seems fairly far from both.

Verizon Communications (VZ - Annual Report) reported reported earnings:

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Annual Report) today reported strong, profitable first-quarter 2007 revenue growth, supported by industry-leading retail customer growth at Verizon Wireless and strong sales of broadband services, including video. Verizon reported first-quarter 2007 earnings of $1.5 billion, or 51 cents in fully diluted earnings per share [EPS]. This compares with EPS of 56 cents in the first quarter 2006 - which includes operations that Verizon has since divested.

Verizon’s first-quarter 2007 diluted EPS before discontinued operations was 51 cents, or 54 cents per share on an adjusted basis (before special items, non-GAAP), a 17.4 percent increase from 46 cents per share in the first quarter 2006. In total, on an adjusted basis (non-GAAP), Verizon’s first-quarter 2007 earnings were $1.6 billion, or 56 cents in EPS, compared with 60 cents in EPS in the first quarter 2006, which included operations that Verizon has since divested. Special item adjustments in the first quarter 2007 included an extraordinary loss of 5 cents in EPS due to the impact of the Venezuelan government’s nationalization of telecommunications services.

Analysts had been expecting the company to earn $0.53 on $2.5 billion in sales. In our preview of the earnings, we said there was “possible upside to sales.” We were right, as sales came in at $22.6 billion without adjusting for the discontinued operations. According to the company:

Revenues for Verizon Telecom’s consumer market decreased by 3.5 percent, to $4.2 billion, comparing first quarter 2007 with first quarter 2006. However, in legacy Verizon markets, consumer revenues reversed recent
year-over-year declines. (Legacy Verizon consumer markets exclude former MCI consumer markets - where Verizon’s strategic focus has led to expected declines.)

We saw that coming as well. Back in January we noticed that telecom pricing was going through the roof, and said “Which leads us to ask: why, again, is Verizon getting rid of its lines?”

All in all, these days are the best big telecom has seen since the bubble burst. We think estimates have not yet caught up to this new reality, which could lead to further positive surprises in future quarters if we are right.

The Economic Calendar has three potentially important events this week:

• Personal Income and Outlays on Monday (consensus 0.6% income, 0.5% spending)
• ISM Manufacturing on Tuesday (consensus 51)
• The Employment Situation on Friday (consensus 100,000 jobs added, 4.5% unemployment)

Earnings season continues in full force.

Monday

• Verizon (VZ - Annual Report) - possible upside to sales

Tuesday

• Plantronics (PLT) - anyone’s guess, though our long position gives away our own guess

Wednesday

• Cognizant (CTSH) - one of these days the growth will hit a wall, but probably not this day
• Garmin (GRMN - Annual Report) - shouldn’t need a big surprise to move the stock from this level
• Itron (ITRI) - risk to estimates in both directions due to Actaris acquisition
• Sprint (S - Annual Report) - the worst may be over here
• Symantec (SYMC) - Based on MFE and VDSL should have a big quarter

Thursday

• Ansys (ANSS) - Dassault beat big, and we like Ansys better
• QLogic (QLGC) - too risky for our tastes
• Starbucks (SBUX) - probably no surprise, but risk probably to the downside when they are making this kind of move

Disclosure: Long PLT and ITRI

Disclosure: Author is long Starbucks (SBUX) at time of publication.

Here’s the rumor. Verizon to Become Largest National Carrier by Swallowing Alltel (Mobile Magazine):

The CDMA landscape in the United States may be set for a pretty significant change as Verizon Wireless is very interested in buying Alltel, effectively making it the largest national cellular phone carrier based on number of subscribers. If the merger goes through and is approved, the Verizon-Alltel conglomerate would “tower over Cingular by about 10 million” customers.

Here are the facts:

• The two companies already have a joint roaming agreement giving them favorable terms to allow their customers seamless service
• Any deal would have to get past Verizon’s wireless partner Vodafone
• Verizon has been working so hard to get liabilities off its balance sheet it is hard to imagine them putting new ones on
• However, given Alltel’s recent spin-off of its landline business it seems they want to do something, and the logical partners are CDMA carriers Verizon and Sprint/Nextel
• Verizon can’t seem to let AT&T make a deal without doing one of its own, and it is now Verizon’s turn

Do these add up to a deal? They shouldn’t, but they certainly might.

When Verizon (VZ - Annual Report) announced a deal to swap some of its access lines for shares of FairPoint (FRP), we wondered if investors were getting a fair shake. At $1,800 per access line, the deal appears to be in line with recent transactions, and serves to take another slug of debt off Verizon’s balance sheet without incurring taxes for shareholders. However, small shareholders could come out of the deal with a handful of FairPoint shares worth little more than the commissions that would be incurred in selling them.

Raymond James is out with an excellent analysis of the deal and its implications for additional similar deals. According to Raymond James:

The FairPoint deal offered a few advantages for both parties. By diversifying into a larger base of customers and lowering its FCF payout ratio, while divesting its wireless minority partnership, we believe FairPoint shed some risk it had previously borne, while expanding its presence in one of its largest states (Maine). For Verizon, however, it would appear to us to be the best possible offer it could have structured. Had the company sold the property for cash (presumably at a multiple higher than the 6.3x it sold to FairPoint), then paid taxes, we believe Verizon would have netted a multiple below 6x. We believe the assets are close to if not fully depreciated, thus requiring a multiple higher than 7.5x which does not appear rational or likely for these properties. Thus, a spin out to FairPoint appears to be the best option for Verizon to maximize value, even if the multiple appears a bit low. A third option, would have been for the company to spin the properties out to shareholders as a new company, but that would have destroyed value in the process as a management team and company infrastructure would have to be created, leaving Verizon’s shareholders with an asset likely worth less than 6.3x. Again, this makes the announced structure appear to be the rational choice, in our opinion.

Why Smaller ILECs will be Advantaged in These Sales. We believe the apparent tax adverse nature of Verizon will lend itself to doing (or at least attempting to re-produce) a FairPoint-type deal in order to unload additional former GTE lines….

We do not believe these would be large enough for the usual access line aggregators due to equity limitations, leaving an interesting group of suitors, such as Iowa Telecom, Consolidated, Alaska Communications Systems, and Cincinnati Bell.

The Raymond James research piece is well worth reading, as it offers a concise summary of how the deal is structured and why it limits the pool of potential acquirors.