My latest column is up at RealMoney.

Chart Industries (GTLS) is a leading independent global manufacturer of highly engineered equipment used in the production, storage and end-use of hydrocarbon and industrial gases. As an infrastructure supplier to the energy industry, Chart lies at the intersection of two major investment themes that I think will continue to work for some time.

The advertising bombardment relating to T. Boone Pickens’ “Pickens Plan” can’t hurt Chart. A central component of the plan is to increase the use of natural gas in transportation.

For the Pickens Plan to work, money will have to be spent building out an infrastructure to transport the gas from remote areas to those where it is needed. Enter Chart, which supplies engineered equipment used throughout the global liquid-gas supply chain.

While the Pickens Plan ads may increase awareness of natural gas, Chart has been doing fine without it. Sales grew 24% in 2007, but backlog grew at twice that rate. The current backlog amounts to more than 60% of projected 2008 sales, offering high visibility.

What’s more, demand continues to rise. In a recent note, Lehman Brothers estimated that the expansion plans of a single customer (Energy World Corporation) could mean more than $250 million in additional orders for Chart.

For a company that looks like it can generate 20% annual growth, I don’t really require the free-cash-flow yield to be higher than the 3.2% return on five-year Treasury bills. The growth alone is sufficient reward for the risks involved.

Seen another way, the average free-cash-flow yield in the S&P 1500 Supercomposite is about 3.1%, and the average growth forecast is 14%. With Chart, you get higher growth at a lower valuation.

If Chart can grow its cash flow 20% over the next year and increase its valuation so that the free-cash-flow yield matches the Treasury yield, the stock could more than double in that time. That would make for a (stock) chart I could appreciate.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

According to the CNBC.com special report, Powering the Planet, which is the “biggest” U.S. geothermal player?

The biggest US players are firms in which geothermal is only a portion of their business. This includes Chevron (CVX) b

CHEVRON CORP CVX 87.36  -2.06  -2.3%

NYSE

ut also Calpine (CPN) and Raser Technologies (RZ).

In other words, “all of the above.”

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

With the stock market flirting with “official” bear market territory, I realized I hadn’t written a bearish piece in a couple of months. Not wanting to buck the trend any longer, I decided to look through the models I follow to see which stocks might be on the pricey side. I think I found one in ACI Worldwide (ACIW) .

ACI develops, markets, installs and supports a broad line of software products and services primarily focused on facilitating electronic payments. The company’s products and services compete with offerings by Fiserv (FISV - Annual Report) , Fidelity National Information Systems (FIS) , S1 Corporation (SONE) , Metavante (MV) , Euronet (EEFT) , Fair Isaac (FIC) , Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) .

About the only argument one can make in favor of a long position is that the stock has come down a lot — nearly 50% from last July’s peak. Unfortunately, at last July’s peak it had already come down a lot from the prior year’s peak. It is amazing to me that a stock performing so poorly can still be valued as highly as it is. For now, I’m not counting on a reversal in price momentum.

For those of ACI Worldwide’s peers that have earnings on which to base a P/E multiple, the average P/E is about 16. At 16 times the 58-cent current 2009 consensus estimate for ACI Worldwide, the stock would trade at just $9.28 — 46% below the current level. Even at the 21 times multiple S1 enjoys, the downside could be 30%. And those prices assume the company will actually earn what analysts believe it will. As noted earlier, that has not been a safe bet of late.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

Ikon Office Solutions (IKN) was recently upgraded to buy by TheStreet.com Ratings, and as I look at the fundamentals, it isn’t hard to see why.

As the world’s largest independent channel for document management systems and services, Ikon enables customers worldwide to improve document workflow and increase efficiency. Ikon integrates best-in-class copiers, printers and multifunction product technologies from manufacturers such as Canon (CAJ) , Ricoh, Konica Minolta and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - Annual Report) with document management software from companies such as Captaris (CAPA) , Kofax, eCopy, Electronics for Imaging (EFII) , EMC Documentum (EMC - Annual Report) and others.

Ikon is trading at just 0.78 times book value, well below the industry average of 1.39 times. Although much of that book value is represented by intangible assets, the same can be said of many companies in the industry. Xerox (XRX) , for example, has nearly half of its book value represented by goodwill. For Pitney Bowes (PBI) , it is more than 100%.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Ikon to grow 12% annually over the next three to five years. This estimate is exactly in line with the average growth rate expected for the industry. I don’t see why a stock growing at the same rate as the industry should trade at half the industry’s price/book multiple — especially when its free cash flow is so strong. I believe the valuation should expand to the industry average. If the price/book multiple can expand to the industry average over the next five years, then even if the company only manages to grow at the 8.6% rate forecast by the Street’s most conservative analysts, the total return could exceed 20% annually.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

William Trent currently has a short position in put options related to Office Depot (ODP).

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

I usually want a stock to score highly in four out of five categories before giving it much consideration: earnings momentum, earnings quality, price momentum, free cash flow and return potential.

This week, only three stocks went four for five, and I’ve talked about them all before: W&T Offshore (WTI) , Pitney Bowes (PBI) and Rent-a-Center (RCII) . As I look for new investment ideas, I’m left with three options, each of which has significant drawbacks.

1. Go short
2. Change strategy
3. Stay on the sidelines

I seldom short stocks, but I’ll probably try to scratch out some extra gains by writing covered calls on stocks like Ansys (ANSS) that I like long-term, but that look a little stretched in the near term. I also will likely leave a little cash standing by to put to work when conditions are more favorable. But like many investors, I generally plan to stay long and close to fully invested. In markets like this one, that means shifting gears a little bit.

Without straying too far from my comfort zone, I’m considering letting my winners ride (and possibly paying up for those like WTI that meet my criteria but have seen strong rallies), searching for deep value plays, and possibly even making a speculative play or two.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, William Trent has a covered call position in Ansys (ANSS) and has written put options against the shares of NutriSystem (NTRI).

CNBC Stock Blog: Jason Votruba likes small-cap energy. What Web Extra stock(s) did he recommend to CNBC.com?

Web Extras for CNBC.com Readers:

Votruba also likes Woodward Governor (WGOV) and Unit Corporation (UNT).

In the models I follow, Woodward Governor does pretty well.  It scores among the best for earnings momentum, earnings quality and price momentum. However, its return potential is among the worst.

Unit has a similar profile, though the breakdown differs. It merits high rankings for earnings momentum, price momentum and return potential but poorly for free cash flow.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

Postal metering market leader Pitney Bowes’ (PBI) stock fell off a cliff last year after missing earnings. However, things do not appear to be getting worse. On the latest conference call, management said the financial services sector is still weak but not “significantly different than what our plan was.” The U.S. postal rate increase is nearing its anniversary and should have minimal impact after that, and the company is “nearing the conclusion of our evaluation of the strategic options for U.S. Management Services and we expect to make a statement by the end of the second quarter.”

Over the last 12 months, Pitney Bowes has generated $834 million in free cash flow (cash from operating activities less capital expenditures.) That represents a very solid 11.2% free cash flow yield on the $7.44 billion market capitalization, a 7.8% premium to the current yield on five-year Treasuries.

With a risk premium that high, I am not especially concerned about growth and could even accept modest declines in cash flow. However, declines are not expected. The lowest estimate on Wall Street calls for 6.1% annual growth over the next three to five years, and the consensus estimate is 12%.

Assuming earnings estimates are on target, simple reversion to the five-year average P/E could justify a $51 price (42% above current levels) within 12-18 months. Longer term, the shares could justify a $67 price within five years based on the lowest growth estimate and an 8% terminal free cash flow yield.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

On May 28, homeland security analyst Brian Ruttenbur praised which firm for its fingerprint-verification tech?

Ruttenbur’s first pick among homeland security companies is AuthenTec (AUTH), a maker of fingerptint-authentication sensors .

“They’re growing roughly 45-50 percent a year, and they’re going on laptops and cell phones,” he said. “You’ll see the first cell phones [with fingerprint sensors] in the U.S. this year.”

Authentec doesn’t show up on my screens because it doesn’t make any money yet.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article. 

What “Web Extra” Internet stock did Darren Chervitz recommend exclusively for CNBC Stock Blog readers?

Chervitz also offered a bonus selection for CNBC.com — not revealed on TV.

He likes Shutterfly (SFLY) the leading online photo service.  The company does a brisk business in personalized products like scrapbooks, beverage mugs, and calendars.  It’s expected to fulfill more than eight million orders this year.  He also notes there has been some insider buying by management in the last week.

I like Shutterfly’s service, but it doesn’t pass my initial screens so I don’t have much to say about it.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

TTM Technologies (TTMI) manufactures printed circuit boards for the high-end commercial and aerospace/defense markets. The company focuses on a “quick-turn” model that can provide custom-fabricated PCBs to customers within as little as 24 hours. This strategy allows TTM to charge a premium for quick-turn services (which account for 15% of total revenue) and insulates TTM from the extreme cyclicality faced by most electronics manufacturing services (EMS) providers. In the last 10 years, the company reported just one year of net losses (2002).

TTM’s largest original equipment manufacturer customers in 2007 were Cisco (CSCO) , Honeywell (HON) , Juniper Networks (JNPR) , Northrop Grumman (NOC - Annual Report) and Raytheon (RTN) ; these OEMs accounted for a combined 24% of total sales. More than half of total sales were to EMS providers including my favorite, Celestica (CLS - Annual Report) , as well as Flextronics (FLEX) , Jabil (JBL) and Plexus (PLXS) . The diversity of customers and end markets should shield the company from short-term market share fluctuations among customers.

Here’s how the company fares in the Stock Market Beat models:

• Earnings momentum – positive
• Earnings quality – positive
• Price momentum – positive
• Free cash flow – positive
• Return potential – neutral

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.