March 29th, 2007
With the end of the first quarter approaching, it is time to adjust the names in our Watch Lists. We will price all the new lists as of the close on Friday, March 30. Today we present our planned updates to the Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy).
As with the Small Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy), we were surprised at the amount of turnover in our screens. Only 7 of the original 29 names made the cut for the new list (which comes in at only 24 names.) Part of the reason for the turnover was to reduce the overlap between the Small Cap and Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy)s. Now there is only one-third overlapping names rather than two thirds. Furthermore, given the level of outperformance we saw in the first quarter (actually just two months) and the fact that much of those gains were achieved early, perhaps the turnover is warranted.
So without further ado, the names on the chopping block from the previous list are:
Silgan Holdings (SLGN - Annual Report); Middleby (MIDD); Olin (OLN); Vector Group (VGR); Sanderson Farms (SAFM); Tesoro (TSO); Downey Financial (DSL); Waddell & Reed (WDR); Gamco (GBL); Apria Healthcare (AHG); Quest Diagnostics (DGX); ITT Educational Services (ESI); Equifax (EFX); Delhaize Group (DEG); Papa John’s (PZZA); Rent-a-Center (RCII); Cato Corp (CTR); Dassault Systemes (DASTY); Ingram Micro (IM); Energy East (EAS); South Jersey Industries (SJI - Annual Report); and American States Water (AWR).
The new list is:

Topics:
Sanderson Farms (SAFM),
Tesoro (TSO),
Quest Diagnostics (DGX),
Olin (OLN),
Energy East (EAS),
Papa John's (PZZA),
Rent-A-Center (RCII),
Cato (CTR),
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF),
Delhaize Group (DEG),
FirstFed Financial (FED),
Nutri Systems (NTRI),
Grey Wolf (GW),
UST,
American States Water (AWR),
Dassault Systemes (DASTY),
South Jersey Industries (SJI),
ITT Educational Services (ESI),
Apria Healthcare Group (AHG),
Silgan (SLGN),
Middleby (MIDD),
AutoZone (AZO),
NVR (NVR),
Gamco (GBL),
Landstar Systems (LSTR),
Valassis Communications (VCI),
Helix Energy Solutions (HLX),
Travelzoo (TZOO),
Vector Group (VGR),
Downey Financial (DSL),
Waddell and Reed (WDR),
Steel Dynamics (STLD),
Shuffle Master (SHFL),
SEI Investments (SEIC),
Equifax (EFX),
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February 28th, 2007
Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) member South Jersey Industries (SJI - Annual Report) reported earnings that exceeded consensus estimates.
South Jersey Industries (NYSE: SJI) today announced income from continuing operations for 2006 of $72.3 million, and restated income from continuing operations of $39.8 million in 2005. Earnings per share from continuing operations for 2006 totaled $2.47 compared with the prior year period restated at $1.40. The restatement of 2005 results, which was previously announced in an SEC Form 8-K filing on February 14, 2007, reflected a downward adjustment of $8.8 million, or $0.31 per share, due to the elimination of hedge accounting treatment for our commodity derivative positions.Our on-going practice will be to provide supplementary information to reflect the economic value, as opposed to the marked-to-market value, of all of our commodity derivative transactions with the establishment of a non-GAAP measure called “Economic Earnings.” Economic Earnings, which eliminates all unrealized gains or losses on commodity derivative transactions, rose 9% to $54.0 million, or $1.85 per share, for 2006 compared with $49.5 million, or $1.74 per share, for 2005.
The consensus estimate for 2006 was for $1.84 in economic earnings. No balance sheet or cash flow statement was presented with the earnings release, leaving little opportunity for further analysis.
January 25th, 2007
We asked, but no one answered. So we are taking our own counsel and breaking our Watch List into three portfolios: Small Cap, Mid Cap and Large Cap. Each will be tracked against the relevant S&P index going forward from their collective inception date of January 31 (priced at the close of market trading that day.)
For your viewing pleasure, the Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy) (to be measured against the S&P 400) follows.

Astute observers will notice a significant overlap between the names in the Small Cap Watch List and this one. In fact, of the 29 names on the Small Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy), 19 are included among the 29 names in the Mid Cap Watch List (Track at Marketocracy). The main reason is that we ran our screens against the criteria in the relevant indices rather than the names in the indices. Since the largest market cap in the S&P Small Cap is $3.5 billion and the smallest market cap in the S&P Mid Cap is $600 million, there is room for a good deal of overlap if one is willing to accept it.
In addition, we will provide a “quick and dirty” analysis of each name, with a goal of one such analysis per day. As the name implies, the quick and dirty analysis will be incomplete. We are hoping you will join in the debate and fill the gaps in our analysis.
Topics:
New Jersey Resources (NJR),
Olin (OLN),
Energy East (EAS),
Cato (CTR),
Papa John's (PZZA),
Rent-A-Center (RCII),
Sanderson Farms (SAFM),
Tesoro (TSO),
South Jersey Industries (SJI),
American States Water (AWR),
Dassault Systemes (DASTY),
Delhaize Group (DEG),
Quest Diagnostics (DGX),
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF),
ITT Educational Services (ESI),
Apria Healthcare Group (AHG),
Middleby (MIDD),
SEI Investments (SEIC),
Silgan (SLGN),
NVR (NVR),
Landstar Systems (LSTR),
Gamco (GBL),
Equifax (EFX),
Ingram Micro (IM),
Downey Financial (DSL),
Waddell and Reed (WDR),
Vector Group (VGR),
Tempur-Pedic (TPX),
Steel Dynamics (STLD),
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