The following is a reprint of my January 18, 2007 RealMoney column.

Oracle’s (ORCL - Annual Report) agreement to meet BEA Systems (BEAS) half-way on price was hailed by InfoWeek as making Oracle a middleware powerhouse. “Among other things, BEA will add to Oracle its WebLogic and AquaLogic SOA and BPM tools, as well as its Tuxedo transaction processing monitoring software. BEA’s Java Virtual Machine technology also could push Oracle deeper into the hot market for virtualization software,” said the article.

Oracle has been leading the way in software industry consolidation, and this deal is another step in the process. When SAP (SAP - Annual Report) announced in October that they would be buying Business Objects (BOBJ), I hoped they were following Oracle’s lead. It is better business for SAP to integrate its software with that of Business Objects than to force its customers to do the integration.

In the past, there were just too many different application software vendors. The excess made competition stiffer than it needed to be and made it difficult for customers to integrate the different products. Oracle figured out that customers would be willing to accept the reduced competition in favor of reduced complexity.

Furthermore, software companies generate so much cash that these deals quickly pay for themselves. For example, Oracle’s free cash flow (the difference between the cash generated from operations and cash paid for new equipment) before acquisitions was $6.6 billion over the last 12 months. BEA has averaged another $200 million in free cash flow in each of the last three years. The combined companies will generate enough cash in the next 15 months to completely pay for the acquisition, leaving Oracle’s balance sheet as strong as it is today.

In my October article, I said a higher yield and growing free cash flow (at Oracle) compared with a lower, flat one (at SAP) is not much of a choice in my book. Since then, Oracle stock has continued to outperform, being down just 3.4% compared with a 12.6% decline in the S&P 500. SAP is down 9.8%.

An investor who likes the latest deal even more than I, of course, is Carl Icahn. I agree with James Altucher that piggybacking the best activist investors can pay off. Carl Icahn’s portfolio at Stockpickr lists a few other ideas.

Which brings me to the very first article I wrote for RealMoney, in which I said a cash flow upturn could carry Motorola (MOT - Annual Report) upstream. Motorola represents 25% of Icahn’s holdings.

In September I said “If Motorola can get to 2004 free cash flow levels and grow the cash flow a measly 2% per year from there, I estimate the stock would be worth nearly $23, more than 25% above the current price. Management could do that pretty much just by trimming R&D expenses to the 2004 level (which was all they needed to produce the previous hit product anyway).”

The obvious risk, of course, was that cash flow could move in the wrong direction. And it did. Free cash flow over the trailing 12 months ending in September was just $325 million, compared to the 2004 level of $2.5 billion. With the cash flow, the stock has also headed down – 19.1% since I wrote that article, compared with a 6.5% drop in the S%P over the same period.

At the new (lower) enterprise value, the free cash flow yield is just 1.2%. But turnarounds don’t happen in a day, and the CEO change only happened in late November. I don’t expect next week’s earnings report to be anything special, but I also think a return to pre-RAZR cash flow levels

And if it doesn’t, I expect Icahn will have lots to say about it.

The following is a reprint of my December 20, 2007 RealMoney column

I have long complained that Plantronics’ (PLT) increasing exposure to consumers was nothing but trouble. If lower margins and higher advertising costs weren’t enough, the fact that the consumer part of the business was dragging down overall growth was the icing on the cake.

The company was cleaning up its act earlier this year, and the shares rallied as a result. But an earnings miss in October and a downgrade by JPMorgan (JPM - Annual Report) have robbed stockholders of the entire year’s worth of gains.

Once again, the main culprit is the consumer business – specifically the Audio Entertainment Group (AEG), which was formed through the company’s ill-advised purchase of Altec Lansing. Through the six months ended September 30, that segment’s sales were just $43 million – down from $63 million in the same period last year.

In addition to the AEG, the company continues to struggle with more intense competition in the mobile headset business. One reason for the JPMorgan downgrade was that channel checks indicate the company is losing share of Bluetooth headsets to Motorola (MOT - Annual Report) and Nokia (NOK).

Finally, inventories continue to be far too high for my comfort. They have more than doubled over the past couple of years compared to a cumulative sales increase of just 42%. It isn’t the situation one wants to have in a slowing economy, especially in the face of competitive pressure.

The Good News

There are still a few reasons for optimism, though. For one thing, the drop in AEG revenues means it now accounts for less than 12% of the total business. Even if things continue to deteriorate, the incremental impact will be less likely to weigh on the total company.

Furthermore, the company took action to try and prevent such deterioration. Last month they announced a plan to close and/or consolidate a number of facilities as part of a strategic initiative to lower costs. They are also trying to design fresher products that consumers may actually want to buy, but those aren’t expected until next Christmas.

One good thing that could come of the restructuring in the short term would be a disruption in manufacturing. Though this doesn’t sound good at first blush, it would give the company a chance to work down those inventories.

Not a Bad Value

Shares are trading at less than 17x the consensus estimate for the fiscal year ending in March, and just 14x the estimate for March 2009. Unfortunately, given the recent news it is likely both sets of estimates will come down over the next few weeks.

The 9.9% consensus analyst estimate for 5-year growth is less than the company’s sustainable growth rate based on ROE. This means if growth is less than expected the company should be able to compensate by raising the dividend or buying back shares.   On a price to book basis, I think the current multiple of 2.2x could increase. Combined with the growth potential, a valuation expansion could lead to double-digit gains for the stock.

Over the last 12 months Plantronics generated $79 million in free cash flow. If anything, I think this could improve if the company gets a grip on its inventory levels and production capacity. The current FCF/EV yield is fairly attractive at 6.3%, which provides a decent margin of safety while waiting for the growth to materialize.

Although I like the valuation and believe there is cause for optimism, the stock has whipsawed lately due to numerous analyst upgrades and downgrades. Investors willing to take a chance on it would want to pick their price carefully.

Writing puts may also be an effective strategy here. As I write this, the February 25’s are trading at $1.10, offering a potential 4.5% 1-month return on the money risked and an effective purchase price of $23.90 in the event of further market declines.

This article is a reprint of my December 19, 2007 RealMoney column.

An Update of My September 2007 Stock Picks

• My picks in September had winners and losers, but fortunately more of the former
• Closing out my bearish stance on Office Depot (ODP)

I wrote six articles in September that included a bullish or bearish stock opinion, and with three months behind them I thought it was a good time to see how they performed and whether any changes were warranted. On the whole, the picks are playing out more or less as planned.

Motorola

On September 10, I wrote that if Motorola (MOT - Annual Report) could get to 2004 free cash flow levels and grow the cash flow a measly 2% per year from there Motorola shares would be worth nearly $23.

Instead, the cash flow position has continued to deteriorate, contributing to former CEO Ed Zander’s recent ouster. The stock is down 7.2% since the article was written, compared to just a 0.5% decline in the S&P 500.

Still, I think the issues at Motorola can be fixed by bringing the costs – particularly research, development and overhead – in line with the current revenue generation. Alternatively, activist shareholder Carl Icahn could push to break the company up into smaller pieces that might be acquired for a higher total than the current company is currently able to garner. Either way, I’m sticking to my guns on Motorola.

Yahoo

On September 11 I made a bearish call on Yahoo! (YHOO), saying I didn’t believe in the consensus growth estimates and that Yahoo isn’t generating enough cash flow today to make waiting for the recovery worthwhile — at least not for me.

Things haven’t gotten any better since then, and the stock has lost 1.1% – although that is a slightly better performance than the 1.7% loss in the S&P over the same period. I remain bearish on Yahoo.

Office Depot

On September 12, I made a bearish call on Office Depot (ODP), saying “things are likely to get worse before they get better.” Things got worse, and after the company missed earnings and delayed filing its required 10Q the stock has lost 23.3%, compared to a 1.7% decline in the S&P 500.

But I also said “it looks like a stock that will pay off in the end,” and I think the current downturn may have taken the worst out of the stock. I have written put options against the shares (a bet that has lost money) and I think there are more reasons to be positive than negative.

Think the worst of the housing downturn is over? Office Depot’s solid cash flow should make it a safer play than homebuilders or financials. Think small-business tech spending will rise? Office Depot’s P/E is a fraction of Dell’s (DELL).

Office Depot could still have some downside, and I don’t expect a quick recovery. But at current valuations I can no longer justify a bearish position, so I’m closing out that call.

Delta Airlines

On September 17 I made another bearish call, this time against Delta Airlines (DAL). Although the stock looked cheap, after I made some adjustments for earnings quality it looked more like a company recently emerged from bankruptcy (which it is.) The stock has lost 17.7% since that call, compared to a 2.1% decline in the S&P.

Short term, anything can happen as airlines have tons of leverage that can lead to wild swings in profitability in pricing. But long-term I don’t think the major airlines have any better prospects than they did before the previous 10 or so bankruptcies, and I remain bearish.

Apple

I weighed in favor of the bulls for Apple (AAPL) on September 17, and was rewarded with a 32.5% increase in the shares, compared to the 2.1% loss for the S&P 500. The share gains cut Apple’s 3.9% free cash flow yield down to 2.9%, so it isn’t the value it was then.

Still, the cash flow rose 250% from the prior year, and Apple’s market share remains small for most of its product lines. The company continues to make desirable products, and if I have to take a chance on a tech name surviving an economic downturn it might as well be Apple.

Adobe

My last September stock pick was a bullish call on Adobe (ADBE) on the 18^th. The stock always seems to sell off after a major product introduction such as the Creative Suite launch in May of this year. Investors tend to sell on that news after buying up the shares in anticipation of it.

Although the sell-off wasn’t very pronounced this year, the shares did get stuck in neutral. My own call may have been a bit early, as the shares are down 6.3% since the article and the S&P is only down 4.9%.

On their earnings call, the company reiterated their guidance for next year. As the next product cycle moves closer, I think my bullishness will pay off.

Disclosure: William Trent owns shares of Adobe (ADBE) and has written naked put options against the shares of Office Depot (ODP).

William Trent currently has a short position in put options related to Office Depot (ODP).

This article was originally published at RealMoney on September 26, 2007.

My article last week about mining the PPI report for stock ideas was so well received I thought I’d share another of my favorite taxpayer-provided idea generators, the durable goods report. Published by the U.S. Census Bureau, the report has a similar breakdown by industry of durable goods orders, shipments, inventories and backlog.  I came away with 28 potential ideas for further research.

In line with much of the recent economic data, the headline durable goods number was weaker than expected. To quote from the report, “New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $11.3 billion or 4.9 percent to $219.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today…. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down two of the last three months, decreased $3.4 billion or 1.6 percent to $216.7 billion.”

But in this case, I think focusing on the forest means you could miss out on some of the more attractive trees. I gathered the data from the Census Bureau and created charts showing the year/year change in durable goods statistics for a variety of industries hoping to find some areas worth further consideration. Keep in mind, this is an initial screen for idea generation, not a full-fledged analysis of any of the names. You wouldn’t want to buy the stocks listed here without further research. That caveat aside, let’s look at some of the better performing industries.

First up is technology – computers and electronic products. Although 3.3% order growth year/year and essentially flat shipments may not be the type of growth investors typically look for from tech, it is a clear improvement from recent months. Inventories are starting to be drawn down and backlog remains strong.

But there are areas of strength and weakness within tech. Specifically, computers (and related products) themselves are starting to look strong, with backlog headed through the roof and inventories in check.

The fairly obvious stock ideas from this industry include Apple (AAPL), IBM (IBM - Annual Report) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ - Annual Report). If things keep getting better (and the company figures out how to file its required regulatory reports) Dell (DELL) might even look interesting again. Stretching a bit further, Sun Microsystems (a href="http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/category/tech/sunw/">SUNW - Annual Report) and Lexmark (LXK) come to mind. And don’t forget the storage plays, which also showed up on the PPI hotlist. The names I mentioned then were Brocade (BRCD), EMC (EMC - Annual Report), Iomega (IOM), Hutchinson (HTCH), Quantum (QTM), SanDisk (SNDK - Annual Report), Seagate (STX - Annual Report) and Western Digital (WDC).

Communications equipment is also showing some signs of strength. Though the latest month was down, the trend seems to be up.

I have actually analyzed Motorola (MOT - Annual Report), so that would be a play to include here. Cisco (CSCO), Research in Motion (RIMM), 3Com (COMS), Nokia (NOK) and Corning (GLW - Annual Report) also come to mind.

And finally, turning away from technology, I hope you didn’t think the aircraft boom was over. If anything, it looks to be picking up steam.

Ways to play this include Boeing (BA - Annual Report), Embraer (ERJ), General Dynamics (GD - Annual Report), United Industrial (UIC) and Cessna parent Textron (TXT). Parts suppliers include Rockwell Collins (COL), Curtiss Wright (CW - Annual Report), and LMI Aerospace (LMIA).

So there you have it: 28 potential stock ideas from what looked at first glance to be a negative report on durable goods.

Disclosure: Long RIMM put options at time of publication.

This article was originally posted at RealMoney on Sept. 11, 2007.

As I noted in my Motorola column, I like to take a look at the stocks with unusual option activity on StockPickr to see if there is anything sufficiently interesting to investigate further. Friday’s list was a doozy, with heavy activity listed for deep out-of-the-money October calls for Motorola (MOT - Annual Report), Arch Coal (ACI) and Yahoo! (YHOO). Having found a possible long-term bargain in Motorola I turned my attention to Yahoo! to see if I could pull a two-fer. Alas, it looks as though I may have bagged my limit.

Unlike Motorola, Yahoo! has no chance at a bloodletting fire-the-CEO rally (justified or not) because it has already happened. Instead, any hopes for a short-term pop in Yahoo! shares are probably underpinned by the persistent buyout rumors, with Microsoft (MSFT - Annual Report) and EBay (EBAY) being the buyers most frequently bandied about. But the problem with those rumors is they have been around forever, and so far smoke has yet to signal fire. Anybody buying the name in hopes of a buyout should therefore be prepared (and paid) to wait.

So, will Yahoo! reward a patient approach? It doesn’t look that way to me. Its free cash flow in 2006 was $700 million, half the level achieved in 2005. It is only good for a 2.3% free cash flow yield on the current enterprise value. That means essentially all of the return potential has to come from growth – which doesn’t seem like a safe bet given last year’s decline. Sure, the growth rate over the last five years is nearly 45% – but that is coming off of the lowest lows of the Internut Bust. The consensus five-year growth estimate is 24%, including a 20% decline in the current year. By implication, that means the subsequent four years would have to post average growth of nearly 40% annually. Color me skeptical. With an ROE of just 8.27%, assuming growth will be faster than that implies adding debt or issuing new shares unless they can somehow boost the ROE itself – a feat far easier said than done. Coincidentally (or not) that is about in line with the actual year/year growth rate in the latest quarter.

I know, I know – that’s all just academic theory. So let’s consider Yahoo’s businesses to get a feel for what the company can do to boost that ROE and ramp up the earnings growth. According to the latest 10Q, fee-based businesses such as premium mail, web hosting and premium Flickr accounts contribute just 12% of revenue. While they may grow, it is hard to imagine them growing enough to move the needle. That leaves “marketing services” such as HotJobs and display advertising. Somehow, the latest employment report leaves me less than fired up about HotJobs’ prospects. As for display advertising, financial services firms have accounted for anywhere from 12% to 30% of online advertising. A good chunk of that is mortgage refinancing and credit cards – both of which seem likely to suffer as credit standards return to historic norms.

Yahoo! is a great company, with a balance sheet strong enough to carry them through any downturn in the online advertising market. But they aren’t generating enough cash flow today to make waiting for the recovery worthwhile – at least not for me. There are other companies out there that look like safer bets. While Yahoo! could very well return to growth, it just looks too hard to earn a return high enough to compensate for the risk.

The following article was previously published at RealMoney on Sept. 10, 2007.

Though I consider myself a longer-term investor, I like to take a look at the stocks with unusual option activity on StockPickr to see if there is anything sufficiently interesting to investigate further. Friday’s list was a doozy, with heavy activity listed for deep out-of-the-money October calls for Motorola (MOT - Annual Report), Arch Coal (ACI) and Yahoo! (YHOO). I dug a little deeper on Motorola, and came away thinking it might be worthwhile even for those willing to wait longer than October to see a return.

Motorola was having an investor day on Friday, though it is hard to imagine anyone thinking it would produce an announcement worthy of a 20% up move. In fact, there probably is only one such possible announcement, and that is of Ed Zander’s resignation. The company has struggled to find a follow-up that matches the RAZR’s success, let alone one-ups it. In Zander’s own words, “In Mobile Devices, we did not achieve the level of sales and unit shipments that we had expected, primarily in Asia and the Middle East and Africa. Europe, as we have been saying all year, continues to be a challenge.” The message boards are downright gruesome.

But if all it takes for a 20% up-move in Motorola is a new CEO, the market has gotten awful forgetful. After all, it was just four short years ago that the stock rallied 10% (from a far lower base) on the news that Chris Galvin was resigning to be replaced by Zander. It makes one wonder why they keep them as long as they do – if I could get a 10% rally on every CEO firing, I wish Motorola would do it at least once a year. Zander is credited with putting the RAZR on the fast-track and for… not much else. Why settle for anyone’s second-best idea? Give them a few months to put their best one into action, then sayonara! It’s time to find someone else, with a new best idea. Call it crowd-sourcing for CEOs.

So in case you missed the sarcasm, color me skeptical that Zander’s departure would do much for Motorola over the long term. And don’t tell me they need “compelling products” when Nokia (NOK) consistently produces the blandest, clunkiest, ugliest, bulkiest – and best-selling – phones on the market. The analyst day highlighted a return to cash generation – which will definitely be needed for a turnaround to succeed, regardless of who is behind it.

Motorola generated cash flow from operating activity of $3 billion in 2004, $4.6 billion in RAZR-backed 2005 and $3.5 billion last year. For the last 12 months, however, they are down to $2.2 billion – of which $700 million was used up in capex. Still, in a somewhat depressed year it is enough to make the free cash flow yield on Motorola’s $35.6 billion enterprise value comparable with the current treasury yield. All Motorola needs to do is get cash flow back to 2004 levels and today’s investors will be compensated for accepting the risk. If they can get to 2004 free cash flow levels and grow the cash flow a measly 2% per year from there I estimate the stock would be worth nearly $23 – more than 25% above the current price. They could pretty much do that just by trimming R&D expense to the 2004 level (which was all they needed to produce the previous hit product anyway.) This scenario doesn’t require them to create the next RAZR, but if they did it would make for a nice icing on the cake.

The obvious risk to this thesis is that cash flow could move in the wrong direction. It isn’t hard to imagine possible scenarios where this happens, especially given the lukewarm reaction the street is giving the recent comments on cash flow improvement. It wouldn’t be the first time a management team gave up on a promising strategy in order to give investors what they thought they wanted. If you are a buyer on the cash flow story you’ll probably want to flee for the exits if anything is announced that will eat up the cash. Fortunately, however, Icahn is nipping at Motorola’s heels. That might be enough to keep them from doing anything too rash.

Cellular News put out a story called Top 10 Handsets Sales Statistics for July:

The Swedish manufacturer of carrying cases for portable electronics, Krusell, has released their “Top 10″-list for July 2007. The list is based upon the number of pieces of model specific mobile and smart phone cases that have been ordered from Krusell during July 2007. Krusell’s list is unique due to the fact that it reflects the sales of phones on six continents and in more than 50 countries around the globe. 1. (2) Nokia 6300
2. (1) Sony Ericsson K790i/K800i/K810i
3. (3) Nokia N95
4. (4) Nokia N73
5. (9) Sony Ericsson W880i
6. (-) Blackberry RIM 8300 Curve
7. (5) Blackberry Pearl 8100C/G/V
8. (9) Nokia 6233/6234
9. (6) Sony Ericsson K750i/W700i/W800i
10. (-) Nokia 5500 Sport

Notably missing from the list is the iPhone, but then again Krusell isn’t making a case for it yet. Just one of the many potential flaws in this type of market share analysis.

More interesting is the presence of two Blackberry models and nothing from Motorola, given how many observers have fretted over the fact that Research in Motion (RIMM) is carrying a higher market valuation than Motorola (MOT - Annual Report). Perhaps the higher value is deserved.

Or perhaps people just like to wrap Blackberries in leather.

So Motorola (MOT - Annual Report) reported earnings today, and seeing as how they preannounced them last week they came in right on target. The press release was full of gung-ho corporate-speak about how they were going to focus on profitability and cash flow, but what really got my head spinning was next quarter’s guidance:

The company’s outlook for earnings per share from continuing operations in the third quarter is flat to slightly up compared to second quarter earnings from continuing operations excluding highlighted items. This outlook excludes any reorganization of business charges associated with the company’s operating expense reduction initiatives, as well as any other items of the variety highlighted by the company in its quarterly earnings releases. While the company does not expect the Mobile Devices business to be profitable for the full year, it does expect its financial results to improve in the second half of the year.

Say what?  It sounds like they used Babel Fish to translate it into Japanese and then back into English before printing it. I’m having it sent to the embassy for translation, but I think it means if you ignore anything management asks you to ignore they should earn $0.02 or a bit more next quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $0.04.

Maybe there was a reason for its inscrutability.

When Motorola, Inc. (MOT - Annual Report) said last week that they would be taking a charge, I said:

When I do the math for taxes and share counts, it looks like the charge will amount to $0.03 per share. Which doesn’t sound like much until you check the earnings estimates, and find that $0.03 was all the company was expected to earn in the quarter. Easy come, easy go.

Turns out I was being too generous. Yesterday the company announced preliminary estimates of second quarter 2007 financial results:

Although the company has not finalized its financial results for the quarter, the company expects second quarter sales to be in the range of $8.6 billion to $8.7 billion. The company previously estimated that second quarter sales would be essentially flat with first quarter 2007 sales of $9.4 billion. The company expects a second quarter GAAP loss per share from continuing operations in the range of $(0.02) to $(0.04), including estimated net charges of approximately $0.03 – $0.04 per share related to previously announced workforce reductions and other highlighted items.

The company’s shortfall in sales and earnings for the second quarter is primarily attributable to lower overall unit volumes in the Mobile Devices business in Asia and Europe.

The previous expectations were already factoring in Motorola’s fall from RAZR-driven grace. So now the question becomes whether the additional weakness is more company-specific problems or whether the entire industry is running into trouble. Samsung’s numbers today should provide a clue.

Update: Sony Ericsson is taking share: Sales in the quarter were boosted by a 59 percent rise in handset shipments to 24.9 million from 15.7 million the previous year.

Back in May Motorola (MOT - Annual Report) announced they were going to lay off some people and take a charge. Today the company  quantified the amount in an SEC Filing:

In connection with the previously announced workforce reduction and the additional workforce reduction announced on May 30, 2007, the Company has taken specific actions in the second quarter of 2007 that will affect approximately 2,100 employees. The result will be a net pre-tax charge in the second quarter totaling approximately $101 million (comprised of $115 million in charges associated with the actions described above and $14 million in reversals for accruals from prior periods that are no longer needed).

When I do the math for taxes and share counts,  it looks like the charge will amount to $0.03 per share. Which doesn’t sound like much until you check the earnings estimates, and find that $0.03 was all the company was expected to earn in the quarter. Easy come, easy go.