This article is a reprint of my February 8, 2008 RealMoney column

One of my favorite investment themes is engineering and infrastructure software, which I think combines the high margins and cash flow stability of a software investment with the positive long-term trends in global infrastructure development. I think investors can profit handsomely from a potential 64% rise in Autodesk, the leading player in this market.

In November I wrote bullishly about Dassault (DASTY) and Ansys (ANSS), which I bought in January. Since those columns were written the stocks have performed in-line with the market, which is a nicer-sounding euphemism for saying they have gone down. I was more bearish about Parametric (PMTC), which has indeed turned in the worst performance of the three.

Long term, however, I still think the space has tremendous opportunity and think the overall market downturn is providing additional opportunities – most notably that of industry leader Autodesk (ADSK). Autodesk is best known for its AutoCAD software, a customizable and extendable computer aided design (CAD) application for 2D drafting, detailing, functional design documentation and basic 3D model-based design.

A common misperception is that AutoCAD is focused on architectural markets, and that a slowdown in construction activity could be disproportionately harmful. However, the largest end market is manufacturing (product design) and the civil engineering/infrastructure market is nearly as meaningful as construction.

The shares were downgraded by an analyst at Jeffries in January, who cited “anecdotal channel evidence of slowing manufacturing demand in Europe” and a “decent chance” that spending on computer-aided design software and related technologies will slow in both North America and Europe in 2008. Yet his less-than-2% trims to his EPS estimates, which simply brought them in line with the rest of the crowd, are more than reflected in the 25% decline in the share price since the December.

At any rate, Autodesk continues to meet or exceed earnings estimates and has seen modest positive revisions to estimates over the last month. Since its products are used in the early stages of the construction process, if the potential slowdown doesn’t show up soon it likely won’t show up at all.

Furthermore, with more of its customers migrating to a subscription-based model some of the uncertainty surrounding upgrade adoption has been mitigated and revenue growth and stability are more transparent. Subscription revenues are growing at twice the rate of license sales. Deferred revenues have grown 12% in the last nine months, including an 18% increase in long-term deferred revenues. All of this lends to greater confidence in the level of sales and earnings over the next year.

Autodesk generated $640 million in free cash flow over the last 12 months, which amounts to a free cash flow yield approaching 8% of enterprise value. With a 500-basis point advantage over Treasuries and a long-term expected growth rate of 16% (which is more than justified by the company’s high return on equity) the stock looks very attractive here.

If Autodesk grows in line with estimates and narrows the spread between its cash flow yield and the Treasury yield to a still-attractive 100%, its shares could rise to $63, for a potential return of 64%. The shares offered a similar spread to Treasuries as recently as December, when the shares were trading above $51. Meanwhile, short of a considerable decline from the existing level of sales and cash flow it is hard to see significant further downside.

Disclosures: Long Ansys (ANSS)

This article was originally published at RealMoney on November 19, 2007.

With shares of Ansys (ANSS) up 100% over the last two years and more than 1,200% over the last seven, it hardly qualifies as undiscovered. However, with only four analysts covering the stock – and none from bulge bracket investment firms, the stock may remain under-appreciated.

Earnings have exceeded estimates by a wide margin for several consecutive quarters (including a significant earnings beat just two weeks ago), which is further evidence that the current consensus may not fully reflect the company’s earnings power. The shares soared on that news but have since come back down to their prior levels due to the overall stock market weakness. I think this baby is wrongfully being thrown out with the market’s bath water.

Ansys (ANSS) designs engineering simulation software used in such industries as aerospace, automotive, manufacturing, electronics, biomedical and defense. Simulation software reduces the time it takes to move products from the design stage into manufacturing because it allows for much of the necessary product testing to be simulated rather than tested on prototypes. Ansys licenses its technology to businesses, educational institutions, and governmental agencies.

On May 1, 2006 Ansys acquired one of its largest competitors, Fluent. The acquisition depressed trailing earnings and elevated trailing valuation multiples, possibly keeping Ansys off the radar screen of some investors.

Despite a fairly hefty multiple of 28x next year’s earnings, the company generates a strong free cash flow yield of 3.5%, which is nearly as high as the current yield on five-year treasuries. Unlike Treasuries, Ansys also offers significant growth that should more than compensate for accepting the related risk. Based on my calculations, the stock has an intrinsic value of $46 per share based on that ability to generate excess cash.

An Eye on the Risks

With the possibility of a recession rising, it is worth considering a possible demand slowdown. The company’s largest end markets are aerospace and autos. Aerospace is booming but major projects like the A-380 and Boeing Dreamliner are past the design stage, so arguably demand could slow until the next major product cycle is under way. Autos face the opposite risk – slowing demand due to the overall industry’s distress.

The long sales cycle and potential for large license sales can lead to lumpy sales patterns, a risk reduced by the Fluent acquisition since Fluent sells a higher proportion of lease-based licenses rather than perpetual licenses. Ansys has been a leader for many years, and even if it were to fall behind technologically its customers would be unwilling to migrate to a new platform immediately. This lag could allow them to catch up or buy the necessary technology.

The company could fail to successfully integrate a future acquisition. However, its acquisition of Fluent, and Dassault’s (DASTY) purchase of ABAQUS, has reduced the pool of potentially large acquisition candidates significantly.

Valuation

Ansys has generated more than $103 million of free cash flow in the last 12 months. Based on its current enterprise value of $2.9 billion, Ansys is generating a free cash flow yield of 3.5%, slightly less than the yield on five-year treasury securities.

According to Zacks Investment Research, the consensus five-year earnings growth estimate is 18% per year, which compares to 11% actual historic market growth and a 13% theoretical sustainable growth rate (equal to the average ROE since there is no dividend.)

I think sales can grow 15.7% in 2008 and 15% in 2009, which should generate nearly $130 million of free cash flow in 2008 ($1.60 per share) and $160 million in 2009 ($2.00 per share). At that time, assuming a 100% required return premium to treasuries and a 4% terminal growth rate the company could be worth $3.7 billion, or approximately $46 per share. I further believe they would have $4 per share in net cash by that time for a total potential value of $50 per share and total potential cash on cash return over the 2+ years of 30%. Discounting the cash flows to the present at a required return of 8.5% generates an estimated current intrinsic value of $46.00 per share, from which the current price represents a 20% discount.

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This article was originally published at RealMoney on November 6, 2007.

Parametric Technology (PMTC) develops software used for Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) and Enterprise Content Management (ECM). At a P/E of approximately 15x and a 5.3% free cash flow yield, Parametric appears cheap relative to other technical software developers. However, its earnings quality has historically been low and it faces more severe competition than some of its peers. With earnings quality improving and the valuation favorable, PMTC certainly bears watching. But for now I think Dassault Systemes (DASTY) and Ansys (ANSS) have sufficiently better prospects to justify their higher valuations.

Compared to companies like Ansys, which develops highly technical products and has relatively few competitors, Parametric has significant competition in each of its business segments.

PLM competitors include Dassault Systemes SA, Siemens (SI) subsidiary UGS, Autodesk (ADSK) and Agile Software (AGIL). They also compete with larger enterprise-solution companies such as SAP (SAP - Annual Report) that have entered the PLM market and offer solutions integrated with their other enterprise software applications.

ECM competitors include EMC (EMC - Annual Report) Documentum, IBM’s (IBM - Annual Report) FileNet, OpenText, Adobe (ADBE) Framemaker, and the Microsoft (MSFT - Annual Report) Office suite.

Parametric suffered mightily during the tech downturn, but since 2004 the company has been engineering a turnaround based on improved profitability and a return to growth. Current consensus growth estimates for the next five years are just 7%, or half the rate expected for the industry. The lower growth estimates are part of the reason for the cheaper valuation. However, they also make for a lower bar to clear, and the recent reversals of its deferred tax valuation allowance are a signal that the company is now “more likely than not” to earn sufficient income in future years to utilize tax losses from prior periods.

There are a few other issues that cause me to think Parametric’s low valuation is justified. For example, 58% of revenues are derived in North America, which faces an uncertain near-term economic outlook.

Another issue is earnings quality. Gross margins have been declining due to a higher percentage of revenue being derived from consulting and training rather than license and maintenance revenue. A bad debt charge-off in 2006 and increased customer financing activity are other signals that earnings quality may be low.

To get a feel for overall earnings quality, I calculated the accrual ratio, or the change in net operating assets divided by average net operating assets. This ratio describes the percentage of earnings contributed by discretionary accounting items rather than actual cash flows. An ideal accrual ratio would fluctuate around zero. Parametric’s has been all over the map, though it has been improving for several quarters.

Sources: Zacks Research Wizard, William A. Trent

If Parametric continues to improve its earnings quality, or if it gives back some of the stock gains it enjoyed post-earnings (or preferably both!) it could become an attractive buy candidate.  In the meantime, interested investors may find an option play worthwhile.

The January 17.50 puts were trading recently at $0.50/$0.75. If you could write the option for $0.60 it would offer a 3.1% 2.5-month return on the money at risk, which annualizes to nearly 15%. You’d be forced to pay $17.50 for the shares if they drop between now and then, but the option premium would give you an effective price of just $16.90. At that price, the 6.0% free cash flow yield would probably be enticing enough to justify a buy anyway.

Disclosure: Short naked put options on Ansys (ANSS)

William Trent currently has a short position in put options related to Office Depot (ODP).

This article was originally published at RealMoney on November 5, 2007.

Dassault Systemes (DASTY) is trading down nearly 6% after the company trimmed its earnings outlook by five Eurocents last week. The company now expects to earn between €1.96 and €2.00 in 2007, compared with earlier guidance of €2.00 - €2.05. With a solid overall business and a valuation that I believe looks reasonable, I think investors will ultimately find today’s price to have been an excellent entry point.

Dassault designs engineering software used for Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) (81% of 2006 revenue) and Mainstream 3-D design (19%). It has grown through organic growth and a series of acquisitions, including Abaqus in 2005 and MatrixOne in 2006 – each of which was in the order of $500 million consideration. It is 44.5% owned and effectively controlled by France’s Groupe Industriel Marcel Dassault.

Dassault offers software under several brands, including Solidworks for Mainstream 3D design and CATIA, DELMIA, SIMULIA and ENOVIA for PLM. However, a key aspect of its growth strategy is to combine the strengths of its various programs and allow customers to customize solutions using the company’s V5 platform.

The company generates 47% of its revenue in Europe, 31% in the Americas and the remainder in Asia. Although it blamed the lowered outlook on the weak dollar, the company’s latest annual report said its greatest currency exposures are between the Euro (its reporting currency) and the Yen, Pound and Korean Won.

More than half of the company’s sales are on a recurring (software rental or maintenance contract) basis rather than through perpetual license fees. With a largely industrial customer base, revenue growth drivers include business investment and industrial production in its end markets.

Competition

Dassault lists its primary PLM competitors as Parametric (PMTC) and Unigraphics, which was recently acquired by Siemens (SI). Its main competitor in Mainstream 3D is Autodesk (ADSK). The company also competes with Ansys (ANSS), Agile (AGIL), MSC Software (a href="http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/category/msc-software-mscs/">MSCS - Annual Report) and to a lesser extent Oracle (ORCL - Annual Report) and SAP (SAP - Annual Report).

The combined revenue of the nearest competitors and comparables, which I believe to be Dassault, Ansys, MSC and Parametric, has been approximately 11% annually over the last decade. Dassault has used its acquisitions and the opportunities provided by the V5 platform to grow at a faster rate than its peers.

In 2006 Dassault grew 24%, much of which was contributed by the Abaqus and MatrixOne acquisitions. On an organic basis sales grew 10% (12% assuming constant currency exchange rates.)

Risks

As I see it, the greatest risk Dassault faces is loss of a major customer. Although the company cites a customer base of 100,000 just 20 of those account for 25% of sales, with the largest customer accounting for 5%.

A potentially greater, though probably less likely risk is the company’s long-standing relationship with International Business Machines (IBM - Annual Report). IBM has a non-exclusive distribution relationship with Dassault and accounted for 45% of sales in 2006, so a rift between the companies could have a serious impact. The companies renegotiated the partnership earlier this year such that Dassault is taking responsibility for mid-market customers and IBM will serve enterprise customers. However, this adds a new risk related to maintaining a larger sales force.

Valuation

Dassault current market cap is approximately $7.3 billion, and with net cash on hand of nearly half a billion its enterprise value is about $6.8 billion. Given that it is on track to exceed its 2006 free cash flow generation of $300 million, the free cash flow yield of 4.4% compares favorably to the yield on five-year treasuries, and the 10% growth rate of recent years looks like a nice inducement for taking on the added risk.

By some common measures (5x book value and a P/E in the mid-20’s) the stock doesn’t exactly look like a bargain. But these measures overlook the cash flow generating power available to software companies. With essentially fixed costs and high margins, each dollar of sales contributes mightily to cash.

Although a recession or slowdown in Dassault’s key end markets or further dollar weakening could delay investor rewards, Dassault’s current valuation and long-term prospects appear to justify the wait.

Disclosure: Short naked put options on Ansys (ANSS)

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I am taking a look at a couple of the engineering software stocks, and a review of recent conference call transcripts can frequently be a good place to start.

Ansys (ANSS) provides software that simulates physical forces such as turbulence, heat and pressure. Seldom was heard a discouraging word on that call, and for good reason. The closest I could come to was:

So even as we increase our outlook this will also be tempered of course by our short term engineers’ paranoia which I have to say has also served us well.”

(Excerpt from full ANSS conference call transcript)

Dassault Systemes (DASTY) has simulation and 3D design, plus software to help companies manage the product life cycle. It, too, has been on a tear for the past few years, and is showing no signs of stopping.

One of our most visible initiatives is the successful transformation of our PLM channel. Looking at the quarter, we had good progress in the PLM value channel and with IBM in large accounts. Our results today demonstrate that we are well in line with our plans, driving growth for CATIA and ENOVIA.

CATIA performed well with both large accounts and mid-market. We continue to invest in strengthening and broadening the CATIA product line. In mid-June, we completed the acquisition of ICEM, expanding our presence at the front-end of design. ENOVIA’s strong results demonstrate that our products form a powerful combination and are clearly complementary.

In total, we have had a dynamic product release schedule during the 2007 first half. We continue to advance our technology and strategic roadmap. During the second quarter, we launched our newest brand, 3DVIA, whose goal is to enable 3D to become a universal media for online product experiences.

(Excerpt from full DASTY conference call transcript)

Parametric (PMTC) has much in common with Dassault. Except for the being on a tear and showing no signs of stopping, that is.

We are disappointed with our performance in other areas. Most of the revenue shortfall was in license revenue. Our Desktop Solutions revenue declined year-over-year, which is counter to our recent trend of strong growth in this line of business.

The performance was spread across Pro/ENGINEER new seats, modules, and upgrades, with the most significant change from recent quarters in upgrade and module sales. By geography the revenue weakness was concentrated in North America and Japan.

(Excerpt from full PMTC conference call transcript)

The next question, of course, is to determine whether the successes at Ansys and Dassault are priced in, or whether Parametric has taken enough of a beating to be worth taking the risk.

Disclosure: Author is long IShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ) at time of publication.

Our earnings preview for Ansys (ANSS) said “Dassault beat big, and we like Ansys better.” This morning the company reported earnings:

– Total non-GAAP revenue of $89.6 million in the first quarter of 2007 and total GAAP revenue of $87.9 million in the first quarter of 2007 as compared to $46.0 million in the first quarter of 2006;

– A non-GAAP operating profit margin of 42.6% in the first quarter of 2007 as compared to 43.4% in the first quarter of 2006; a GAAP operating profit margin of 30.5% in the first quarter of 2007 as compared to 38.7% in the first quarter of 2006;

– Non-GAAP net income of $23.5 million in the first quarter of 2007 as compared to $14.5 million in the first quarter of 2006; GAAP net income of $16.2 million in the first quarter of 2007 as compared to GAAP net income of $12.9 million in the first quarter of 2006; and

– Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.58 in the first quarter of 2007 as compared to $0.42 in the first quarter of 2006; GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.40 in the first quarter of 2007 as compared to GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.38 in the first quarter of 2006.

Analysts were expecting the company to earn $0.46 on $87 million in sales. Partly on the strength of its recent product upgrade, the company also raised its guidance:

The Company currently expects the following for the quarter ending June 30, 2007:
– GAAP revenue in the range of $87 - $89 million
– Non-GAAP revenue in the range of $87 - $89 million
– GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.35 - $0.38
– Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.52 - $0.53

Fiscal Year 2007 Guidance
– The Company currently expects the following for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2007:
– GAAP revenue in the range of $363 - $366 million
– Non-GAAP revenue in the range of $365 - $368 million
– GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.46 - $1.53
– Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.14 - $2.17

Analysts had targeted $0.47 on $88 million in revenue for Q2 and $1.96 on $365 million in sales for the year. License sales appeared particularly strong, offering both higher profitability and the likelihood of higher future support revenues.

The Economic Calendar is relatively light this week. Potential market movers include:

• Wednesday’s Durable Goods report (consensus 2.2%)
• Friday’s advance report on Q1 GDP (consensus 1.8%)

Earnings are another story. We are in the peak part of earnings season this week. A few of the stocks we follow:

Monday

• Altera (ALTR) - valuation is rich but looks set up to beat on earnings.
• Texas Instruments (TXN - Annual Report) - March and June quarters have both had significant downward revisions. Will day of reckoning be forestalled?

Tuesday

• AU Optronics (AUO) - Forecasting losses, but panel business may have bottomed out.
• CDW Corporation (CDWC) - 14.6% sales growth doable given Berbee acquisition.
• CH Robinson (CHRW - Annual Report) - Could beat.
• CSG Systems (CSGS) - earnings should be a piece of cake. If private equity buyers don’t take them out they’ll do it themselves the slow way.
• Lexmark (LXK) - Estimates are doable but we’re always waiting for this company to trip up.
• ST Microelectronics (STM) - Doing the right thing. Hopefully will pay off.
• AT&T (T - Annual Report) - Estimates and stock both keep rising.

Wednesday

• Apple (AAPL) - Hunch: company will blow away earnings, issue horrible guidance and blame it on iPhone build.
• Arkansas Best (ABFS) - We’re staying away from truckers who own trucks.
• Corning (GLW - Annual Report) - current quarter ok, guidance at risk.
• LSI Logic (LSI) - May blame their poor guidance on Agere.
• Maxim (MXIM) - Company is out of gas but focus will be on whether they might sell out.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) - Nokia Nokia Blah Blah Nokia ad nauseam (excerpt from pending conference call transcript)
• Silicon Laboratories SLAB - Sold wireless just when biggest customer began to recover. What other surprises may be in store?
• UPS (UPS) - They shouldn’t have trouble beating the estimates (but that doesn’t mean they won’t).
• Xilinx (XLNX) - Altera with more risk to the earnings target.

Thursday

• Curtiss Wright (CW - Annual Report) - PPI data suggests they should beat big, but it suggested the same last quarter.
• KLA Tencor (KLAC) - Another place we’d rather not be right now.
• Microsoft (MSFT - Annual Report) - Vista is still not living up to expectations.
• MEMC Electronics (WFR) - Earnings surprises have been getting bigger each quarter. Now that we’ve put a semiconductor name on our Large Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) it will probably stop just to spite us.
• YRC Worldwide (YRCW) - See Arkansas Best.
• Sandisk (SNDK - Annual Report) - Will take more than one quarter to clear the channel inventory.

Friday

• Dassault Systemes (DASTY) - We like Ansys (ANSS) better but don’t see why this name wouldn’t beat.
• Ceradyne (CRDN)  - Earnings could be anywhere and don’t really matter.

Enjoy!

Disclosure: William Trent has a long position in SMH.

With the end of the first quarter approaching, it is time to adjust the names in our Watch Lists. We will price all the new lists as of the close on Friday, March 30. Today we present our planned updates to the Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy).

As with the Small Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy), we were surprised at the amount of turnover in our screens. Only 7 of the original 29 names made the cut for the new list (which comes in at only 24 names.) Part of the reason for the turnover was to reduce the overlap between the Small Cap and Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy)s. Now there is only one-third overlapping names rather than two thirds. Furthermore, given the level of outperformance we saw in the first quarter (actually just two months) and the fact that much of those gains were achieved early, perhaps the turnover is warranted.

So without further ado, the names on the chopping block from the previous list are:

Silgan Holdings (SLGN - Annual Report); Middleby (MIDD); Olin (OLN); Vector Group (VGR); Sanderson Farms (SAFM); Tesoro (TSO); Downey Financial (DSL); Waddell & Reed (WDR); Gamco (GBL); Apria Healthcare (AHG); Quest Diagnostics (DGX); ITT Educational Services (ESI); Equifax (EFX); Delhaize Group (DEG); Papa John’s (PZZA); Rent-a-Center (RCII); Cato Corp (CTR); Dassault Systemes (DASTY); Ingram Micro (IM); Energy East (EAS); South Jersey Industries (SJI - Annual Report); and American States Water (AWR).

The new list is:

Economic Releases

The Economic Calendar gets busy. We have durable goods (consensus = -3.0%) on Tuesday, preliminary GDP (consensus = 2.3%) on Wednesday, and ISM Manufacturing (consensus = 49.7) on Friday.
Earnings Reports

Ceradyne (CRDN) reports on Monday. It did not make it on any of our watch lists, but is nonetheless a name we follow. Consensus calls for $1.18 on $171 million in revenue, with forward guidance of $1.24 on $178 million.
Tech names Brocade (BRCD) and Marvell (MRVL - Annual Report) are also up on Monday. Brocade is expected to earn $0.10 on $215 million in revenue and guide to $0.08 on $337 million. Marvell is expected to earn $0.08 on $625 million in revenue and guide toward $0.10 on $650 million.
Autodesk (ADSK) reports on Tuesday. The company has some business overlap with Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member Dassault Systemes (DASTY). Autodesk is targeted to earn $0.46 on $497 million revenue and guide to $0.44 on $500.
The big earnings news for the week will be Dell (DELL) on Thursday. Estimates call for $0.29 EPS on $14.9 billion in revenue, and for guidance of $0.28 on $14.3 billion.

Ansys (ANSS), which makes simulation software to help engineers engineer things, is a great little company (we did a financial workup on it last year that is reasonably accurate still today.) We also missed a great buying opportunity last year and aren’t benefitting from today’s strong earnings report either [though we included the company’s closest competitor, Dassault Systemes (DASTY) in our Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy).]

Ansys grew its revenues by 78% in 2006, partly on the back of its acquisition of Fluent. It is guiding for another 37% in 2007, no acquisitions necessary. Dassault should profit from the strong industry growth as well.

Simulation software is an advanced engineering tool that formerly required high-end computers available only to senior engineers. One of the benefits of the vicious price environment for computer hardware is that the simulations can now be run on inexpensive equipment by any engineer. This is cutting the time and cost to develop all sorts of new products, and creating a much larger potential customer base for Ansys and Dassault. This is not a short term trend.

Looking over the earnings report we found little to criticize. The company implies that investors should ignore the write-off of in-process research and development costs incurred as part of the Fluent acquisition, but there are pretty good reasons to do so - at least in terms of estimating sustainable income.

The acquisition also resulted in 632 million of intangible assets, which now make up the vast majority of the company’s total assets. Tangible book value is negative. But this is a software company, and earnings and cash flow are more indicative of the company’s value than tangible assets.

So we’ll go ahead and pick at these nits, but they don’t lessen our admiration of the company or the industry.