Archive: Arkansas Best (ABFS)

XOM and TOT: Cross Sectional Comparison of Exxon Mobil and Total SA

For a book project we are working on we conducted a common size analysis of Exxon Mobil’s (XOM - Annual Report) and Total SA’s (TOT) financial statements. We figured it would be something worth passing along here.

In addition to comparing a single company’s performance over time, common size analysis can be a useful way to compare the performance of two or more companies with each other. However, this is not as easy as it may seem. For one thing, not all companies use the same reporting categories. Even if similar expense categories are used, one company may classify certain costs in a different category. For example, some companies include some or all of their depreciation expense within cost of sales, while others separate it out as a line item.

Exhibit 1 presents a side-by-side comparison of Total SA and and Exxon Mobil vertical common-size income statement data for 2006. Notice that Total reports higher “other operating expenses” than Exxon’s “production and manufacturing expenses” when measured as a percentage of sales. However, Total shows no category for “selling, general and administrative expense,” which it appears to include within that “other operating expenses” line along with production and manufacturing expense. To compare the performance, the investor must add Exxon’s production expenses (8.1%) to SG&A expenses (3.9%) to arrive at a category similar to Total’s “other operating expense.” On this basis, Exxon Mobil spent 12.0% on the category while Total spent 12.7%.

Exhibit 1: Cross Sectional Common Size Income Statement for Total SA and Exxon Mobil
xomtotcrosssectionalcommonsizeincomestatement.jpg

Other issues include differences in accounting methods. We discussed the fact that beginning in 2006 Exxon Mobil must record the full estimated amount of its pension shortfall, whereas before it was only required to recognize a portion of it. Under International Accounting Standards, Total still reports just a portion of the expense, so the two are no longer comparable on that basis.

Companies can also employ different business models. We earlier compared the fixed cost structure of Landstar (LSTR - Annual Report) and Arkansas Best (ABFS). Because of their different business models, the cost structures may also differ. Landstar pays its drivers a percentage of the revenue from each load, whereas Arkansas Best pays drivers per mile driven. Arkansas Best may be able to reduce driver pay, while for Landstar the pay varies with revenue and is therefore something they would want to maximize in absolute dollar terms.

For these reasons, investors should have a solid understanding of any differences in accounting methods between companies being compared. Additionally, it is usually preferable to compare more broad based common-size data rather than line-by-line comparisons. Generally speaking, operating margin, pre-tax margin and net profit margin are more comparable between firms than, for example, gross margin or SG&A expenses.

In the case of Total SA and Exxon Mobil, Exxon appears to have higher operating margins – primarily due to lower purchases of crude inventory as a percentage of sales. Given its larger size, it is probably able to produce more of its own requirements. Other operating items appear relatively evenly matched, once some categorization adjustments are made.

Exxon also has lower sales-based taxes and more “other income.” While the taxes are a fair issue, it is probably not fair to judge management performance on the basis of non-operational items. However, regardless of the sources Exxon Mobil clearly appears to return a higher percentage of sales to its shareholders.

We can also compare both companies to industry data. For example, Yahoo! Finance reports key industry financial ratios, with the data provided by Hemscott Americas. Here is a selection of the industry data they provided for the Major Integrated Oil & Gas Industry recently. It is important not to take such third-party data at face value, however. A reader pointed out to us that Hemscott lists two separate market capitalizations for Total. Using the wrong one will result in the ratios being calculated improperly.

Exhibit 2: Industry Financial Data
industryfinancialdata.jpg

The net profit margin given for Exxon Mobil and Total SA are similar to those we calculated, despite being made on the basis of the most recent quarter rather than the full year 2006. We can easily see that Exxon’s net margin was higher than the 10.3% industry average, while Total’s was lower.

We can also compare the debt to equity ratios of the firms and industry using this data. We find that Total SA has more debt than average, while Exxon has less. Finally, we can compare return on equity (see Chapter 6), which combines net income (an income statement item) with total equity (a balance sheet item.) Although both companies have higher returns on equity than the industry average, Exxon’s is the better of the two.

Overall it appears that Exxon Mobil is using its resources more effectively than Total.

Topics: Total SA (TOT), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Arkansas Best (ABFS), Landstar Systems (LSTR), Stock Market | No Comments

ABFS: Arkansas Best Beats

In our weekly earnings preview, we said “We’re staying away from truckers who own trucks.” Let’s see how that strategy is working out now that Arkansas Best Corporation (ABFS) Announces 1st Quarter 2007 Results:

Arkansas Best Corporation (Nasdaq: ABFS - News) today announced first quarter 2007 revenue of $422.6 million compared to $425.0 million in the first quarter of 2006. Arkansas Best’s first quarter 2007 income from continuing operations was $4.8 million, or $0.19 a share, compared to $5.8 million, or $0.23 a share, in the first quarter of 2006.

Consensus estimates called for the company to earn $0.15 per share on $415 million in sales. The results included $0.03 per share of “supplemental pension benefits” that it looks like the company wants investors to pull out of the earnings, though we can’t for the life of us imagine why investors would. Sure, the amount is volatile - but so are other Arkansas Best operating costs such as fuel.

“In October of 2006, ABF’s tonnage declined significantly compared to the previous year. In November, when it became apparent that fourth quarter tonnage would be below expectations, ABF began reducing costs to better match available business levels. Those tonnage declines have continued into 2007. However, the expense reduction steps first initiated last November helped better align ABF’s network with existing business. As a result, lower tonnage had less of an impact on ABF’s operating ratio than we’ve seen in previous downturns or in the fourth quarter of 2006,” said Robert A. Davidson, Arkansas Best President and Chief Executive Officer.

Analysts are expecting the company to earn $0.70 on $470 million in sales during the June quarter.

Turning to the financial statements, we are somewhat concerned by reductions in the amounts reserved for bad debt, as a percentage of the amount owed. If the reserves had been kept at the same percentage of receivables as last year earnings would have been $0.17. The fact that they beat estimates regardless of the discretionary accrual rate helps mitigate the concern a bit. However, cash flow from operations declined more than net income for the quarter compared to last year and the operating cash flows for the quarter were below the amount spent buying new equipment. Given quarterly fluctuations in cash flow it is too soon to make much of this concern other than to mention and monitor it.

The company will be holding a conference call at 11:00 a.m. Eastern today to discuss the results.

Topics: CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Arkansas Best (ABFS), Landstar Systems (LSTR), Stock Market | No Comments

The Week Ahead (22 April 2007)

The Economic Calendar is relatively light this week. Potential market movers include:

  • Wednesday’s Durable Goods report (consensus 2.2%)
  • Friday’s advance report on Q1 GDP (consensus 1.8%)

Earnings are another story. We are in the peak part of earnings season this week. A few of the stocks we follow:

Monday

  • Altera (ALTR) - valuation is rich but looks set up to beat on earnings.
  • Texas Instruments (TXN - Annual Report) - March and June quarters have both had significant downward revisions. Will day of reckoning be forestalled?

Tuesday

Wednesday

  • Apple (AAPL) - Hunch: company will blow away earnings, issue horrible guidance and blame it on iPhone build.
  • Arkansas Best (ABFS) - We’re staying away from truckers who own trucks.
  • Corning (GLW - Annual Report) - current quarter ok, guidance at risk.
  • LSI Logic (LSI) - May blame their poor guidance on Agere.
  • Maxim (MXIM) - Company is out of gas but focus will be on whether they might sell out.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) - Nokia Nokia Blah Blah Nokia ad nauseam (excerpt from pending conference call transcript)
  • Silicon Laboratories SLAB - Sold wireless just when biggest customer began to recover. What other surprises may be in store?
  • UPS (UPS) - They shouldn’t have trouble beating the estimates (but that doesn’t mean they won’t).
  • Xilinx (XLNX) - Altera with more risk to the earnings target.

Thursday

Friday

  • Dassault Systemes (DASTY) - We like Ansys (ANSS) better but don’t see why this name wouldn’t beat.
  • Ceradyne (CRDN)  - Earnings could be anywhere and don’t really matter.

Enjoy!

Disclosure: William Trent has a long position in SMH.

Topics: STMicroelectronics (STM), Curtiss Wright (CW), KLA-Tencor (KLAC), Arkansas Best (ABFS), Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM), Qualcomm (QCOM), AU Optronics (AUO), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Dassault Systemes (DASTY), Sandisk (SNDK), Watch List, Xilinx (XLNX), LSI Corp. (LSI), Altera (ALTR), YRC Worldwide (YRCW), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), Lexmark (LXK), ANSYS (ANSS), Ceradyne (CRDN), Microsoft (MSFT), United Parcel Service (UPS), AT&T (T), CSG Systems (CSGS), CDW Corp (CDWC), Corning (GLW), McAfee (MFE), Apple (AAPL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Silicon Laboratories (SLAB), Stock Market | 4 Comments

Truck Shipments Continue to Confirm Consumer Slowdown

Recent data from the Chicago Fed to home prices to retail sales and jobs data have all pointed to the long-awaited slowdown in consumer spending. The latest sign comes courtesy of the people who move the goods from manufacturer to retailer and, ultimately, consumer.
Trucking Shipments Drop by 1.7 Percent: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

U.S. trucking shipments declined by 1.7 percent in February compared with a year earlier, an industry trade group said.The American Trucking Associations, in a monthly report released Monday, said shipments have declined on a year-over-year basis for eight straight months. Its truck tonnage index rose 1.6 percent from January, however.

Because more than two-thirds of all manufactured and retail goods in the U.S. are carried by truck, the industry is considered an important economic bellwether.

And, since two thirds of the economy is consumer-related, the trucking business also offers a window into consumer spending habits.

The slowdown in trucking could easily have been anticipated, given the data points mentioned above, along with the earnings warning from FedEx (FDX - Annual Report) and weaker pricing for corrugated boxes.  One reason to watch so many different indicators is to be able to spot when a given data point should be given extra attention or ignored based on whether it supports everything else that is known.

Topics: YRC Worldwide (YRCW), Arkansas Best (ABFS), Landstar Systems (LSTR), Transportation, Stock Market, Economy | 4 Comments

If Trucks Aren’t Carrying Anything, Who’s Buying Anything?

Several times we have commented on the transportation names, both for their own investment merits and as an indicator of overall economic activity. Since anything sold from any store is transported there by truck, a slowdown in trucking means stores are seeing no need to stock up. Barry Ritholtz makes that point when discussing the latest American Trucking Association tonnage data at The Big Picture | Truck Tonnage Plummets:

November 2006 marked the single worst month for for-hire truck tonnage since the last recession,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Both the month-to-month and year-over-year decreases indicate that the economic slowdown is in full gear. The most troubling number is the 8.8 percent contraction from November 2005, despite the fact that year-over-year comparisons are difficult due to the very robust volumes during the same month last year. One month certainly doesn’t make a trend, but if we continue to see year-over-year reductions of similar magnitudes in the next couple of months, it could indicate a greater economic slowdown than economists are projecting at this point.”

Naturally, a tonnage slowdown is bad news for truckers. Investors who are into the relative game, can play the non-asset based names like Landstar (LSTR - Annual Report) and CH Robinson (CHRW - Annual Report). Those who simply prefer positive absolute returns may want to steer clear of the whole group.

Disclosure: Author holds put options on FedEx (FDX - Annual Report) and Union Pacific (UNP) and is short put options on Landstar (LSTR - Annual Report).

Topics: Arkansas Best (ABFS), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Union Pacific (UNP), YRC Worldwide (YRCW), Landstar Systems (LSTR), FedEx (FDX), United Parcel Service (UPS), Stock Market | 3 Comments

Landstar cuts profit forecast

We have written several times about asset-light trucking company Landstar (LSTR.) Today, Landstar lowered its profit forecast.
Landstar cuts profit forecast, cites weak economy | Reuters.com

Trucking company Landstar System Inc. (LSTR.O: Quote, Profile , Research) lowered its fourth-quarter earnings forecast on Monday, citing signs of a slowing U.S. economy and the absence of the usual surge in business at this time of year.In a conference call with investors, Landstar lowered its forecast for the fourth quarter to a range of 44 cents to 49 cents a share, down from a forecast of 47 cents to 53 cents issued Oct. 19.

In the second half of October and the first half of November in particular, “we saw abnormally lower demand than we have historically experienced in this time frame,” Chief Executive Officer Henry Gerkens told investors.

However, demand has recently shown signs of recovering, he added.Gerkens attributed the lower demand to a slowdown in the construction and automotive sectors and, to a lesser extent, in the manufacturing sector.

As we said in other posts, the reason we like Landstar is that trucks are expensive. When they sit idle, the owner still has to make payments on it (even if only in the form of non-cash depreciation expense.) Maintenance costs also don’t entirely go away, though they are reduced some. When revenue slows down or drops, the fixed portion of maintaining a vehicle fleet weighs on earnings.

For the non-asset based transportation providers like Landstar or CH Robinson, these expenses fall to the independent contractors. So while there may be less profit due to less revenue it will still be more profit than there would have been if they had to maintain a fleet.

Today’s news doesn’t change our opinion much. Although Landstar will earn less it is unlikely they will report a loss. The same cannot be said for other trucking companies that own large fleets. Those are the names we would worry about.

Disclosure: We bought put options on FedEx (FDX - Annual Report).

Topics: YRC Worldwide (YRCW), Arkansas Best (ABFS), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Landstar Systems (LSTR), United Parcel Service (UPS), Transportation, FedEx (FDX), Stock Market | 1 Comment

Bleak Holiday Forecast Not What the Doctor Ordered

The closest we have come to making a holiday sales forecast is to say that we are worried about consumer spending. However, we are well aware that American consumers are resilient beasts, especially come holiday time. So we exercise the caution we believe is due but don’t make any big bets that there will be a big slowdown. Not so for some others, however:
Electronics Holiday Sales May Be Ho-Hum: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

A fierce battle is brewing for consumer-electronics dollars this holiday season as two new video game consoles join the widening mix of TVs, cameras, portable music players, computers and cell phones.But some market watchers say the electronics industry could be running up against a season that’s more ho-hum than ho-ho.

Analysts predict revenues are slowing for several reasons: prices for a range of products, most notably flat-panel TVs, have dropped significantly; hits of previous years, such as digital cameras, are maturing; supplies of the new game systems are limited; and no other new blockbuster products seem to have emerged.

“I call it the storm before the storm,” Chris Crotty, a senior consumer electronics analyst at market researcher iSuppli Corp. said of the holiday quarter. “There is more competition. There are more products out there and it’s only going to get worse.”

All of that could translate to better bargains for consumers but less money for gadget makers.

That’s funny. It was only June that iSupply was forecasting strong holiday sales.  We noted at the time:

The seasonal slowdown story doesn’t hold much water, because supposedly the Olympics and World Cup were going to drive unseasonably high demand for flat panel televisions this year. Hopes now rest on the fourth quarter holiday season, and fingers are crossed that the US consumer will carry the day.

But now the fingers may have been double-crossed. In addition to iSupply’s warning and mixed economic news from the consumer front, truckers have warned that holiday shipments to retailers are coming later than expected - if, that is, they come at all.

Photo: attack_the_tissue_paper6657, originally uploaded by doviende.

Topics: Corning (GLW), YRC Worldwide (YRCW), Arkansas Best (ABFS), Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH), Apple (AAPL), Semiconductors, Technology, Stock Market, Transportation, Economy | No Comments

Carnival de los Carnivales

We made the honor roll at the Carnival of Business this week with our post saying now is not the time to own a truck.

Counter Intuit-ive earned a highlight at the Carnival of Investing.

This week’s Carnival of Personal Finance is so hugemongous you’ll have to keep your eyes peeled to find out why Starbucks continues to do so well.

The Festival of Stocks relayed our message not to fight the tape on Plantronics.

We warned the Carnival of Fraud about KLA-Tencor’s earnings report.

Topics: Arkansas Best (ABFS), KLA-Tencor (KLAC), Intuit (INTU), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), YRC Worldwide (YRCW), Plantronics (PLT), Transportation, Starbucks (SBUX), Landstar Systems (LSTR), Stock Market | No Comments

I Would Not Own Green Eggs or Yellow Trucks

We told you now is not the time to own a truck.  Continuing the trend this earnings season, truck-owning YRC Worldwide (formerly known as Yellow) expects margins to be hurt by a slowdown in shipping.
YRC Worldwide 3Q Profit Rises 12 Percent: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

Transportation company YRC Worldwide Inc., whose brands include Yellow Transportation and Roadway, said Thursday its third-quarter profit rose 12 percent on lower expenses, as revenue edged up 3 percent.But the company issued a disappointing outlook, sending its shares down 41 cents to $38.79 in aftermarket trading. They closed up 39 cents at $39.20 in regular Nasdaq trading.

For the full year, YRC projects a profit of $5.45 to $5.55 per share on revenue of about $10 billion. In July the company had projected year earnings of $5.65 to $5.85 per share on revenue of $10 billion.

That is a $0.20 per share guidance reduction with just one quarter left in the year. Next year’s EPS could be $1.00 or more less than current estimates bake in. As we said before, trucks cost money even when they aren’t being used. As the economy slows, those companies like CH Robinson (CHRW - Annual Report) and Landstar (LSTR - Annual Report) that get their capacity from independent contractors on an as-needed basis have lower overhead expenses and remain profitable. If the economy slows much further, Yellow’s guidance reductions will be even larger.

Topics: Arkansas Best (ABFS), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), YRC Worldwide (YRCW), Landstar Systems (LSTR), Transportation, Stock Market | No Comments

Not the Time to Own a Truck

Yahoo! Finance reports:

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc., (CHRW - Annual Report) which provides transportation and logistics services, said Tuesday third-quarter earnings grew 30 percent as gross profit grew across all segments. Revenue rose 15 percent to $1.71 billion, from $1.49 billion last year.

Like Landstar (LSTR - Annual Report), CH Robinson is a trucking company that doesn’t own trucks. Instead, it relies on independent truck owners to carry the loads it sources.  And like Landstar it was able to turn a nice revenue increase into an equally nice earnings increase (for Landstar we are talking about revenues excluding their hurricane relief efforts last year). This contrasts with traditional truckers like Arkansas Best (ABFS) which increased revenue by 11% but had its shares beaten up when the company reported that volume was slowing.

CH Robinson shares are up in after-hours trading though they also saw the volume slowdown. In their press release they noted:

Our growth in truck net revenues slowed as the quarter progressed. While gross profit margins were consistent throughout the quarter, volume growth slowed. A significant amount of the volume in the second half of 2005 was driven by a robust spot market. In the third quarter and through the first three weeks of October 2006, we have not seen the same level of spot market demand.

The thing is, trucks are expensive. When they sit idle, the owner still has to make payments on it (even if only in the form of non-cash depreciation expense.) Maintenance costs also don’t entirely go away, though they are reduced some. When revenue slows down or drops, the fixed portion of maintaining a vehicle fleet weighs on earnings.

For the non-asset based transportation providers like Landstar or CH Robinson, these expenses fall to the independent contractors. So while there may be less profit due to less revenue it will still be more profit than there would have been if they had to maintain a fleet.

Photo: Clearance 12 feet 4 inches, originally uploaded by Beige Alert.

Topics: Arkansas Best (ABFS), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Landstar Systems (LSTR), Stock Market, Technology, Economy | 1 Comment
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