My latest column is up at RealMoney.

I think a long Ingram Micro (IM) and short Tech Data paired trade can take advantage of differences in valuation regardless of what happens next in business spending.

While the two companies tend to take turns outperforming one another, over the last five years and since the market peak in early 2000 their cumulative performance is nearly identical. This time around, I’d expect both companies’ P/E multiples to converge, perhaps to 10 times estimated 2009 earnings. To budget in the possibility of further estimate cuts, I am also using the lowest estimate on the Street.

At 10 times the Street-low estimate of $2.38, Tech Data could see a further drop of nearly 30% from current levels. Ingram, meanwhile, could see a 20% share price rise if it were to trade at 10 times the 2009 low estimate of $1.86.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned.

I recently looked at some of the enterprise software calls to get a check on tech spending. Today I take a look at hardware. The big (and most recent) news came from Cisco (CSCO):

Our balanced product momentum across our core technologies and advanced technologies continues to be the best I have seen in a number of quarters….
Let me approach it from a broad perspective. First is what we are seeing is the importance of balance on a global basis. I have been in this business for 30 years — Jim, I think you have been there that long or maybe a hair longer. It’s the strongest global economy I have been a part of.

(Excerpt from full CSCO conference call transcript)

It was funny that nobody challenged him on this, as anyone who has been in the business for long must surely remember Chambers’ comments in 2000. According to a CIO Magazine case study called “What Went Wrong at Cisco:”

Xilinx’s Wall Street warning came two months before Cisco Chief Strategy Officer Mike Volpi told The Wall Street Journal in November, “We haven’t seen any sign of a slowdown.” Volpi told The Journal that Cisco hadn’t changed its internal plans since the beginning of its fiscal year in August. “We have guided [Wall Street] accurately, and we can execute to plan.”
On Dec. 4, CEO Chambers crowed to analysts, “I have never been more optimistic about the future of our industry as a whole or of Cisco.”
Eleven days later, CIO Solvik says, the company saw the problem for the first time.

In case you were wondering, Xilinx (XLNX) lowered its guidance in June, then missed the lower estimate. However, they didn’t pin the blame on Cisco. On their call, they said:

During last quarters’ call, we forecasted that all geographies extension plan would be up sequentially. Japan was down sequentially as planned, but so was Europe, which turned out to be surprise. This quarter our top 10 European accounts, which represent 45% of total European sales were up 16%, but the main remaining channel accounts were down 19%. The weakness was mainly in the distribution channel across a few end markets including industrial, audio and video broadcast and data processing.

(Excerpt from full XLNX conference call transcript)

Turning to some other companies, EMC (EMC - Annual Report) is certainly having no trouble.

Looking quickly at the IT spending outlook for 2007, we see a positive environment in all major geographies and we believe there is opportunity for us to beat our annual financial targets for revenue, earnings per share and cash flow. EMC’s positive results and momentum are obviously only possible because customers are embracing our strategy, our leading products, our services and our solution sets at each of our four businesses — storage, content management and archiving, RSA security and VMware.

(Excerpt from full EMC conference call transcript)

Other tech companies aren’t so lucky. Sun (a href="http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/category/tech/sunw/">SUNW - Annual Report) said:

Sun’s total revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2007 were $3.835 billion, an increase of 0.2% as compared with $3.828 billion in revenue reported for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2006.

(Excerpt from full SUNW conference call transcript)

The largest technology distributor, Ingram Micro (IM) had a mixed quarter - overall sales were reasonably strong but currency fluctuations played a big role:

On a regional basis, North America sales where $3.3 billion, essentially, flat versus the prior year or 40% of total revenues. As we described at last quarter warranty sales on behalf of our vendors are now recognized as net fees rather than gross revenues in cost of sales as reported in the prior year period. We saw a negative impact on year-over-year sales comparisons of approximately 5%. European sales were $2.78 billion or 34% of total revenues, an increase of 16% versus a year ago. The translation impact of relatively strong European currencies contributed an 8 percentage point positive impact on comparisons to the prior year.

Asia pacific sales were $1.76 billion, an increase of 31% over the prior year and 22% of our total sales. Finally Latin America sales were up 4% versus last year to $344 million representing 4% of our total sales.

(Excerpt from full IM conference call transcript)

Much like the software conference calls, the outlook appears reasonably positive. However, I’m not ready to break out the champagne and say were past the tech spending doldrums. Results are mixed, the financial sector is very important to tech spending, and Cisco’s forecasting track record doesn’t help my confidence level. While I’d love to see tech spending improve, I’ll have to see it to believe it.

Disclosure: Author is long IShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ) at time of publication.

Ingram Micro Inc. (NYSE: IM), the world’s largest technology distributor, announced financial results for the second quarter, which ended June 30, 2007. Worldwide sales for the quarter were $8.19 billion, an 11 percent increase from $7.40 billion in the prior-year period and an all-time record for a second quarter. The translation impact of the relatively stronger European currencies had an approximate three percentage-point effect on comparisons to the prior year.

8% growth ex currency is the type of fairly bland result we have been seeing from tech companies for a long time.  I had been turning hopeful as CDW Corp.’s (CDWC) sales growth accelerated, and some of the economic indicators suggested a bottoming out. But EMC’s  (EMC - Annual Report) results and the durable goods report are throwing cold water on the thesis. Ingram didn’t make things worse, but it didn’t make them better either.

The Economic Calendar is quiet in the early part of this week but there are important reports at the end of the week. On Thursday is the Durable Goods report, for which the consensus estimates a 2.0% increase. On Friday is the Preliminary Estimate of 2Q GDP, which the consensus has pegged at 3.2%. That sounds a little high to me based on the economic data table I’ve been compiling.

EconomicData

The Earnings Calendar is as busy as it can get. Some of the names I’ll be watching:

Monday

• Altera (ALTR) - Xilinx (XLNX)  filed an awful report. Can Altera do any better? Consensus is $0.19 EPS on sales of $314 million.
• Hexcel (HXL) - This Small Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member was seeing rising estimates until last month, when they were cut from $0.20 to the current $0.17.
• Steel Dynamics (STLD - Annual Report) - The Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member is expected to earn $1.04 on sales of $948 million.
• Texas Instruments (TXN - Annual Report) - expected to earn $0.42 on $3.45 billion in sales.

Tuesday

• CH Robinson (CHRW - Annual Report) - estimates have been rising and now stand at $0.47, but Landstar (LSTR - Annual Report) disappointed.
• CDW Corporation (CDWC) - stellar monthly sales reports have kept estimates rising. They now stand at $0.97.
• EMC Corporation (EMC - Annual Report) - The big news is still the VMWare IPO, but it is also a decent look at enterprise tech spend.
• Laboratory Corporation of America (LH) - The Mid Cap and Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member has been seeing positive earnings revisions and is now expected to earn $1.09 on $1.03 billion in revenue.
• Lexmark (LXK) preannounced and will probably offer poor guidance.
• Linear Technology (LLTC) - expected to earn $0.35 on $267 million in sales.
• Norsk Hydro (NHY) - The Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member has no analyst coverage right now.
• Plantronics (PLT) - my covered call position is now being cashed out so I’ve no skin in this one. But it is often volatile.
• United Parcel Services (UPS) is a great read on the health of the economy. Expectations are $1.03 on $12.23 billion in revenue.

Wednesday

• Arkansas Best (ABFS) - after Landstar’s (LSTR - Annual Report) weak quarter I’m expecting a poor showing. Estimates have come down to $0.67, but may not have come down enough.
• Colgate Palmolive (CL) - Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member unlikely to surprise much. Consensus is $0.83 on $3.31 billion.
• Corning (GLW - Annual Report) - is LCD supply/demand back in balance?
• Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX - Annual Report) -Another Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member with dramatic positive earnings revisions, now standing at $2.71.
• Graco (GGG) is another Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member. Estimates have been coming down and are now at $0.61.
• MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) - Is polysilicon supply catching up to demand for this Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member?
• Xerox (XRX) - can they make the numbers without asking investors to ignore a bunch of stuff? I don’t doubt they will earn $0.27 as expected but wonder how they’ll get there.

Thursday

• Federated Investors (FII) is on the Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) and expected to earn $0.54.
• Ingram Micro (IM) is on the Small Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) and expected to earn $0.36.
• KLA-Tencor (KLAC) - I know the semiconductor equipment fundamentals stink. I want to know how much and whether it is priced in.
• NII Holdings (NIHD) is on the Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) and expected to earn $0.49.
• Western Digital (WDC) is on the Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) and expected to earn $0.36.

Disclosure: William Trent has a long position in SMH.

Earlier today I said “Other signs are pointing to the consumer slowdown extending beyond just housing-related stores. The consumer was the last leg in the economy’s stool, so businesses had better take up the slack or we could be in for more of a slowdown than we already have.”

Right on cue, I learn that CDW’s Average Daily Sales Increase 25.3 Percent in June 2007 and 24.4 Percent in the Second Quarter of 2007:

Excluding Berbee sales in June 2007, and therefore on a non-GAAP basis, CDW’s average daily sales for June 2007 were $31.641 million, an increase of 15.9 percent compared to average daily sales for June 2006 of $27.293 million and total sales for June 2007 were $664.5 million, an increase of 10.7 percent compared to total sales of $600.4 million for June 2006.

That is a pretty darned good number. If it is happening across the board, and not as a result of CDW gaining market share, the GDP chart for tech equipment and software spending won’t look like this for long.

If it is an industry-wide phenomenon, there are positive implications for Tech Data (TECD), Ingram Micro (IM) and Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member Synnex (SNX) as well as for their suppliers, primarily Hewlett Packard (HPQ - Annual Report).

With the end of the first quarter approaching, it is time to adjust the names in my Watch Lists. I will price all the new lists as of the close on Friday, June 29.

Today I present my planned updates to the Small Cap Watch List. There was a fairly high level of turnover to the list. 12 of the 24 names from the previous run made it to the current list, which was also 24 names. Performance-wise, the list created in March has returned an unweighted average return of 2.6% through June 28, with 80% of the stocks in positive territory. All of the money-losers from the previous list fell out of consideration.
So without further ado, the names on the chopping block from the previous list are: PW Eagle (PWEI), Insteel Industries (IIIN), Allied Defense (ADG - Annual Report), Hartmarx (HMX), Parlux (PARL), Hansen Natural (HANS), FirstFed Financial (FED), Young Innovations (YDNT), ITT Educational (ESI), Rent-a-Center (RCII), Valassis (VCI), and Travelzoo (TZOO). The castaways include four of the five money losers from the previous portfolio (HMX, PARL, YDNT and TZOO) as well as the biggest gainer (ESI).
The new list is:

I will continue to track both lists on StockPickr.

Ingram Micro (IM) reported earnings:

Worldwide sales for the quarter were $8.25 billion, a 9 percent increase from $7.60 billion in the prior-year period. The translation impact of the relatively stronger European currencies had an approximate 3 percentage-point positive effect on comparisons to the prior year.Net income for the first quarter was $37.0 million, or $0.21 per diluted share which is at the high end of the company’s earnings guidance issued on March 1, 2007. As previously announced, a first-quarter charge of $33.8 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, was recorded to cost of sales for commercial taxes on software imports in Brazil, reflecting tax legislation enacted on February 28, 2007. In addition, the first quarter included a benefit of approximately $0.02 per diluted share from the favorable resolution of a U.S. tax audit.

The adjusted numbers slightly missed analyst expectations of $0.39 on $8.2 billion in sales. However, the company is expecting stronger sales performance next quarter:

* Sales are expected to range from $8.00 billion to $8.25 billion.
* Net income is expected to range from $59 million to $65 million, or $0.34 to $0.37 per diluted share.

With the street currently at $0.36 on $7.95 billion in sales, it seems the company is forming a pattern of better sales and slightly worse margins. However, in much of the world margins improved. The company explained:

European operating income was $35.0 million or 1.15 percent of revenues versus $34.5 million or 1.28 percent of revenues in the year-ago quarter. The additional operating expenses related to improving service levels and regaining market share that suffered from the transition to the upgraded warehouse management system in Germany had a negative impact on European operating income compared to the prior year.

If Ingram can regain its market share, the margins should improve. For now, the market will probably be focused on the improving sales growth.

With the end of the first quarter approaching, it is time to adjust the names in our Watch Lists. We will price all the new lists as of the close on Friday, March 30. Today we present our planned updates to the Small Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy).

Frankly, we were surprised at the amount of turnover in our screens. Only 9 of the original 29 names made the cut for the new list (which comes in at only 24 names.) Still, given the level of outperformance we saw in the first quarter (actually just two months) and the fact that much of those gains were achieved early, perhaps the turnover is warranted.

So without further ado, the names on the chopping block from the previous list are:

Silgan Holdings (SLGN - Annual Report); Steel Dynamics (STLD - Annual Report); NVR (NVR - Annual report); Middleby (MIDD); Vector Group (VCG); Sanderson Farms (SAFM); Downey Financial (DSL); Waddell & Reed (WDR); Wilshire Bancorp (WIBC); Harrington West (HWFG); Gamco Investors (GBL); Apria Healthcare (AHG); Papa John’s (PZZA); Cato Corporation (CTR); Meredith Corporation (MDP); CSG Systems (CSGS); Energy East (EAS); Dynamics Research (DRCO); Ingram Micro (IM); and Dade Behring (DADE).

The new watch list will be:

After Dell reported a decline and Hewlett Packard, Ingram Micro and Tech Data all showed mid-single-digit gains, one might wonder whether CDW was taking market share after seeing this headline:

CDW’s Average Daily Sales Increase 14.2 Percent in February 2007: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

CDW Corporation (NASDAQ:CDWC - News), a leading provider of technology products and services to business, government and education, today announced average daily sales for February 2007 were $28.018 million, an increase of 14.2 percent compared to average daily sales of $24.533 million for February 2006. Total sales for February 2007 were $560.4 million, an increase of 14.2 percent compared to total sales of $490.7 million for February 2006. There were 20 billing days in both February 2007 and February 2006.

But not so fast.

As previously announced, CDW completed the acquisition of Berbee Information Networks Corporation on October 11, 2006. February 2006 sales do not include Berbee sales, while February 2007 sales include Berbee sales. Excluding Berbee sales in February 2007, and therefore on a non-GAAP basis, CDW’s average daily sales for February 2007 were $26.080 million compared to average daily sales for February 2006 of $24.533 million and total sales for February 2007 were $521.6 million compared to total sales of $490.7 million for February 2006, both representing an increase of 6.3 percent.

Ah. Mid-single digit growth. Just what we’ve come to expect. Unfortunately our expectations don’t seem to be lining up with those of the market. The consensus growth rate is 14% for the next five years.

Tech Data Reports Fourth-Quarter and Fiscal-Year 2007 Results: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

Net sales for the fourth quarter ended January 31, 2007, were $6.1 billion, an increase of 10.7 percent from $5.5 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2006 and an increase of 12.7 percent compared to the third quarter of the current fiscal year.

The numbers were well ahead of the $0.58 consensus number, which is partially explained by the company’s very low margins - it doesn’t take much of a margin improvement or sales increase to have a large effect on earnings.

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007, operating income was $65.5 million, or 1.07 percent of net sales. This compared to operating income of $55.3 million, or 1.00 percent of net sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2006.

You see - going from razor-thin margins to wafer-thin margins can help a lot.

As far as the health of technology spending, our main interest when looking at Tech Data (whose status as one of the largest tech distributors makes it a decent read on the overall industry,) it didn’t look so hot. Excluding any currency effects sales were up about 5% year/year. Nothing to write home about (though Dell would take it.) Overall, it supports what we’ve seen throughout the industry - a mid-single digit growth rate, roughly in line with nominal GDP growth. Given the double-digit long-term growth estimates we see provided for many tech companies (Yahoo shows 10% for TECD and 15% for the distributors as a whole - what a laugh) investors are presumably hoping for better.

They won’t get it. The company’s outlook:

For the first quarter ending April 30, 2007, the company anticipates net sales to be in the range of $5.20 billion to $5.35 billion. This assumes year-over-year mid-single digit growth in the Americas region and flat year-over-year growth in Europe on a local currency basis. The company also anticipates an effective tax rate for the first quarter of fiscal 2008 in the range of 42 percent to 44 percent.

Consensus was for 5.36 billion in sales. And if that long-term growth rate doesn’t come down it won’t be the last disappointment for either Tech Data or the industry.